人口与消费对碳排放影响的分析模型与实证

从消费压力人口视角探讨碳排放问题,有利于正确判断和把握气候变化压力的人文因素,以及人口与消费可持续发展的动力学机制.本文通过对STIRPAT模型的扩展,应用岭回归方法计量分析人口、消费及技术因素对碳排放的影响.对我国1980至2007年碳排放情况的统计实证结果表明,扩展的STIRPAT模型对中国国情有较高的解释力.居民消费水平、人口城市化率、人口规模三个因素对我国碳排放总量的变化影响明显;现阶段我国居民消费水平与人口结构变化对碳排放的影响力已高于人口规模变化的影响力,居民消费水平与消费模式等人文因素的变化有可能成为我国碳排放的新的增长点;技术进步因素在此模型中对我国该阶段碳排放的解释力有限,表明我国未来通过技术进步减缓碳排放的潜力巨大.     

中国环境污染与经济增长的实证研究

本文基于我国1981-2007年环境污染与经济增长的相关数据,利用时间序列研究方法对我国EKC进行实证研究,说明建立EKC模型可能存在的问题。为弥补EKC模型中环境不影响经济的假设与变量难以量化的不足,运用VAR模型研究二者的动态关系。EKC研究结果表明:EKC是一种客观现象,而不是一般规律;与人们生产生活关系密切的污染物更有可能出现EKC特征。VAR脉冲响应和方差分解的动态分析结果与二者相互作用机理相符:一方面我国经济增长通过规模效应、结构效应、技术效应等因素影响环境;一方面随着人们环境质量需求弹性的增加,政府对环境质量的重视,环境对企业生产行为的约束机制正逐步形成,但可能由于人们通过自身消费影响产出的作用有限和环境政策实施存在滞后性等原因,这种机制的形成存在一定滞后。     

Dynamic Tracking and Comprehensive Evaluation on the Natural Resources Security Elements and System in China

System theory,pressure-state-response and drivingpressure-state-impact-response model have been applied to establishing China's dynamic tracking evaluation system of natural resources security in this article.Based on analytic hierarchy process and Delphi methods,the natural resources security situation has been evaluated systematically from 1991 to 2007.The result showed that the overall level of China's natural resources security presented a downtrend from 1991 to 2007.The basic reasons are the pressure indicators such as population,GDP,natural resources trade increased gradually,resulting in tension and fragility of natural resources security.     

区域经济重心及 COD、SO_2、TSP排放重心演变路径分析——以江苏省为例

运用重心模型,采用1996~2006年江苏省经济和环境数据,计算出各年份GDP、工业产值、COD、SO ₂和TSP排放重心坐标,揭示江苏省经济重心和环境污染排放重心变化轨迹及演变规律,以期为江苏省环境宏观战略决策及生态省建设提供理论参考。研究表明,经济重心总体上向东南方向偏移,GDP重心偏移距离为14.81 km,工业产值重心偏移距离为12.84 km;经济重心在南北方向上的偏移程度大于东西方向的偏移程度。环境污染排放重心也向东南方向偏移,COD和TSP排放重心轨迹呈现较大变化,SO2排放重心轨迹变动较小;COD排放重心偏移距离为79.26 km,SO₂排放重心偏移距离为15.73 km,TSP排放重心偏移距离为42.24 km;各污染排放重心轨迹在不同时段表现出不同特点。COD、SO₂和TSP排放重心相对于经济重心偏向于西北方向,且COD排放重心近年来明显趋向于工业产值重心;COD排放重心和TSP排放重心与经济重心存在着强正相关.     

湖北“两圈”区域发展可持续性评价与预测

利用可持续发展指数（SDI）对湖北“两圈”各市州发展现状进行了评价,而后利用9年的人均生物资源生态承载量年平均增长率、人口年平均增长率和足迹承载量比值年平均增长率及2006年相关数据对未来44年进行了预测。结果表明,截至2006年底,湖北省有一半以上国土面积的生物资源开采超过当地土地负荷,人均生物资源生态承载量持续下降,资源日益紧张,呈不可持续发展;武汉城市圈2006年生物资源生态足迹超出生物资源生态承载量的32%;鄂西生态文化旅游圈（简称：鄂西生态圈）除襄樊、荆州、荆门因人口多,生物资源生态足迹较大等原因导致SDI值较高外,其他市州的SDI值均较低;神农架的SDI最小;武汉城市圈人均生物资源生态承载量呈负增长,人口控制较好,足迹承载量比值增长较快;鄂西生态圈人均生物资源生态承载量呈负增长,增长速率大于武汉城市圈和湖北省,人口控制较差,足迹承载量比值增长较慢;按照现有发展模式,无论是武汉城市圈还是鄂西生态圈,无论其当前发展是可持续性还是不可持续的,未来他们都将进入不可持续的发展状态。因此,对“两圈”进行规划时要根据各自发展现状制定长期、科学的发展规划.     

New Development in Study of the Faustmann Optimal Forest Harvesting

Chinese forest resources have become very scarce in the face of rapid economic growth demand, while the reform of collective forest right system is in full swing across the country. It will directly affect the regeneration level of forest resources and the diverse ecological value functions. In this article, the mainstream model paradigm of forest economics, that is, the basic framework of the Faustmann model and its evolution process are made in a more detailed explanation, especially the extended model in...     

Quantification of the interactions between Ca,Hg and extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) of sludge

The interactions between metals (Ca²⁺ and Hg²⁺) and extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) extracted from the aerobic and anaerobic sludge in wastewater treatment reactors were investigated using a combination of zeta potential measurement and 3-dimensional excitation–emission matrix (EEM) fluorescence spectroscopy with parallel factor (PARAFAC) analysis. Results show that Ca²⁺ had no substantial effects on the EEM fluorescence spectra of the EPS, but their zeta potentials increased with the increasing Ca²⁺ dosage. However, Hg²⁺ had a significant effect on the EEM fluorescence spectra of the EPS, while their zeta potentials seemed not to be affected by the dose of Hg²⁺. The interactions between Hg²⁺ and EPS were elucidated using the fluorescence quenching with PARAFAC analysis, while the interactions between Ca²⁺ and EPS were evaluated by the zeta potential technique. The binding constants for Hg²⁺ and EPS were two orders of magnitude higher than those for Ca²⁺ and EPS, suggesting that the binding mechanisms between Ca²⁺ and EPS were different from those between Hg²⁺ and EPS. The results might be useful for understanding the roles of EPS in bacterial self-protection against heavy metals and the aggregate formation mechanisms through ionic bridging interactions.     

改性沸石对低浓度氨氮废水的动态吸附

采用氯化钠溶液对甘肃白银天然沸石改性,以低浓度氨氮(NH4+-N)废水为处理对象,对比了天然沸石和改性沸石的动态吸附特性并绘制穿透曲线,利用Origin软件对实验数据分析处理,得出穿透曲线的通式。结果表明:在相同条件下,改性沸石的穿透时间和吸附饱和时间都比天然沸石的长约1.5倍;沸石经氯化钠改性后,对NH4+-N的吸附速率和饱和吸附量都明显提高,吸附性能显著改善。Origin软件对水溶液中NH4+-N的吸附穿透曲线的Logistic模型回归式具有较高的精度,该模型可以很好地反映沸石吸附剂的动态吸附过程。     

动态污水处理过程的多模型动态矩阵控制

针对活性污泥法污水处理系统的强耦合和动态变化特性,提出一种用于前置反硝化脱氮工艺的多模型动态矩阵(DMC)解耦控制方法;通过K-均值聚类分析法对外界入水中氨氮浓度进行聚类,获得以聚类中心为入水氨氮浓度的静态模型集合,分别设计线性DMC解耦控制器;再以当前时刻外界进水氨氮浓度和聚类中心为基本元素,构造切换函数,实现多模型切换。将该方法应用于活性污泥1号模型(ASM1)中,获得了较好的动态仿真效果。     

Nitrous oxide and methane emission from a flooded rice field as influenced by separate and combined application of herbicides bensulfuron methyl and pretilachlor

Combination of divergent active principles to achieve broad-spectrum control is gaining popularity to manage the weed menace in intensive agriculture. However, such application could have non-target impacts on the soil processes affecting soil ecology and environmental interactions. A field experiment was conducted to investigate the impact of separate and combined applications of herbicides bensulfuron methyl and pretilachlor on the emission of N₂O and CH₄, and related soil and microbial parameters in a flooded alluvial field planted to rice cv Lalat. Single application of the herbicide bensulfuron methyl or pretilachlor resulted in a significant reduction of N₂O and CH₄ emissions while the combination of these two herbicides distinctly increased N₂O and CH₄ emissions. Cumulative N₂O emissions (kg N₂O-N) followed the order of bensulfuron methyl (0.35 kg ha⁻¹) < pretilachlor (0.36 kg ha⁻¹) < control (0.45 kg ha⁻¹) < bensulfuron methyl 0.6% + pretilachlor 6.0% single dose (0.49 kg ha⁻¹) < bensulfuron methyl 0.6% + pretilachlor 6.0% double dose (0.54 kg ha⁻¹). Cumulative CH₄ emissions (kg CH₄), on the other hand, followed the order of bensulfuron methyl (47.89 kg ha⁻¹) < pretilachlor (73.17 kg ha⁻¹) < bensulfuron methyl 0.6% + pretilachlor 6.0% single dose (93.50 kg ha⁻¹) < control (106.54 kg ha⁻¹) < bensulfuron methyl 0.6% + pretilachlor 6.0% double dose (124.67 kg ha⁻¹). The inhibitory effect of separate application of herbicides bensulfuron methyl 0.6% and pretilachlor 6.0% on N₂O emission was linked to lower mineral N, lower denitrifying and nitrifying activity and low denitrifier and nitrifier populations. Inhibitory effect on CH₄ emission, on the contrary, was linked to prevention in the drop of redox potential, lower readily mineralizable carbon (RMC) and microbial biomass carbon (MBC) contents as well as lower methanogenic and higher methanotrophic bacterial population. Admittedly, stimulatory effect of combined application of herbicides bensulfuron methyl 0.6% and pretilachlor 6.0% at double dose on N₂O and CH₄ emission was related to reversal of the identified indicators of inhibition. Results indicate that while individual application of herbicides bensulfuron methyl 0.6% or pretilachlor 6.0% can reduce N₂O and CH₄ emission from flooded soil planted to rice, their combined application at normal dose can keep the emission at a comparatively lower level with significantly higher grain yield as compared to the herbicides applied alone.