FLOOD CONTROL RESERVOIR OPERATIONS UNDER ENVIRONMENTAL RESTRAINTS1

ABSTRACT: A flood control reservoir protects valuable developments on the downstream flood plain by storing flood waters and releasing them at a rate that will reduce the downstream damage. The water surface level of the flood pool behind the dam can fluctuate considerably during the occurrence of a large magnitude flood causing the inundation of trees, low vegetation, and water based recreation facilities located in those areas of the flood pool area that are normally well above the water level. The amount of damage that will occur in the upper levels of the flood storage area will depend on the depth and duration of the inundation that occurs. This, in turn, is directly related to the operating policy for the reservoir. A dynamic programming optimization model of flood control reservoir operation is presented. This model determines the reservoir operating schedule that minimizes downstream flood damages. Various constraints are added to the model to account for the environmental impacts of long periods of flood storage.     

Effectiveness of Corridors Relative to Enlargement of Habitat Patches

Abstract:  The establishment of biological corridors between two otherwise isolated habitat patches is a common yet contentious strategy for conserving populations in fragmented landscapes. We compared the effectiveness of corridors with the effectiveness of an alternate conservation strategy, the enlargement of existing habitat patches. We used a spatially explicit population model that simulated population size in two kinds of patches. One patch had a corridor that connected it to a larger "source" patch and the other patch was unconnected and enlarged at the periphery by an area the same size as the corridor. Patch isolation, corridor width, patch size, and the probability that individuals would cross the border from habitat to matrix were varied independently. In general, population size was greater in enlarged patches than in connected patches when patches were relatively large and isolated. Corridor width and the probability of crossing the border from habitat to matrix did not affect the relative benefit of corridors versus patch enlargement. Although biological corridors may mitigate potential effects of inbreeding depression at long time scales, our results suggest that they are not always the best method of conserving fragmented populations.     

Incorporation of Recreational Fishing Effort into Design of Marine Protected Areas

Abstract:  Theoretical models of marine protected areas (MPAs) that explore benefits to fisheries or biodiversity conservation often assume a dynamic pool of fishing effort. For instance, effort is homogenously distributed over areas from which subsets of reserves are chosen. I tested this and other model assumptions with a case study of the multiple-use Jervis Bay Marine Park. Prior to zoning of the park I conducted 166 surveys of the park's recreational fisheries, plotting the location of 16,009 anglers. I converted these plots into diagrams of fishing effort and analyzed correlates between fishing and habitat and the effect of two reserve designs—the draft and final zoning plans of the park—on the 15 fisheries observed. Fisheries were strongly correlated with particular habitats and had negatively skewed and often bimodal spatial distribution. The second mode of intensely fished habitat could be 6 SD greater than the fishery's mean allocation of effort by area. In the draft-zoning plan, sanctuary zone (no-take) area and potential subduction of fishing effort were similar. In the final plan, which was altered in response to public comment, the area of sanctuary zone increased, and the impact on fishing effort decreased. In only one case was a fishery's most intensely targeted location closed to fishing. Because of the discriminating manner with which fishers target habitats, if simple percentage targets are used for planning, sanctuary location can be adjusted to avoid existing fishing effort. According to modeled outcomes, the implication of this may be diminished reserve effectiveness. To address this, reserve area should be implicitly linked to subducted fishing effort when promoting or modeling MPAs.     

区域综合环境风险评价方法体系研究

为准确识别环境事故风险因子扩散规律及环境风险主导因素,本研究将环境风险的3个主体“风险源-介质-受体”作为系统层,结合层次分析法（AHP）与时序加权平均算子（TOWA）建立动态模型计算标准层指标贡献率,最后基于空间地理特性确定指标层,加权计算单项风险,进而建立区域综合环境风险评价方法体系,并以南京市为案例研究对象进行综合环境风险评估.结果表明,南京市整体呈现一般风险水平,风险水平的高值区主要分布在靠近长江的江北新区核心区、南京主城区.该方法在保证指标体系评估完整性的同时,引入了区域时空特征,提高了区域环境风险管理的精细化与空间可视化程度.     

振动试验扩展台的设计与动力学分析

目的验证碗型工装和板型工装结构在动力学试验方面的优劣。方法由于导弹舱段进行振动、冲击、加速度等动力学试验时,不能直接安装在台面结构上,需要设计和优化工装进行固定安装。针对某弹体舱段试验用的工装进行结构设计,并通过有限元仿真分析得出前六阶模态的频率和振型方式,判别碗型和板型两种结构设计方式的优劣。同时,对设计工装的结构进行优化,得出加强筋对模态参数的影响。结果质量相同的碗型工装的各阶频率均高于板型工装,加强筋的优化方式对于碗型工装结构的前三阶模态频率提升25%左右。结论碗型的工装结构形式能够有效地传递力学信号,保证信号传递的均匀性,加强筋结构可以有效地增强工装结构的动力学性能。     

抖振载荷谱等效简化方法试验研究

目的对抖振疲劳载荷谱等效方法开展试验验证工作。方法给出从抖振载荷响应应力概率密度函数分区等效常规疲劳响应应力的计算公式,分别进行模拟抖振试验和定频悬臂弯曲疲劳试验,后者试验的控制参数需要根据计算的等效应力进行设置和调整,对比两个试验中试件寿命的一致性。结果形成了有效的试验方法,试验结果与理论设计基本一致,进一步根据试验现象,提出了试验的改进方案。结论该等效方法有效。     

太原市PM2.5预报统计修正模型及其应用检验

为提高太原市PM_2.5预报准确率,更好地服务于空气质量预报预警工作,在华北区域BREMPS（环境气象数值预报系统）预报结果的基础上,结合MR（多元线性回归）、BP（BP神经网络）和MLR（多层递阶）建立10 d的滚动修正模型,并对太原市2017年1月15日—4月15日ρ（PM_2.5）进行了修正.结果表明:3种修正模型对BREMPS预报的ρ（PM_2.5）小时值和日均值均有不同程度的改善,尤其是MLR修正结果在多项评价指标上明显优于MR和BP,其小时值的RMSE（均方根误差）由原来的42.46 μg/m3降至26.74 μg/m3,重污染和非重污染时段日均值的RMSE分别由未修正前的63.78、43.68 μg/m3降至28.52、21.27 μg/m3,日均值修正结果的基础评分从0.65升至0.88,预报准确率由原来的66.18%升至86.74%.从3种修正模型的构建来看,MR和BP方法对系统平稳状态的修正具有一定的优势,而对系统大幅变化的识别能力较弱,所以在天气变化时临界状态的修正结果误差较大,模型的稳定性较差.研究显示,MLR方法本身具有一定的自适应能力,稳定性和修正结果的整体趋势明显优于MR和BP方法,对太原市空气质量预报改进、重污染天气预警和大气污染防治等方面具有较大的应用价值.      

Jute bioblanket as a soil rehabilitation strategy in Sorocaba,Brazil: Soil chemistry and SWOT approaches

Soil erosion and the invasion of exotic plant species are major constraints to achieve sustainable development around the world. Currently, we find few products devoted concomitantly to combatting soil erosion as well as the establishment of unwanted exotic plants. In this paper, we introduce a new product, called herein a bioblanket, that protects the soil and impedes the establishment of exotic plant species. This product is of simple design, and to manufacture it, we use two biodegradable materials: jute tissue and grass wastes. We designed this product to combat soil erosion and the germination and establishment of new, unwanted, invasive plant species. In this paper, we describe our evaluation of how successful this product was in terms of improving the chemical attributes of soil. We also identified the product's potentialities and weaknesses by means of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis. The bioblanket ameliorated the chemical attributes of the soil, as evidenced especially by the neutralization of acidity (8.5%) and aluminum toxicity (33%), and by an increment in nutrients concentration. We argue that after adequate treatment and management, the residues of plants that are normally considered unwanted materials can be transformed into a raw material to control the propagation of unwanted plant species, and concomitantly control soil erosion while improving the chemical conditions of the soil. The improvement of the soil chemical attributes was one of the main positive effects reported through the SWOT analysis. In addition, the SWOT analysis revealed some features that need improvement in future generations of the product, but we argue that these features do not impede the benefits for the use of the product in its present form.     

城市污泥薄层干燥特性及动力学研究

通过污泥干燥实验,研究了污泥干燥过程中的形貌变化,考察了泥层厚度、温度、风速对污泥干燥特性的影响,并引入薄层干燥模型,采用MATLAB对污泥干燥的动力学过程进行模拟。结果表明:污泥中网络状的絮体结构不利于水分的蒸发;在泥层厚度为0.4 mm,将污泥含水百分比20%作为干燥终点时,干燥过程为恒速干燥,能够有效地降低干燥时间;提高温度和风速,可以提高污泥水分的表面蒸发速率,减少干燥时间;Page模型比其他模型更适合本次污泥干燥分析。应用Fick扩散模型,得到在温度50~70℃、泥层厚度0.4~2.0 mm条件下有效扩散系数的变化范围为1.13×10-9~8.90×10-9m2/s,并得到了有效扩散系数随厚度、温度变化的关系式。     

少载荷级数下桥式起重机桥架疲劳安全寿命研究

提出了一种针对少载荷级数作用下的桥式起重机桥架裂纹萌生寿命计算的新数值模拟方法。该方法利用ANSYS软件中的生死单元模拟吊重起升和小车运行,得到桥架在3级载荷作用下的瞬态应力响应,将应力数据集导入到疲劳软件FE-SAFE中,根据多轴局部应力应变算法,基于Morrow平均应力修正下的Brown Miller损伤模型,对32t/A6桥式起重机桥架进行疲劳分析。计算结果表明,桥架疲劳寿命满足使用要求,疲劳失效主要发生在端梁腹板的拐角处。