重大危险源动态监管与应急救援平台建设研究

由于缺乏相关的国家及行业标准规范,各地重大危险源监管与应急救援平台建设中主要存在如下问题:其一,只重视硬件建设,而忽视软件和信息建设;其二,重大危险源安全监管数据采集标准不统一,采用的相关软件和硬件技术不规范,难以在各级平台间实现数据共享。笔者参照重大危险源4级监管与应急救援体系,将国家科技攻关课题的相关研究成果同安全生产工作的实际需要有机地结合,提出重大危险源动态监管和事故应急救援平台建设方案。分析我国重大危险源监管及应急救援系统的建设现状及存在的主要问题;提出平台的设计原则、实现数据共享的主要思路;设计软件系统总体规划及各部分的功能。     

多因素耦合条件下硫化矿自燃神经网络动态预测模型研究

硫化矿石自燃是多种因素、多场耦合综合作用的结果,是一典型的非线性问题。笔者应用人工神经网络技术,以Matlab软件为平台,通过现场调查和理论分析,建立了矿石含硫量、通风强度、环境温度3因素与硫化矿石自燃之间的预测模型;通过数据样本学习与部分现场监测数据相结合进行模拟,研究表明预测数据与实测结果基本吻合,误差控制在10%以内,取得了较好的效果。该研究为预防硫化矿石自燃提供一个新的思路和方法,具有一定的理论意义和应用价值。     

Possible Extinction Vortex for a Population of Iberian Lynx on the Verge of Extirpation

Abstract: Theory suggests that demographic and genetic traits deteriorate (i.e., fitness and genetic diversity decrease) when populations become small, and that such deterioration could precipitate positive feedback loops called extinction vortices. We examined whether demographic attributes and genetic traits have changed over time in one of the 2 remaining small populations of the highly endangered Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) in Doñana, Spain. From 1983 to 2008, we recorded nontraumatic mortality rates, litter size, offspring survival, age at territory acquisition, and sex ratio. We combined these demographic attributes with measures of inbreeding and genetic diversity at neutral loci (microsatellites) and genes subjected to selection (major histocompatibility complex). Data on demographic traits were obtained through capture and radio tracking, checking dens during breeding, track surveys, and camera trapping. For genetic analyses, we obtained blood or tissue samples from captured or necropsied individuals or from museum specimens. Over time a female‐biased sex ratio developed, age of territory acquisition decreased, mean litter size decreased, and rates of nontraumatic mortality increased, but there were no significant changes in overall mortality rates, standardized individual heterozygosity declined steadily, and allelic diversity of exon 2 of class II major histocompatibility complex DRB genes remained constant (2 allelic variants present in all individuals analyzed). Changes in sex ratio and age of territory acquisition may have resulted from demographic stochasticity, whereas changes in litter size and nontraumatic mortality may be related to observed increases in inbreeding. Concomitant deterioration of both demographic attributes and genetic traits is consistent with an extinction vortex. The co‐occurrence, with or without interaction, of demographic and genetic deterioration may explain the lack of success of conservation efforts with the Doñana population of Iberian lynx.     

Small cetacean bycatch as estimated from stranding schemes: The common dolphin case in the northeast Atlantic

Death in fishing gear of non-target species (called ‘bycatch’) is a major concern for marine wildlife, and mostly worrying for long-lived species like cetaceans, considering their demographic characteristics (slow population growth rates and low fecundity). In European waters, cetaceans are highly impacted by this phenomenon. Under the Common Fishery Policy, the EC 812/2004 regulation constitutes a legal frame for bycatch monitoring on 5–10% of fishing vessels >15 m. The aim of this work was to compare parameters and bycatch estimates of common dolphins (Delphinus delphis) provided by observer programmes in France and UK national reports and those inferred from stranding data, through two approaches. Bycatch was estimated from stranding data, first by correcting effectives from drift conditions (using a drift prediction model) and then by estimating the probability of being buoyant. Observer programmes on fishing vessels allowed us to identify the specificity of the interaction between common dolphins and fishing gear, and provided low estimates of annual bycaught animals (around 550 animals year⁻¹). However, observer programmes are hindered by logistical and administrative constraints, and the sampling scheme seems to be poorly designed for the detection of marine mammal bycatches. The analyses of strandings by considering drift conditions highlighted areas with high levels of interactions between common dolphins and fisheries. Since 1997, the highest densities of bycaught dolphins at sea were located in the southern part of the continental shelf and slope of the Bay of Biscay. Bycatch numbers inferred from strandings suggested very high levels, ranging from 3650 dolphins year⁻¹ [2250–7000] to 4700 [3850–5750] dolphins year⁻¹, depending on methodological choices. The main advantage of stranding data is its large spatial scale, cutting across administrative boundaries. Diverging estimates between observer programmes and stranding interpretation can set very different management consequences: observer programmes suggest a sustainable situation for common dolphins, whereas estimates based on strandings highlight a very worrying and unsustainable process.     

Use of hydrodynamic models for the management of the Danube Delta wetlands: The case study of Sontea-Fortuna ecosystem

Due to its high biodiversity the Danube Delta, in Romania, is recognized as a UNESCO World Heritage Natural Site and it is listed as a RAMSAR wetland. The Danube River variable discharges have a great impact on the habitats and the overall ecological status of the delta. One of its most vulnerable parts, from both hydrodynamic and morphological point of view is the Sontea-Fortuna wetland located in the upstream of the Danube Delta. Sontea-Fortuna wetland is susceptible to both floods and droughts. On a long term, decision makers in the area need to know which measures to implement and how these will impact/improve the environment.This article presents how a 3D hydrodynamic model can be used as support for making sound decisions regarding the management of deltaic ecosystems. In particular, the methodology is applied on the Sontea-Fortuna wetland. The case study is part of a wider research in the area, which was developed within the EnviroGRIDS EU FP7 research project. EnviroGRIDS aimed at building capacity for scientists, decision-makers and the general public in the Black Sea Catchment, through collection and sharing of environmental data and models at the basin scale.     

Description and evaluation of a model of deposition velocities for routine estimates of dry deposition over North America. Part II: review of past measurements and model results

Numerical sensitivity tests and four months of complete model runs have been conducted for the Routine Deposition Model (RDM). The influence of individual model inputs on dry deposition velocity as a function of land-use category (LUC) and pollutant (SO₂, O₃, SO²⁻₄ and HNO₃) were examined over a realistic range of values for solar radiation, stability and wind speed. Spatial and temporal variations in RDM deposition velocity (V_d) during June – September 1996 time period generated using meteorological input from a mesoscale model run at 35 km resolution over north-eastern North America were also examined. Comparison of RDM V_d values to a variety of measurements of dry deposition velocities of SO₂, O₃, SO²⁻₄ and NHO₃ that have been reported in the literature demonstrated that RDM produces realistic results. Over northeastern NA RDM monthly averaged dry deposition velocities for SO₂ vary from 0.2 to 3.0 cm s⁻¹ with the highest deposition velocities over water surfaces. For O₃, the monthly averaged dry deposition velocities are from 0.05 to 1.0 cm s⁻¹ with the lowest values over water surfaces and the highest over forested areas. For HNO₃, the monthly averaged dry deposition velocities have the range of 0.5 to 6 cm s⁻¹, with the highest values for forested areas. For SO²⁻₄, they range from 0.05–1.5 cm s⁻¹, with the lowest values over water and the highest over forest. The monthly averaged dry deposition velocities for SO₂ and O₃ are higher in the growing season compared to the fall, but this behaviour is not apparent for HNO₃ and sulphate. In the daytime, the hourly averaged dry deposition velocities for SO₂, O₃, SO²⁻₄ and HNO₃ are higher than that in the nighttime over most of the vegetated area. The diurnal variation is most evident for surfaces with large values for leaf area index (LAI), such as forests. Based on the results presented in this paper, it is concluded that RDM V_d values can be combined with measured air concentrations over hourly, daily or weekly periods to determine dry deposition amounts and with wet deposition measurements to provide seasonal estimates of total deposition and estimates of the relative importance of dry deposition.     

The centers of gravity and dynamic types of body shape of terrestrial invertebrates

In the framework of dynamic morphology theory, the centers of gravity and geometric centers of projections have been determined for the bodies of more than 182 forms of invertebrates, and these data have been used to distinguish four types of dynamic body shapes. It has been demonstrated that specific dynamic types of body shape are characteristic of individual taxa. In addition, there are a group of “transformers,” which may assume any dynamic type of shape, and a group of invertebrates with one predominant dynamic type.     

确定岩体斜坡滑动面抗剪强度的动态反分析方法

滑动结构面的抗剪强度在岩体滑坡的稳定性计算中是最重要的参数,也是最难以确定的。基于岩体抗剪强度是多种因素影响下的随机变量这一认识前提下,本文以西柏坡“中共中央解放军总部”旧址滑坡为例提出了确定岩体斜坡滑动面抗剪强度的动态反分析方法,并对该方法获得的抗剪强度的实用性进行了分析。结果表明,反分析方法是获得岩体斜坡滑动面抗剪强度的最经济、合理的途径。     

序批式动态膜生物反应器处理低碳氮比废水的试验研究

以序批式动态膜反应器为研究对象,对其处理低碳氮比废水的效果进行了试验研究.试验温度为19 ～ 21℃,MLSS为3～5g/L;好氧阶段溶解氧质量浓度为2 ～4 mg/L,厌氧阶段溶解氧质量浓度为0.2～0.5 mg/L;水力停留时间共12 h,其中好氧阶段8h,厌氧阶段4h.结果表明:当进水COD、TN和NH4+-N质量浓度分别为250～300mg/L、103 ～ 156 mg/L和92～140 mg/L时,反应器对上述污染物表现出较高且稳定的去除效率,COD、TN和NH4+-N平均去除率分别达到76.15％、82.16％和90.13％.同时,反应器系统中污泥的比硝化速率与常规处理装置中的活性污泥相比较高,以NH4+-N的降解量计为0.101 d-1,以NO3--N的积累量计为0.091 d-.     

Dynamic behaviour of direct spring loaded pressure relief valves in gas service: II reduced order modelling

A previous study of gas-service direct-spring pressure relief valves connected to a tank via a straight pipe is continued by deriving a reduced-order model for predicting oscillatory instabilities such as valve flutter and chatter. The reduction process uses collocation to take into account a finite number N of acoustic pressure waves within the pipe, resulting in a set of 2N+3 ordinary differential equations. Following a novel non-dimensionalization, it is shown analytically that the model can exhibit, at experimentally realistic parameter values, instabilities associated with coupling between the valve and acoustic waves in the pipe. The thresholds for each instability are such that for a given flow rate, the first mode to go unstable as the inlet pipe length increases is the quarter-wave mode, then a three-quarter wave, a 5/4-wave etc. Thus the primary mode of instability should always be due to the quarter wave. In the limit of low flow rates, a simple approximate expression is found for the quarter-wave instability threshold in the form of inlet pipe length against mass flow rate. This threshold curve is found to agree well with simulation of the full model. For higher flow rates there is a need to include fluid convection, inlet pressure loss and pipe friction in order to get good agreement. The reduced model enables the dependence of the stability curve on key dimensionless physical parameters to be readily computed.