基于风网的自学习动态监测系统分析

煤矿井下巷道风速是随时变化的,主要规律是一种围绕某一平均值的上下起伏的平稳随机过程,其表现为平均风速和脉动风速,风速传感器最大限度地反映了井下主要巷道风速信息。我们将井下风速传感器与通风解算技术相结合,对全矿井的风网进行实时计算,从而得到了全矿井较准确的实时分风量分布状况。系统能够将风速传感器采集到的实时风速转换为巷道的实时风量,根据月风量统计结果进行巷道阻力系数的自动调整;系统采用相关分析技术,测定煤矿井下数据之间相关关系和规律,并据此建立预分析测模型,进而进行风量的预测和控制;系统具有自我学习功能,通过不断修正模型参数,将实时井下探测数据用于分析和预测,为安全管理提供有效指导。     

南京及邻近地区新近沉积土的动剪切模量和阻尼比的试验研究

通过对南京及其邻近地区漫滩相成因的粘土、粉质粘土、淤泥质粉质粘土、粉质粘土与粉砂互层土、粉土、粉细砂等 6类新近沉积土的自振柱试验 ,详细探讨了围压大小、剪应变水平、土的颗粒组成和结构性对这 6类新近沉积土的剪切模量G及阻尼比λ的影响。通过与Seed和Idriss建议的砂土G/Gmax～γ和λ～γ曲线变化范围的对比 ,结果表明 ,不能将粉质粘土与粉砂互层土简单地当作砂土或粉质粘土对待。通过试验和理论分析 ,给出了南京及其邻近地区 6类新近沉积土动剪切模量和阻尼比随剪应变变化的平均曲线的拟合曲线、包络线及其参数的推荐值 ,对实际工程具有一定的借鉴作用     

基于变权综合理论的天然气管道动态风险评价

为对天然气管道进行有效的风险评估,提出基于变权综合理论的天然气管道动态风险评价法。利用故障树分析法(FTA)确定天然气管道不同时间空间下的主要风险因素,实时更新风险指标体系;同时引入变权综合原理,建立权重跟随指标值动态变化的变权赋值模型;然后对天然气管道进行综合评定,确定管道当前状态的风险程度。以陕京3线中某管段为例进行分析,得出该管段当前风险等级为中等,在后期运行中应被重点监控。变权赋值与动态指标体系的结合使该方法能实时反映管道风险状况,并适用于天然气管线各段。     

应用动态模型确定酸沉降临界负荷的探讨

任何一个天然生态系统都是一个稳定系统.在一定酸沉降量的作用下,生态系统最终会平衡在一个新的稳定状态.动态模型可以模拟不同酸沉降量下生态系统化学状态的变化趋势.根据信号与系统理论,这种趋势可以用一阶指数衰减函数进行模拟,以得到系统达到稳定状态时的化学指标值.根据不同酸沉降量和所对应的稳态化学指标值之间的剂量-响应曲线,可以求出当系统稳态化学指标值达到临界化学值时的酸沉降量,即为系统的酸沉降临界负荷.应用这种方法,以MAGIC模型为例,计算了四川峨眉山顶水和重庆南山湖泊的硫沉降临界负荷,分别为1.54和6.5     

考虑保护层响应的炼化过程系统风险动态转移模型

为适时、有效地控制炼化过程系统风险,以模糊Petri网(FPN)为基础,针对炼化系统动态退化性和系统中保护层对风险转移的干预性,建立考虑保护层响应的炼化过程系统风险动态转移模型。描述基于FPN的保护层作用动态机制,分析炼化系统在保护层干预下,从非正常干扰触发开始至炼化系统退化过程的风险变化趋势。最后通过正己烷缓冲罐案例分析验证模型。结果表明:正己烷缓冲罐在开始运行的30 000 h内,系统风险等级呈阶段性变化,在工作的前16 800 h,风险为Ⅰ级;第16 800~27 600 h,风险为Ⅱ级;第27 600~30 000 h,风险为Ⅲ级。     

The impact of coal and non-coal consumption on China's energy performance improvement

China is the world's largest energy consumer, and coal accounts for a higher proportion of the country's total energy consumption, yet during its 12th five-year plan (2011–2015), the coal share among total energy consumption significantly decreased. Previous studies exploring energy performance typically used energy consumption as an input, but this lacks the analytical capacity for the structure of energy consumption. Thus, this study splits energy input into two different inputs, coal consumption and non-coal energy consumption, and based on their differences with other variables, uses the hybrid dynamic data envelopment analysis model to assess the energy performance of China's provincial industrial sector during the period 2011 to 2015. We then compare coal consumption's and non-coal consumption's rooms for improvement and conclude that provinces in eastern and central China should reduce the amount of coal consumption, thereby improving energy performance. Conversely, provinces in the western region should target a balance between energy utilization efficiency and coal consumption.     

Numerical simulation of small-scale pool fires of LNG

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) has been largely indicated as a promising alternative solution for the transportation and storage of natural gas. In the case of accidental release on the ground, a pool fire scenario may occur. Despite the relevance of this accident, due to its likelihood and potential to trigger domino effects, accurate analyses addressing the characterization of pool fires of LNG are still missing.In this work, the fire dynamic simulator (FDS) has been adopted for the evaluation of the effects of the released amount of fuel and its composition (methane, ethane, and propane), on the thermal and chemical properties of small-scale LNG pool fire. More specifically, the heat release rate, the burning rate, the flame height, and thermal radiation, at different initial conditions, have been evaluated for pool having diameter smaller than 10 m. Safety distances have been calculated for all the investigated conditions, as well.Results have also been compared with data and correlations retrieved from the current literature. The equation of Thomas seems to work properly for the definition of the height over diameter ratio of the LNG pool fire for all the mixture and the investigated diameters.The addition of ethane and propane significantly affects the obtained results, especially in terms of radiative thermal radiation peaks, thus indicating the inadequacy of the commonly adopted assumption of pure methane as single, surrogate species for the LNG mixture.     

A study of the precursors leading to ‘organisational’ accidents in complex industrial settings

This study aggregates the narrative findings from the investigation of 12 accidents or ‘near hits’ across a wide range of industrial settings to build a catalogue of organisational and cultural precursors to accidents. It was found that many were important factors in multiple events. It is argued that by addressing these potential vulnerabilities using the findings and proposed tools based upon them, organisations undertaking safety related activities will not only develop greater awareness of these deeper-lying issues but should be able to better control the risks associated with them.The precursors have been classified under eight headings and examples of key findings from three of these are presented. Statements providing potential defences against the identified vulnerabilities have been developed which should enable organisations to scrutinise the adequacy of existing expectations or requirements within their business. Probing questions have been developed based on the statements which should allow an assessment to be made as to whether these have been ‘embedded’ in the organisation.It is argued that organisational vulnerability tools should be developed to enable a systematic approach to ‘diagnosing’ incubating precursors. It is also argued that there is the potential for further resilience to be achieved through the use of models of the complex dynamics of socio-technical processes within organisations.