A study of the precursors leading to ‘organisational’ accidents in complex industrial settings

This study aggregates the narrative findings from the investigation of 12 accidents or ‘near hits’ across a wide range of industrial settings to build a catalogue of organisational and cultural precursors to accidents. It was found that many were important factors in multiple events. It is argued that by addressing these potential vulnerabilities using the findings and proposed tools based upon them, organisations undertaking safety related activities will not only develop greater awareness of these deeper-lying issues but should be able to better control the risks associated with them.The precursors have been classified under eight headings and examples of key findings from three of these are presented. Statements providing potential defences against the identified vulnerabilities have been developed which should enable organisations to scrutinise the adequacy of existing expectations or requirements within their business. Probing questions have been developed based on the statements which should allow an assessment to be made as to whether these have been ‘embedded’ in the organisation.It is argued that organisational vulnerability tools should be developed to enable a systematic approach to ‘diagnosing’ incubating precursors. It is also argued that there is the potential for further resilience to be achieved through the use of models of the complex dynamics of socio-technical processes within organisations.     

Incorporating evolutionary processes into population viability models

We examined how ecological and evolutionary (eco‐evo) processes in population dynamics could be better integrated into population viability analysis (PVA). Complementary advances in computation and population genomics can be combined into an eco‐evo PVA to offer powerful new approaches to understand the influence of evolutionary processes on population persistence. We developed the mechanistic basis of an eco‐evo PVA using individual‐based models with individual‐level genotype tracking and dynamic genotype–phenotype mapping to model emergent population‐level effects, such as local adaptation and genetic rescue. We then outline how genomics can allow or improve parameter estimation for PVA models by providing genotypic information at large numbers of loci for neutral and functional genome regions. As climate change and other threatening processes increase in rate and scale, eco‐evo PVAs will become essential research tools to evaluate the effects of adaptive potential, evolutionary rescue, and locally adapted traits on persistence.     

基于热湿交换理论的巷道风流温、湿度影响因素研究

为了研究巷道风流参数的影响因素、预测风流温湿度的变化规律,结合热湿交换理论,建立了风流与围岩壁面之间热湿交换的数学模型,以及贴体坐标系下围岩内部温度场的导热微分方程;利用数值方法,将围岩内部的导热问题与影响风流参数变化的热湿交换问题耦合起来,并以大柳塔煤矿52505综采工作面为例进行计算,得到了与实测参数较为一致的模拟结果,验证了该数值方法的有效性。研究结果表明:风流温度受原始岩温、入风流温度、局部热源强度等因素的影响,风流相对湿度与入风流温、湿度以及井下湿源的数量和强度有关;巷道壁温作为将围岩温度场与风流参数之间关联起来的主要因素,对模拟结果影响较大,其数值取决于壁面与风流之间热湿交换以及围岩原始岩温。     

Fe2+EDTA溶液络合-铁还原脱除烟气中NO

提出了“Fe2 螯合剂络合-铁粉还原-酸吸收”回收法脱除烟气中NO的新工艺,重点研究了模拟烟气中O2体积分数对NO络合量的影响,以及铁粉用量、铁粉粒径、搅拌速度对NO脱除效率的影响,确定了最佳的铁粉脱氮工艺条件,并对铁粉和铁屑的脱氮效果进行了比较。结果表明,烟气中O2的体积分数从0%增加到4.2%,NO络合量下降90.2%;NO脱除效率随铁粉用量和反应器搅拌速度的增加而增加,随铁粉粒径的增加而降低;过程的最佳工艺参数为,铁粉用量0.8g,铁粉粒径≤0.077mm,搅拌速度900r·min-1,在此条件下,对O2体积分数为5%的模拟烟气在搅拌反应器中可取得90%以上的NO脱除效率;用铁粉在1台搅拌反应器中取得的NO脱除效率和用铁屑在2个鼓泡反应器串联时所取得的效率相当。     

应用系统动力学原理制定小流域经济建设决策

本文应用系统动力学原理，就太平沟小流域资源的开发利用进行了系统分析，绘制了ＳＤ模型流程图，编制了ＳＤ模型程序，经微机模拟仿真，确定了“综合型”发展为该流域资源开发利用方向，为该类型区小而域经济建设及两高一优农业发展提供了科学依据和方法。     

采果期甜椒氮素营养特性及分配规律

利用^15N示踪技术研究了水培甜椒果实收获期间吸收的氮素在体内的动态分配规律。结果表明：甜椒果实收获期间营养器官与生殖器官干物质积累动态呈一平行的线性增长趋势，果实干物质积累量于始采期以后开始超过叶片，而果实氮素积累到盛采期才超过叶片，果实含氮量在整个采果期间保持稳定，随生长发育，叶片含氮迅速下降，盛采期时与果实和根相近，且均高于茎和侧枝，始采期通过根吸收的标记态氮主要贮存在叶片与果实中，叶片、果实是甜椒始采用氮素分配的最主要器官。此后，叶片和根成为主要的氮素输出器官，而果实则成为主要的输入器官。研究发现，甜椒体内的氮即使一度成为结合态，能能够被再度输出，但是，氮素在植株体内滞留的时间越长，越难以再度向外输出，并且不同器官输出的难易程度也是不相同的，比较而言，叶片和根中一度成为结合态的氮素容易被再交输出，甜椒果实是氮的强力库，氮素竞争力最强。     

北京城市生态系统的能值动态分析

采用能值理论与分析方法,对北京市1990~2001年间的能值结构动态进行了分析,并采用人均能值、能值密度、生态功能潜力、人口基本承载力、能值自给率、能值货币比率、环境负载率、输入能值比等重要能值指标对该时期北京市城市生态系统的能值状况作了详细分析。研究表明,北京城市生态系统正处于较高发展水平,已基本跨入发达国家水平的行列;但高强度、快速发展给本市带来了巨大的生态环境压力,未来北京的可持续能力建设已势在必行。文章也提出了北京城市生态系统可持续发展能力建设的基本方向。     

鼓翅皱膝蝗生态学特性研究

在甘肃省夏河县对鼓翅皱膝蝗的种群结构、数量变动、空间格局及动脉进行了系统研究。鼓翅皱膝蝗1a发生1代，以卵在土中越冬，翌年5月中旬开始孵化出土，6月上旬达到出土高峰，此期蝗虫种群仅由1龄和2龄蝗蝻组成，其中1龄蝗蝻占81.8％，2龄蝗蝻占18.2％，成虫于7月上旬开始羽化，8月上旬达到羽化高峰，此期的成虫数量达61.3％，而蝗蝻仅占38.7％，蝗蝻期约为72d，成虫寿命54d左右，每雌平均产卵32.6粒。鼓翅皱膝蝗在草地上属聚集分布，蝗蝻发生期种群的空间动态主要表现出扩散趋势，但初孵化出土时有短暂的聚集行为。取食量随龄期增大而增大，每头鼓翅皱膝蝗取食牧草量蝗蝻期平均为1.5g，成早期约为5.8g，成早期的食量是蝗蝻期的3.7倍。表3参12     

37个含硫芳香族化合物理化参数的相关性分析

本文对37个含硫(S,SO,SO_2)芳香族化合物的理化参数作了统计分析,在水解速率常数k与取代基常数之间建立了几个多元回归方程,并根据各化合物的因子得分和实验设计方法为生物试验挑选出了8个有代表性的化合物。     

Study of the dynamics of estuarine and coastal waters using remote sensing: the Tinto-Odiel estuary, SW Spain

This paper deals with the application of satellite images to characterize some aspects of the circulation dynamics of the Tinto-Odiel estuary using turbidity patterns as ‘natural tracers’. 15 images (Landsat TM and Spot HRV) were processed to provide synoptic, instantaneous views of the circulation patterns under different environmental conditions. In addition, a comparison was made between results of oceanographic field work, using biplanes and fluorescent tracers, and satellite image turbidity patterns used as ‘ground truth’ data for specific hydroclimatic situations. This approach allowed (1) the identification and mapping of dynamic processes of interest during a theoretical tidal cycle, (2) the elaboration of additional information on the ‘flow schemes’ at the mouth of the estuary with improved spatial and temporal resolution, and (3) the supply of basic data to improve the knowledge of exchange processes between estuarine and coastal waters. The results of this study are considered to be useful for the management of the estuarine system.