环滇池截污干渠系统动力学模型研究

以系统动力学原理为基础,利用系统动力学软件Vensim构建了环滇池截污干渠系统动力学模型(SD模型),模拟了溢流污染的产生—排放—传输全过程。通过模拟6种不同控制方案下的溢流水量及溢流水中COD随时间的变化,对比各方案的优劣性,最终可为滇池流域合流制溢流污染控制提供技术参考。     

It is time for justice: How time changes what we know about justice judgments and justice effects

Organizational justice is an important determinant of workplace attitudes, decisions, and behaviors. However, understanding workplace fairness requires not only examining what happens but also when it happens, in terms of justice events, perceptions, and reactions. We organize and discuss findings from 194 justice articles with temporal aspects, selected from over a thousand empirical justice articles. By examining temporal aspects, our findings enrich and sometimes challenge the answers to three key questions in the organizational justice literature relating to (i) when individuals pay attention to fairness, including specific facets, (ii) how fairness judgments form and evolve, and (iii) how reactions to perceived (in)justice unfold. Our review identifies promising avenues for empirical work and emphasizes the importance of developing temporal theories of justice. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Investigation of activated carbon/ethanol for low temperature adsorption cooling

Commercially available adsorption cooling systems use water/silica gel, water/zeolite and ammonia/ chloride salts working pairs. The water-based pairs are limited to work above 0°C due to the water high freezing temperature, while ammonia has the disadvantage of being toxic. Ethanol is a promising refrigerant due to its low freezing point (161 K), nontoxicity, zero ozone depletion, and low global warming potential. Activated carbon (AC) is a porous material with high degree of porosity (500–3000 m²/g) that has been used in wide range of applications. Using Dynamic Vapour Sorption (DVS) test facility, this work characterizes the ethanol adsorption of eleven commercially available activated carbon materials for cooling at low temperature of ?15°C. DVS adsorption results show that Maxsorb has the best performance in terms of ethanol uptake and adsorption kinetics compared to the other tested materials. The Maxsorb/ethanol adsorption process has been numerically modeled using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and simulation results are validated using the DVS experimental measurements. The validated CFD simulation of the adsorption process is used to predict the effects of adsorbent layer thickness and packing density on cycle uptake for evaporating temperature of ?15°C. Simulation results show that as the thickness of the Maxsorb adsorbent layer increases, its uptake decreases. As for the packing density, the amount of ethanol adsorbed per plate increases with the packing density reaching maximum at 750 kg/m³. This work shows the potential of using Maxsorb/ethanol in producing low temperature cooling down to ?15°C with specific cooling energy reaching 400 kJ/kg.     

Towards Real‐Time Continental Scale Streamflow Simulation in Continuous and Discrete Space

The National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts floods at approximately 3,600 locations across the United States (U.S.). However, the river network, as defined by the 1:100,000 scale National Hydrography Dataset‐Plus (NHDPlus) dataset, consists of 2.7 million river segments. Through the National Flood Interoperability Experiment, a continental scale streamflow simulation and forecast system was implemented and continuously operated through the summer of 2015. This system leveraged the WRF‐Hydro framework, initialized on a 3‐km grid, the Routing Application for the Parallel Computation of Discharge river routing model, operating on the NHDPlus, and real‐time atmospheric forcing to continuously forecast streamflow. Although this system produced forecasts, this paper presents a study of the three‐month nowcast to demonstrate the capacity to seamlessly predict reach scale streamflow at the continental scale. In addition, this paper evaluates the impact of reservoirs, through a case study in Texas. Validation of the uncalibrated model using observed hourly streamflow at 5,701 U.S. Geological Survey gages shows 26% demonstrate PBias ≤ |25%|, 11% demonstrate Nash‐Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) ≥ 0.25, and 6% demonstrate both PBias ≤ |25%| and NSE ≥ 0.25. When evaluating the impact of reservoirs, the analysis shows when reservoirs are included, NSE ≥ 0.25 for 56% of the gages downstream while NSE ≥ 0.25 for 11% when they are not. The results presented here provide a benchmark for the evolving hydrology program within the NWS and supports their efforts to develop a reach scale flood forecasting system for the country.     

Trends in seabird breeding populations across the Great Barrier Reef

The Great Barrier Reef is an iconic ecosystem, known globally for its rich marine biodiversity that includes many thousands of tropical breeding seabirds. Despite indications of localized declines in some seabird species from as early as the mid-1990s, trends in seabird populations across the reef have never been quantified. With a long history of human impact and ongoing environmental change, seabirds are likely sentinels in this important ecosystem. Using 4 decades of monitoring data, we estimated site-specific trends for 9 seabird species from 32 islands and cays across the reef. Trends varied markedly among species and sites, but probable declines occurred at 45% of the 86 species-by-site combinations analyzed compared with increases at 14%. For 5 species, we combined site-specific trends into a multisite trend in scaled abundance, which revealed probable declines of Common Noddy (Anous stolidus), Sooty Tern (Onychoprion fuscatus), and Masked Booby (Sula dactylatra), but no long-term changes in the 2 most widely distributed species, Greater Crested Tern (Thalasseus bergii) and Brown Booby (Sula leucogaster). For Brown Booby, long-term stability largely resulted from increases at a single large colony on East Fairfax Island that offset declines at most other sites. Although growth of the Brown Booby population on East Fairfax points to the likely success of habitat restoration on the island, it also highlights a general vulnerability wherein large numbers of some species are concentrated at a small number of key sites. Identifying drivers of variation in population change across species and sites while ensuring long-term protection of key sites will be essential to securing the future of seabirds on the reef.     

A study of the blast wave shape from elongated VCEs

Elongated congestion patterns are common at chemical processing and petroleum refining facilities due to the arrangement of processing units. The accidental vapor cloud explosion (VCE) which occurred at the Buncefield, UK facility involved an elongated congested volume formed by the trees and undergrowth along the site boundary. Although elongated congested volumes are common, there have been few evaluations reported for the blast loads produced by elongated VCEs. Standard VCE blast load prediction techniques do not directly consider the impact of this congested volume geometry versus a more compact geometry.This paper discusses an evaluation performed to characterize the blast loads from elongated VCEs and to identify some significant differences in the resulting blast wave shape versus those predicted by well-known VCE blast load methodologies (e.g., BST and TNO MEM). The standard blast curves are based on an assumption that the portion of the flammable gas cloud participating in the VCE is hemispherical and located at grade level. The results of this evaluation showed that the blast wave shape for an elongated VCE in the near-field along the long-axis direction is similar to that for an acoustic wave generated in hemispherical VCEs with a low flame speed. Like an acoustic wave, an elongated VCE blast wave has a very quick transition from the positive phase peak pressure to the negative phase peak pressure, relative to the positive phase duration. The magnitude of the applied negative pressure on a building face depends strongly on the transition time between the positive and negative phase peak pressures, and this applied negative phase can be important to structural response under certain conditions. The main purpose of this evaluation was to extend previous work in order to investigate how an elongated VCE geometry impacts the resultant blast wave shape in the near-field. The influence of the normalized flame travel distance and the flame speed on the blast wave shape was examined. Deflagration and deflagration-to-detonation transition regimes were also identified for unconfined elongated VCEs as a function of the normalized flame travel distance and flame speed attained at a specified flame travel distance.     

Agent-based simulation of effects of stress on forest tent caterpillar (Malacosoma disstria Hübner) population dynamics

The forest tent caterpillar (Malacosoma disstria Hübner) (FTC) has an outbreak cycle of approximately 10 years; however, smaller spatial scale analyses show some regions have longer or more frequent periods of high defoliation. This may be a result of local forest fragmentation, pollution or other sources of stress that may affect FTC directly or indirectly through stress on their hosts or parasitoids. Population dynamics of FTC were examined to investigate how stress may alter the severity and frequency of defoliation. We developed a spatially explicit agent-based model to simulate the host-parasitoid dynamics of FTC. Theoretical and empirically derived parameters were established using past literature and over 50 years of population data of FTC from Ontario, Canada. We find that increasing FTC fecundity, FTC dispersal or parasitoid mortality resulted in more severe outbreaks while a decrease in parasitoid fecundity or searching efficiency resulted in an overall elevation of defoliation. Parasitoid efficiency was the most effective parameter for altering the FTC defoliation. Since plant stress has been shown to alter several of these parameters in nature due to changes in food quality, habitat suitability, and chemical cue interference, our results suggest that forests affected by stressors such as climate change and pollution will have more severe and frequent defoliation from these insects than surrounding unaffected forests. As stressors such as drought and pollution emissions are predicted to increase in frequency or intensity over the next few decades, understanding how they may affect the outbreak cycle of a forest defoliator can aid in planning strategies to reduce the detrimental effects of this insect.     

Impact of glyphosate on the development, fertility and demography of Chrysoperla externa (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae): Ecological approach

Few ecotoxicological studies have used life table analysis to evaluate the toxicity of pesticides on beneficial organisms. This study is the first report of the effect of the herbicide glyphosate on a predator insect, Chrysoperla externa, using a demographic approach. This predator is associated to soybean pests and has a potential role as a biological control agent in the Neotropical Region. The objective of this work was to evaluate the side-effects of glyphosate on the development, fertility and demography of C. externa, treated orally by ingestion of glyphosate-dipped eggs of Sitotroga cerealella in laboratory conditions. The data were analyzed using the age-stage, two-sex life table. Development from third larval instar to pupae and adult longevity were shorter in glyphosate-treatment than in the control. Adult pre-reproductive period was longer in glyphosate-treatment than in the control. Fecundity and fertility were deeply reduced, as well, being fertility greater affected. A high important reduction was registered in all population parameters. Most eggs from glyphosate-treated cohort looked abnormal, smaller than control, dehydrated and became black 2 d after oviposition. In addition, adults developed tumours in the abdomen region at 20 d after emergence, being the effect more drastic in females than males. It is beyond the scope of our study to speculate on the effects of this herbicide on C. externa field populations. However, it seems likely that populations under continuous use of glyphosate would be exposed at greater detrimental effects in the long term.     

Homology modeling of anti-parathion antibody and its interaction with organophosphorous pesticides and analogues

The mechanism of specific recognition in pesticide immunochemistry was investigated by computer-based strategy, and a rapid method for the identification of antibody specificity was developed. Based on the previously produced anti-parathion monoclonal antibody (mAb), the DNA sequence was analyzed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). From the translated amino acid sequences, a three-dimensional structure of the antibody was constructed by homology modeling method, and then it was coordinated by 1 ns molecular dynamics under the explicit solvent condition. The stereochemical property and folding quality were further assessed by Procheck and Profile-3D. The self-compatibility score for the antibody model was 98.7, which was greater than the low score 46.2 and close to the top score 102.6. In addition, parathion and several structural analogues were docked to the constructed antibody structure. The docking results showed that the interaction energy (-40.54 kcal/mol) of antibody-parathion complex was the lowest among all the tested pesticides, which accounted for the high specificity of the antibody to parathion and perfectly matched with the experimental data. Moreover, three residues, Phe165, Asp107 and Thr100 were recognized as the most important residues for antibody reacting with parathion. The interaction energy negatively correlated with the antibody specificity.     

我国森林资源产品流动及其变化特征分析

论文运用物流分析的基本思想,基于我国森林资源产品产量、贸易量统计资料,采用统一单位“原木当量”(m₃),估算了1981～2000年森林资源采伐和产品加工环节的资源流量,进而分析我国森林资源产品流动的变化特征。结果表明,我国从“六五”(1981～1985年)到“九五”(1996～2000年)期间,消耗森林资源量分别为10230×104、11678×104、13444×104和16962×104m₃/a,呈加速增长趋势。其中,来自国外的资源流量占总流量的比重呈增加趋势,“六五”期间占19.1%,到“九五”期间上升为48.3%。流入资源以原木、木浆、纸及纸板、胶合板为主,它们主要来自北美、东亚、东南亚地区,有来源多地区化的变化趋向。森林资源在“六五”期间主要流向原木锯材类产品加工,随着产品流向结构的逐步改善,更多的资源流向人造板类产品的生产消费;纸类产品生产消费的资源流量增加迅速,但主要来自国外。