地表参数设置对高架点源大气污染物扩散预测的影响研究

以某火电厂高架点源为例,运用AERMOD进行预测,对扇区进行粗划分和细划分,设置两组地表参数,分析SO2、NO2、PM10在敏感点的小时浓度、日均浓度和期间平均浓度最大值的差异.变化幅度分析方法表明,PM10的小时浓度、日均浓度、期间平均浓度最大值的变化幅度最大,NO2次之,SO2最小.高端值比较法分析表明,NO2小时浓度最大值的差异最大,SO2次之,PM10最小;NO2日均浓度最大值的差异最大,PM10次之,SO2最小;NO2期间平均浓度最大值的差异最大,SO2次之,PM10最小.     

广州市工业低碳化转型升级研究

利用系统动力学模型,结合情景分析法,对广州市2012年-2020年工业二氧化碳排放产生量进行模拟预测.通过调整广州市产业结构、科技投入水平、能源结构三个影响因子,设置三种情景模式,并模拟预测广州市工业二氧化碳排放量情况,通过对比分析发现三种情景都不能达到广州市2020年减排目标,在此基础上,结合广州市工业发展的实际情况,进一步调整三个影响因子参数,提出适合广州市工业发展的调整情景模式,从而根据研究提出广州市工业低碳化转型升级的对策措施及实施路径.     

Soil and Water Characteristics in Restored Canebrake and Forest Riparian Zones1

Andrews, Danielle M., Christopher D. Barton, Randall K. Kolka, Charles C. Rhoades, and Adam J. Dattilo, 2011. Soil and Water Characteristics in Restored Canebrake and Forest Riparian Zones. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):772‐784. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00555.x Abstract: The degradation of streams has been widespread in the United States. In Kentucky, for instance, almost all of its large streams have been impounded or channelized. A restoration project was initiated in a channelized section of Wilson Creek (Nelson Co., Kentucky) to return its predisturbance meandering configuration. A goal of the project was to restore the native riparian corridor with giant cane and bottomland forest species. The objective of this study was to evaluate the use of giant cane in riparian restoration and to compare water quality and soil attributes between restored cane and forested communities. Comparison of data to replicated sites of similar size in undisturbed upstream areas (control) was also examined to evaluate restoration success. Vegetation establishment was initially hindered by frequent flooding in 2004, but mean survival was good after two growing seasons with rates of 80 and 61% for forest and cane plots, respectively. Results showed an improvement in stream water quality due to restoration activities. Significant differences between the cane and forested plots in shallow groundwater dissolved oxygen, NO₃^?‐N, NH₄⁺‐N, and Mn concentrations suggest that soil redox conditions were not similar between the two vegetation types. Retention and transformation of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) within the restored riparian system also differed by vegetation treatment; however, both communities appeared to be advancing toward conditions exhibited in the control section of Wilson Creek.     

飞机地面积/除冰环境模拟与试验研究

飞机地面积冰是飞机进入冬季安全飞行的重要隐患,很多飞行事故都是因为没有清除飞机表面的积冰而造成的。基于对飞机地面积/除冰的真实环境的分析,在低温湿热试验箱中模拟积/除冰时的大气条件,对机翼积/除冰进行试验研究。通过改变环境温度、除冰液温度、流量、浓度等影响因素,利用光纤式结冰传感器得到不同环境条件下,除冰液参数对除冰过程的影响数据,并对这些数据进行了分析。试验结果表明该装置能有效地模拟飞机地面积/除冰过程,数据分析显示飞机地面结冰过程主要受外界环境温度,湿度(空气的水含量)的影响;对飞机地面除冰来说,除冰液温度参数是除冰效果达到最佳的关键因素。     

地铁车站客流流动机理研究与应用

为制定有效的地铁车站客流疏导方案及应急疏散预案,通过现场观测,结合录制的视频资料,分析人员流动的基本特点,提出人员流动类似于气体和液体的流动的现象,建立人员流守恒方程和流体动力学的连续模型,提出基于流体动力学的人员疏散理论模型。采用建立的数学模型和数值算法,开发了紧急疏散计算分析软件V1.0,对地铁车站站台的人员进行数值模拟分析,通过模拟结果与实际观测情况进行对比发现,模拟结果与实际观测情况基本相符,即车站站台上行楼梯口处为乘客拥堵的节点,并呈现客流叠加的现象。     

城市重大危机事件演化的动力学模型研究

建立了城市重大危机事件的＂事件链＂,并分析了＂事件链＂中各状态的相互关系。基于SEIS传染病模型的思想,提出了一类城市重大危机事件的动力学模型。分别在不考虑外部因素对事件链的影响和考虑外部因素对事件链的影响的情况下,对事件从正常状态到危机状态沿时间的发展趋势和规律进行了分析,并对解进行Lyapunov稳定性分析以及计算机模拟仿真。研究表明：系统自身的修复能力和外部因素对系统的影响是控制危机事件的重要因素。     

改进的HAZOP风险评价方法

HAZOP方法是一种使用简单却高度专业化、系统化,能够覆盖过程工业安全评价各个环节的危险辨识与评估方法。但是,HAZOP方法作为一种定性风险分析方法,仅仅是从定性方面分析装置中是否存在的潜在风险,对于存在的潜在风险,不能量化其严重度和可能性,HAZOP定量/半定量化分析成为本研究领域的发展趋势。本文从三个方面提出了改进HAZOP分析方法。首先,由于工艺参数和引导词构成偏差,根据工艺参数的分类,将偏差划分为数值型和逻辑型,进行了一步半定量化;其次,引入了毒性参数,对后果严重等级重新划分为五级;最后根据风险矩阵理论,运用风险矩阵C=X＋Y规则,计算出风险矩阵,按照风险评价的需要并且根据生产的实际安全管理状况,划分风险等级为四级,得到了新的风险矩阵,从而把HAZOP分析法从一种定性的方法改进为一种半定量的方法。     

A numerical model of wave- and current-driven nutrient uptake by coral reef communities

We developed a numerical model capable of simulating the spatial zonation of nutrient uptake in coral reef systems driven by hydrodynamic forcing (both from waves and currents). Relationships between nutrient uptake and bed stress derived from flume and field studies were added to a four-component biogeochemical model embedded within a three-dimensional (3-D) hydrodynamic ocean model coupled to a numerical wave model. The performance of the resulting coupled physical-biogeochemical model was first evaluated in an idealized one-dimensional (1-D) channel for both a pure current and a combined wave-current flow. Waves in the channel were represented by an oscillatory flow with constant amplitude and frequency. The simulated nutrient concentrations were in good agreement with the analytical solution for nutrient depletion along a uniform channel, as well as with existing observations of phosphate uptake across a real reef flat. We then applied this integrated model to investigate more complex two-dimensional (2-D) nutrient dynamics, firstly to an idealized coral reef-lagoon morphology, and secondly to a realistic section of Ningaloo Reef in Western Australia, where nutrients were advected into the domain via alongshore coastal currents. Both the idealized reef and Ningaloo Reef simulations showed similar patterns of maximum uptake rates on the shallow forereef and reef crest, and with nutrient concentration decreasing as water flowed over the reef flat. As a result of the cumulative outflow of nutrient-depleted water exiting the reef channels and then being advected down the coast by alongshore currents, both reef simulations exhibited substantial alongshore variation in nutrient concentrations. The coupled models successfully reproduced the observed spatial-variability in nitrate concentration across the Ningaloo Reef system.     

Modelling the spatial population dynamics of the green oak leaf roller (Tortrix viridana) using density dependent competitive interactions: Effects of herbivore mortality and varying host-plant quality

Cyclic population dynamics of forest insects with periods of more than two generations have been discussed in relation to a variety of extrinsic and intrinsic forces. In the present study, we employed the selection pressure of density dependent competitive interactions according to Witting's equations (Witting, 2000) as driver for a discrete spatiotemporal model of the green oak leaf roller (Tortrix viridana). The model was successfully parameterised to rebuild the cyclic population dynamics of an empirical data set of a 30-year leaf roller monitoring in Russia. Our analysis focussed on the role of herbivore mortality and host plant food quality, which have a significant effect on T. viridana population dynamics. An additional egg or larvae mortality lowers population density and can lead to selection pressures that favour individuals with higher growth rate. This increased population growth rate can not only compensate the additional mortality, but also can lead to higher average moth abundances in subsequent generations. Furthermore, we analysed the effect of inter- and intraspecific variation in host plant quality on herbivore population dynamics and the spatial distribution of abundance and defoliation patterns. We found significant effects of the qualitative composition of a trees neighbourhood on the herbivore population of the respective tree. Also, the patchy damage patterns observable in reality have been reproduced by the present model. The applicability of the model approach and the putative genetic processes underlying Witting's model are discussed.     

络合硫酸铜除藻剂应急治理水华对水质及鱼类的影响

在水华爆发严重时期,投加络合硫酸铜除藻剂对富营养化池塘进行应急治理,考察了投药后水体的水质动态变化及非洲鲫鱼对铜的富集作用。结果表明,水华在投药后得到了有效控制,ρ(叶绿素a)从298.98降至40.71μg.L-1,浊度从14.45降至5.70 NTU,投药期间水体ρ(Cu2+)低于0.3 mg.L-1;停止投药后10 d藻类生物量开始上升,叶绿素a浓度从40.71上升至125.29μg.L-1,浊度从5.70上升至12.15 NTU,22 d后水体ρ(Cu2+)低于检出限。非洲鲫鱼各组织对铜的富集能力从大到小依次为肝脏(512.50 mg.kg-1)、鳃(17.00 mg.kg-1)、肌肉,鱼肉中未发现明显的铜富集,停止投药后鱼鳃中铜富集量明显降低。