地铁车站客流流动机理研究与应用

为制定有效的地铁车站客流疏导方案及应急疏散预案,通过现场观测,结合录制的视频资料,分析人员流动的基本特点,提出人员流动类似于气体和液体的流动的现象,建立人员流守恒方程和流体动力学的连续模型,提出基于流体动力学的人员疏散理论模型。采用建立的数学模型和数值算法,开发了紧急疏散计算分析软件V1.0,对地铁车站站台的人员进行数值模拟分析,通过模拟结果与实际观测情况进行对比发现,模拟结果与实际观测情况基本相符,即车站站台上行楼梯口处为乘客拥堵的节点,并呈现客流叠加的现象。     

城市重大危机事件演化的动力学模型研究

建立了城市重大危机事件的＂事件链＂,并分析了＂事件链＂中各状态的相互关系。基于SEIS传染病模型的思想,提出了一类城市重大危机事件的动力学模型。分别在不考虑外部因素对事件链的影响和考虑外部因素对事件链的影响的情况下,对事件从正常状态到危机状态沿时间的发展趋势和规律进行了分析,并对解进行Lyapunov稳定性分析以及计算机模拟仿真。研究表明：系统自身的修复能力和外部因素对系统的影响是控制危机事件的重要因素。     

改进的HAZOP风险评价方法

HAZOP方法是一种使用简单却高度专业化、系统化,能够覆盖过程工业安全评价各个环节的危险辨识与评估方法。但是,HAZOP方法作为一种定性风险分析方法,仅仅是从定性方面分析装置中是否存在的潜在风险,对于存在的潜在风险,不能量化其严重度和可能性,HAZOP定量/半定量化分析成为本研究领域的发展趋势。本文从三个方面提出了改进HAZOP分析方法。首先,由于工艺参数和引导词构成偏差,根据工艺参数的分类,将偏差划分为数值型和逻辑型,进行了一步半定量化;其次,引入了毒性参数,对后果严重等级重新划分为五级;最后根据风险矩阵理论,运用风险矩阵C=X＋Y规则,计算出风险矩阵,按照风险评价的需要并且根据生产的实际安全管理状况,划分风险等级为四级,得到了新的风险矩阵,从而把HAZOP分析法从一种定性的方法改进为一种半定量的方法。     

A numerical model of wave- and current-driven nutrient uptake by coral reef communities

We developed a numerical model capable of simulating the spatial zonation of nutrient uptake in coral reef systems driven by hydrodynamic forcing (both from waves and currents). Relationships between nutrient uptake and bed stress derived from flume and field studies were added to a four-component biogeochemical model embedded within a three-dimensional (3-D) hydrodynamic ocean model coupled to a numerical wave model. The performance of the resulting coupled physical-biogeochemical model was first evaluated in an idealized one-dimensional (1-D) channel for both a pure current and a combined wave-current flow. Waves in the channel were represented by an oscillatory flow with constant amplitude and frequency. The simulated nutrient concentrations were in good agreement with the analytical solution for nutrient depletion along a uniform channel, as well as with existing observations of phosphate uptake across a real reef flat. We then applied this integrated model to investigate more complex two-dimensional (2-D) nutrient dynamics, firstly to an idealized coral reef-lagoon morphology, and secondly to a realistic section of Ningaloo Reef in Western Australia, where nutrients were advected into the domain via alongshore coastal currents. Both the idealized reef and Ningaloo Reef simulations showed similar patterns of maximum uptake rates on the shallow forereef and reef crest, and with nutrient concentration decreasing as water flowed over the reef flat. As a result of the cumulative outflow of nutrient-depleted water exiting the reef channels and then being advected down the coast by alongshore currents, both reef simulations exhibited substantial alongshore variation in nutrient concentrations. The coupled models successfully reproduced the observed spatial-variability in nitrate concentration across the Ningaloo Reef system.     

Modelling the spatial population dynamics of the green oak leaf roller (Tortrix viridana) using density dependent competitive interactions: Effects of herbivore mortality and varying host-plant quality

Cyclic population dynamics of forest insects with periods of more than two generations have been discussed in relation to a variety of extrinsic and intrinsic forces. In the present study, we employed the selection pressure of density dependent competitive interactions according to Witting's equations (Witting, 2000) as driver for a discrete spatiotemporal model of the green oak leaf roller (Tortrix viridana). The model was successfully parameterised to rebuild the cyclic population dynamics of an empirical data set of a 30-year leaf roller monitoring in Russia. Our analysis focussed on the role of herbivore mortality and host plant food quality, which have a significant effect on T. viridana population dynamics. An additional egg or larvae mortality lowers population density and can lead to selection pressures that favour individuals with higher growth rate. This increased population growth rate can not only compensate the additional mortality, but also can lead to higher average moth abundances in subsequent generations. Furthermore, we analysed the effect of inter- and intraspecific variation in host plant quality on herbivore population dynamics and the spatial distribution of abundance and defoliation patterns. We found significant effects of the qualitative composition of a trees neighbourhood on the herbivore population of the respective tree. Also, the patchy damage patterns observable in reality have been reproduced by the present model. The applicability of the model approach and the putative genetic processes underlying Witting's model are discussed.     

络合硫酸铜除藻剂应急治理水华对水质及鱼类的影响

在水华爆发严重时期,投加络合硫酸铜除藻剂对富营养化池塘进行应急治理,考察了投药后水体的水质动态变化及非洲鲫鱼对铜的富集作用。结果表明,水华在投药后得到了有效控制,ρ(叶绿素a)从298.98降至40.71μg.L-1,浊度从14.45降至5.70 NTU,投药期间水体ρ(Cu2+)低于0.3 mg.L-1;停止投药后10 d藻类生物量开始上升,叶绿素a浓度从40.71上升至125.29μg.L-1,浊度从5.70上升至12.15 NTU,22 d后水体ρ(Cu2+)低于检出限。非洲鲫鱼各组织对铜的富集能力从大到小依次为肝脏(512.50 mg.kg-1)、鳃(17.00 mg.kg-1)、肌肉,鱼肉中未发现明显的铜富集,停止投药后鱼鳃中铜富集量明显降低。     

不同施肥模式对芋艿产量及菜地土壤中氮素迁移累积的影响

以太湖流域的临安市太湖源镇具有代表性的大田蔬菜地为研究对象,通过9种不同施肥量模式的田间试验,探讨芋艿Colocasia esculenta L．Schoot季蔬菜地速效氮在土壤中的动态变化、剖面垂直分布及累积,了解施肥措施对蔬菜种植的生态及环境影响。各施肥处理均能提高芋艿产量,但增加幅度因施肥措施不同而不同,适量施肥已满足芋艿生长对养分的需求,继续增施对边际产量的增效不明显。在芋艿生长过程中,不同施肥模式下土壤中的铵态氮、硝态氮、速效氮质量分数动态变化的趋势不同;芋艿收获后,硝态氮、铵态氮、速效氮在土壤剖面中质量分数的垂直分布因氮肥投入水平的不同而有所差异;土壤剖面中速效氮的累积量与氮肥投入密切相关;综合评价来看,低量控释肥＋低量化肥是各施肥模式中比较具经济效益、环境效益的合理施肥模式;因而,在实际蔬菜生产中,要适量施用氮肥,适当采用混合施肥模式如低量控释肥＋低量化肥,防止因过量施用氮肥而导致硝态氮的过量累积及其带来的水环境污染等环境问题。     

2013年1月南京北郊霾天气溶胶的光学特性

2013年1月南京出现了长时间、大范围和高浓度的灰霾. 利用三波长光声黑碳光度计(PASS-3)对南京北郊气溶胶的吸收和散射系数进行实时在线原位观测. 结果表明,霾天气溶胶吸收和散射系数平均值分别为(83.20±35.24) Mm^-1和(670.16±136.44) Mm^-1,分别为清洁天的3.85倍和3.45倍. 吸收和散射系数均呈现早晚高中午低的双峰型日变化特征,单散射反照率和散射埃系数平均值分别为(0.89±0.04)和(1.30±0.27),说明霾天气溶胶主要以细粒子中的散射性物质为主. 降雨对气溶胶有明显的清除作用. 地面风速与气溶胶吸收和散射呈负相关关系,与单散射反照率和埃系数呈正相关; 东南风时气溶胶散射系数最大,西南风时气溶胶吸收系数最大. 3次霾污染事件中,Haze 1主要受来自北部的老化污染气团影响,Haze 2主要受来自西南的生物质燃烧污染气团影响,而Haze 3主要由固定源污染引起.     

杭州湾潮滩湿地3种优势植物碳氮磷储量特征研究

潮滩植物在碳氮磷生物地球化学循环中发挥着重要的作用.为探明杭州湾潮滩湿地植物碳氮磷储量特征,对植物生物量、碳氮磷含量及储量的季节动态进行了分析.结果表明,3种优势植物芦苇(Phragmites australis)、互花米草(Spartina alterniflora)和海三棱藨草(Scirpus mariqueter)地上生物量呈典型的单峰值曲线.地上部有机碳含量全年变化幅度相对较小,氮磷含量随植物生长而明显下降.植物碳氮磷储量与植物生物量显著正相关.海三棱藨草碳氮磷储量显著低于芦苇和互花米草,芦苇地上部总氮储量显著高于互花米草,但总磷储量则相反,有机碳储量两种植物差异不显著.芦苇、互花米草和海三棱藨草年固碳能力分别是中国陆地植被平均固碳能力的380%、376%和55.5%,以及全球植被平均固碳能力的463%、458%和67.7%.从净化氮磷功能上考虑,7月可认为是本研究区域3种植物的最佳收割时间,且以收获互花米草对水体富营养化的限制性因子磷的去处效果最佳.因此,潮滩植物具有较好的储碳固碳能力和氮磷净化效应.     

养猪废水培养微生物絮凝剂产生菌群B-737及发酵特性

用养猪废水作为产絮菌群B-737的廉价替代培养基,研究了养猪废水COD浓度、外加草酸铵、磷酸盐的量对B-737菌群生长和产絮效果的影响,并在最优培养基下进行发酵动力学模型拟合.结果表明,该养猪废水本身具有较合适的碳氮比(COD约为3 000 mg.L-1,TN约为170 mg.L-1),无需外加碳、氮源,只添加1.6 g.L-1K2HPO4,0.8 g.L-1KH2PO4时,菌群B-737在其中发酵18～24 h便能达到1.5 g.L-1产絮量,同时对废水本身COD、TN削减率分别为61.9%和53.6%.不仅将微生物絮凝剂的培养基成本降低90%左右,也为养猪废水提供了一条新的资源化途径.用Logistic和Luedeking-Piert方程分别研究产絮菌群B-737分批发酵的生长和产絮动力学,获得了相应的动力学模式.