云南盐津5.1级地震的地震活动前兆异常特征分析研究

对盐津5.1级地震的地震活动性、前兆异常特征进行了分析研究,主要为地震预测预报积累经验,提供地震预报依据.分析研究盐津地震活动在时间、空间和强度等方面的规律,从理论上认识地震前的地震前兆变化、形态表现等明显的异常特征.     

大巴山区早古生代地层和石煤中硒的化学活动性的初步研究

通过对大巴山区主要分布的早古生代地层中的碎屑岩，碳酸盐岩和石煤的原岩，风化岩，原生土壤的硒含量及其相关关系分析，及对南秦岭早古生代地层和石煤中硒的化学活动性进行了研究。结果表明：其岩石和石煤中的硒在地层环境下有较大的活动性，不同类型岩石中硒淋失率和硒的淋失量不同，富硒而淋失率低但淋失量高的下寒武统鲁家坪组和早志留世大贵坪组的炭质板岩和石煤的分布区土壤（主要为当地岩石的风化残积物）的含硒量可达10mg/kg，甚至更高，是大巴山的富硒带和硒中毒带，含硒低而且淋失率高的志留系砂岩和粉砂岩以及寒武系统砾屑灰岩分布区是大巴山区的低硒带。     

煤矿矸石山自燃监测预警系统的开发

研究的矸石山自燃监测预警系统由数据采集系统、无线数据传输系统和监测预警系统构成,可以通过对矸石温度的在线监测,依据温度场特征预测矸石的自燃趋势,判断自燃区域位置,有实用、先进、简单易行、便于维护的特点,具有较高的应用价值。     

海底重燃油对海胆繁殖及其子代发育的影响

利用室内流水式粘油砾石柱模拟实际环境中的海底重燃油,研究了重燃油污染的孔隙水对成年海胆繁殖力、配子质量及子代胚胎发育的影响.结果表明,暴露结束后（7d）,暴露组海胆的排配子率显著降低（P=0.033）,同时雌海胆繁殖力也显著降低（P=0.036,（1957917±811471）个卵细胞）;卵细胞的直径和精子的受精能力并未受到海底重燃油的影响.子代继续暴露48h,发现亲代暴露加剧了子代胚胎畸形程度,表明亲代暴露的毒性可传递给子代.进一步利用整合毒性指数（ITI）检测毒性传递的性别差异发现,与母本效应相比（24和48h子代的ITI分别为0.54~1.45和1.1~2.57）,父本效应（24和48h子代的ITI分别为0.82~1.95和1.89~4.04）在毒性传递过程中起着关键作用.     

贵州百花湖沉积物中磷的再迁移作用

本文通过百花湖沉积物柱芯不同化学相磷含量分布，孔隙水地球化学及早期成岩模式和通量估算等研究，揭示了磷在早期成岩过程中迁移，转化和富集规律，揭示某些湖泊表层沉积物几厘米磷蓄积浓度的增加与磷在早期成岩过程中的行为有关。     

An Analysis of the Daily Radial Activity of 7 Boreal Tree Species, Northwestern Quebec

In the `Des Vieux Arbres' ecological reserve situated within northwestern Québec, 40 band dendrometers were installedon 7 of the major boreal tree species. The late Spring–early Summer daily radial activity registered in 1997 was related todaily weather variables. For each tree species, the daily mean i) cumulative radial increment and ii) radial activity indexedseries obtained by first-difference standardization were analyzed. The results indicate the existence of strong similarities among the 7 species. All showed strong synchronousfluctuations in radius during late winter and early spring. Thisperiod ended with a short but sharp increase in radial increments that marked the passage of water into the stem. Thisinitial swelling, less obvious in Pinus species was followed by a prolonged period of little change in radial activity. Meteorological data indicated that air temperature waspositively related to stem swelling during the late winter–earlyspring period. Both air and soil temperatures became negatively related to radial expansion once the passage of water has occurred in the stem. Starting in early June, all species registered a sustained increase in radial increments possiblyassociated with active cell division. After this, radial expansion was negatively related to air temperature and positively to rainfall.     

燃气管线相邻地下空间安全监测方法及其应用研究

城市燃气管线泄漏极易导致火灾爆炸等重大安全事故,严重威胁城市安全。通过监测预警技术,快速准确地发现泄漏,防止可燃气体聚集,是保障燃气管线安全运行的重要手段。提出了一种燃气管线相邻地下空间安全监测预警方法,构建了风险识别、预测预警、分析推演和决策支持一体化安全监测系统,并应用于合肥市2.5 km燃气管线及其相邻空间高风险区域。结果表明,提出的燃气管线相邻地下空间安全监测方法可用于燃气管线泄漏监测预警,以减少或避免燃气泄漏引发的火灾爆炸事故。     

基于IPSO-BP的受损钢结构改造施工安全预警评估研究

为研究受损钢结构改造施工安全预警状况,建立受损情况下钢结构改造施工安全预警指标体系,并针对BP神经网络算法易陷入局部最优的问题,提出了用改进粒子群算法（IPSO）对BP神经网络权重及阈值进行调整的IPSO-BP安全预警评估模型。通过分析某单层重钢厂房受损现状,针对其结构损伤情况和已构建的安全控制指标体系进行数值模拟分析。研究结果表明:与传统的BP模型相比,IPSO-BP模型具有更好的预测能力,构建的安全预警指标体系及预警模型可以很好地对受损钢结构改造施工过程安全状况进行综合评估,对受损钢结构改造施工安全控制具有一定的参考价值。     

I will not go,I cannot go: cultural and social limitations of disaster preparedness in Asia,Africa, and Oceania

While much work has been invested in addressing the economic and technical basis of disaster preparedness, less effort has been directed towards understanding the cultural and social obstacles to and opportunities for disaster risk reduction. This paper presents local insights from five different national settings into the cultural and social contexts of disaster preparedness. In most cases, an early warning system was in place, but it failed to alert people to diverse environmental shocks. The research findings show that despite geographical and typological differences in these locations, the limitations of the systems were fairly similar. In Kenya, people received warnings, but from contradictory systems, whereas in the Philippines and on the island of Saipan, people did not understand the messages or take them seriously. In Bangladesh and Nepal, however, a deeper cultural and religious reasoning serves to explain disasters, and how to prevent them or find safety when they strike.     

下游集中补给型泥石流动力学特征与防治对策——以四川省泸定县干沟泥石流为例

干沟泥石流是一条典型的下游集中补给型泥石流沟,其物源的启动、流通与堆积在700 m范围内完成.以2005年干沟泥石流过程为例,应用三种计算公式对该沟泥石流的动力学参数进行了计算.通过计算发现,三种公式计算结果差别不大,并取其平均值作为计算结果.根据干沟泥石流流量计算和形态调查对比分析,认为2005年干沟泥石流的形成过程具有明显的堵溃效应,且前期降雨对泥石流的发生影响较为明显.在对干沟泥石流动力学参数计算、物源补给特征及形成过程分析的基础上,认为干沟在2005年后易形成高频泥石流,对该沟泥石流开展监测预警尤为必要,提出了该沟泥石流监测预警方式并予以实施,可为干沟泥石流的防灾减灾提供科学依据.