新型快滤装置处理初降雨径流的研究

本研究探索了人工快滤系统(简称CRI系统)处理初降雨径流污染的可行性。通过室内试验,比选出合适的滤料,对过滤参数进行优化,设计2种快滤模块,并运用于实际工程建设中。结果表明:粒径3～5mm河砂对SS、COD污染的去除效果良好。选取9L/(m2·s)为适宜过滤流量负荷,0.6m为合适滤料高度,模型装置对污水的处理效果良好。     

鄱阳湖湿地植被退化原因分析及其预警

2003年以来,鄱阳湖长期处于低枯水位状态,湖盆植被面积减少600km2;洲滩土壤含水量降低,旱生植物物种入侵,占据高程15m以上洲滩,湿地植被演变成中生性草甸,使物种大幅度增加;湿生和水生植物向湖中心下移,生长空间缩减;对水深、污染物敏感的植物群落的物种、生物量减少,生物多样性退化;对水深适应性强和耐污染的植物迅速扩张。无序采砂、防火烧荒、牲畜放牧加剧了这一局面。在气候变化和人类活动影响下,鄱阳湖湿地植被正在逐步退化。为了遏制这一退化现象,正在建立鄱阳湖健康评价体系与标准,加强植物群落固定断面和针对稀有物种、对水深和污染物敏感物种、危害湖泊健康物种进行专项监测,针对发现的问题,用遥感影像辨识、实地勘测研究分析全湖变化状况,判断其危害程度,提出防治对策,向相关部门和地区提出预警建议。     

数据缺失条件下基于MLP神经网络的水华风险预警方法研究

针对水华风险预警过程中相关监测指标数据缺失的问题,借鉴多元统计和随机分析构建了一种缺失数据插补方法,用于弥补现场调查数据的不足.基于主成分分析,对水华相关影响指标进行降维,确定水体水华风险预警模型的输入层变量.同时,采用多层感知器(MLP)人工神经网络模型对水华表征指标叶绿素a的浓度进行预测,并引入风险概率的概念,提出了水华风险概率计算公式,完善了水华预警的风险表达.最后以三峡库区典型支流大宁河为案例的研究证明了上述方法的可操作性.研究结果显示,插补数据条件下和未插补数据条件下的大宁河水华风险预警模型决定系数分别为0.9711和0.7769,前者的模型准确性更高,叶绿素a浓度预测效果更好;预测时段内大宁河11 d为水华蓝色预警(无警)级别,水华发生的风险概率为1.99%~18.61%;1 d达到水华橙色预警(中警)级别,水华发生概率为90.48%.     

不同季节大气可吸入颗粒物(PM_(10))诱导小鼠原代培养神经元炎性及其级联损伤效应

为了探讨不同季节可吸入颗粒物(PM10)对神经元的损伤效应,本研究通过建立小鼠大脑皮层原代神经元体外染毒模型,考察了不同季节PM10对炎性因子诱导型一氧化氮合酶(iNOS)、环氧化酶-2(COX-2)和黏附分子(ICAM-1)表达水平的影响,并探讨了与之耦联的磷酸化Ca2+/钙调蛋白依赖性蛋白激酶Ⅱα(p-Ca MKⅡα)、环磷腺苷效应元件结合蛋白(p-CREB)及即早基因(c-jun、c-fos)的表达情况.结果表明,PM10暴露刺激神经元炎性细胞因子释放增加,显著上调p-Ca MKⅡα和p-CREB的水平,并刺激即早基因的高表达,且以冬季PM10的效应最为明显.由此提示,PM10暴露可能通过炎症反应机制激活Ca2+-Ca MK-CREB通路,进而刺激即早基因表达引发神经毒性作用,而冬季PM10中多环芳烃类物质负荷可能是造成效应季节性差异的主要原因.     

高校债务风险预警模型构建及配套策略研究

高校银行贷款的风险防范，是一个关系到学校生存与发展的大问题，许多的防范策略都各有一定的实用价值．但传统的预警模型实用性不佳，主要是一些细节存在着理论缺陷，效果不显著．根据高校债务风险的基本状况，排出其风险预警体系的构成因素，对一般的风险预警模型，做出适度调整，引入债务负担率和债务依存度的概念，使预警模型更符合高校实际，能够很好地预警债务风险，以利防范．图2，参6．     

长输油气管线安全生产事故监测预警平台设计与实现

阐述了适用于长输油气管线安全生产事故应急救援全过程的事故监测预警平台的整体结构和实现要点,主要从长输油气管线的工作运行和事故特点出发,结合安全生产事故应急救援过程中各环节的业务需求,提出监测预警平台的建设目标和适用范围,对平台的需求进行分析,并进一步对平台的构建思路进行讨论。其中重点从应急预防、应急准备、应急响应和应急恢复四个阶段的应急任务和需求入手,提炼出长输油气管线安全生产事故监测预警平台在＂后端应急指挥中心＂、＂现场应急指挥中心＂及＂移动指挥所＂等多个位置和场景下的建设目标和功能框架,并对平台设计与实现过程中可能涉及到的平台总体结构设计、平台软硬件及网络支撑环境、平台数据采集传输与共享模式等方面进行了简要描述。     

基于景气指数法的中国环境承载力预警

针对目前环境承载力预警相关研究不足的问题,采用景气指数法构建针对我国环境承载力的预警方法体系,并对我国2001年~2014年的环境承载力预警进行实证研究：在此基础上对我国31个省（直辖市/自治区）（不含港澳台地区）2004~2014年的环境承载力预警进行实证研究.结果表明：本研究建立的预警系统结果与真实社会经济发展趋势和环境承载情况吻合良好,预警效果显著,方法具有一定的可行性;预警结果显示：我国各地区环境承载力状态有所差异,全国整体环境承载力承载状态趋好,但未来依然要警惕可能面临环境承载力的超载情况,采取相应措施,减少经济发展对环境造成的压力,提高环境自身承载能力.     

气候旱涝指标方法及其分析

在前人研究的基础上，提出了计算单站旱涝指标和区域旱涝指标的方法。并根据１９５１～１９９６年各月降水资料，对华北地区和长江流域地区的旱涝进行了计算和分析，取得了较好的结果。     

How do Consumers Perceive Electric Vehicles? A Comparison of German Consumer Groups

Abstract

Electric vehicles (EVs) are currently being discussed as a promising means to increase the energy efficiency and sustainability of today's transport systems. While technological progress and cost reduction are certainly crucial topics for their successful diffusion, consumer acceptance is another issue that warrants further analysis. Based on a large online survey (N?=?969), we compared four consumer groups which differ in their likelihood to purchase an EV with regard to their socio-demographic characteristics, their willingness to pay (WTP) and their perceptions of EVs. The findings indicate that early users in Germany are most likely to be middle-aged men living with their families in a multi-vehicle household who have a higher WTP for an EV. Perceived compatibility of an EV with personal needs seems to be the most influential factor on the stated willingness to purchase an EV. With regard to the promotion of EVs, strengthening their environmental advantages and providing financial incentives for purchase are rated as important measures by a majority of the sample, while performance characteristics which are comparable to conventional vehicles seem to be less important for most participants. Based on the data analyses, we provide recommendations for measures regarding the further development and promotion of EVs.     

Early action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions before the commitment period of the Kyoto protocol: advantages and disadvantages

Current “business as usual” projections suggest greenhouse gas emissions from industrialized nations will grow substantially over the next decade. However, if it comes into force, the Kyoto Protocol will require industrialized nations to reduce emissions to an average of 5% below 1990 levels in the 2008–2012 period. Taking early action to close this gap has a number of advantages. It reduces the risks of passing thresholds that trigger climate change “surprises.” Early action also increases future generations' ability to choose greater levels of climate protection, and it leads to faster reductions of other pollutants. From an economic sense, early action is important because it allows shifts to less carbon-intensive technologies during the course of normal capital stock turnover. Moreover, many options for emission reduction have negative costs, and thus are economically worthwhile, because of paybacks in energy costs, healthcare costs, and other benefits. Finally, early emission reductions enhance the probability of successful ratification and lower the risk of noncompliance with the protocol. We discuss policy approaches for the period prior to 2008. Disadvantages of the current proposals for Credit for Early Action are the possibility of adverse selection due to problematic baseline calculation methods as well as the distributionary impacts of allocating a part of the emissions budget already before 2008. One simple policy without drawbacks is the so-called baseline protection, which removes the disincentive to early action due to the expectation that businesses may, in the future, receive emission rights in proportion to past emissions. It is particularly important to adopt policies that shift investment in long-lived capital stock towards less carbon-intensive technologies and to encourage innovation and technology development that will reduce future compliance costs.