突发事件的不同演化模式研究

突发事件的发生常常伴随着次生事件,形成连锁反应,造成重大的人员伤亡和经济损失。从系统的角度出发,研究了各类突发事件之间的不同关联,分析了突发事件演化的不同模式,提出了突发事件点、链、网、超网间的4层演化模式框架,并针对突发事件的不同演化模式进行了分析;最后通过实例说明了突发事件的4种演化模式。研究结论对于预防灾害的扩大,以及灾害的宏观预警具有一定的意义。     

集体建设用地指标市场化交易预警研究

对集体建设用地指标市场化交易进行预警研究可以更好地为其入市提供科学的监督和管控。本文以集体建设用地指标市场化交易的结果征兆信息建立其警兆值的评测指标体系;运用基于主成分分析的"惩罚性"变权法确定权重,计算综合模拟指数划分警界区间、确定警度;结合GM(1,1)模型进行警度预测,并以江苏省新沂市为例进行了实证测算。研究结果表明:1采用景气信号灯来反映警度,2007-2008年新沂市的集体建设用地指标市场交易的警兆值为-0.041和0.184,处于紫色预警;2009年警兆值为0.238,处于蓝色预警;2010年警兆值上升到0.649,处于绿色预警;2011-2013年警兆值从0.876提高至0.920,处于红色预警状态。2对指标体系进行主成分分析确定基础权重,得到建设用地转耕地面积(0.08)、农民宅基地拆迁安置补偿费(0.084)、地均财政收入(0.083)等的基础权重明显大于其他指标,是制约预警警度的重要因素。3通过"惩罚性"变权研究,得知农民宅基地拆迁安置补偿费的变权权重值有波动下降趋势,说明该指标的重要性递减;第一产业单位面积产值、新型农村合作医疗覆盖率、农村居民基本养老保险参保率的变权权重值有波动上升趋势,说明这些指标的重要性在不断加强。42014-2016年新沂市集体建设用地指标市场交易的预测警兆值是1.566,1.711和2.154,均是红色预警,表明集体建设用地指标交易持续高热。结论与建议:预警结果能为监测集体建设用地指标市场交易情况提供依据,对上述重要因素进行科学合理的管控将有利于降低指标市场交易的警度,以促进集体建设用地入市的持续健康发展。     

Does community resilience mitigate loss and damage from climaterelated disasters? Evidence based on survey data

Policy-makers view community resilience as fundamental to mitigating loss and damage from climate-related disasters. Although energy has been devoted to defining resilience, less effort has been devoted to analysing the effects of resilience on loss and damage, which is critical in places with limited capacity for adaptation. We use survey data to develop a composite index of community resilience in Fiji and then evaluate the extent to which community resilience mitigates loss and damage. We find that community resilience is negatively correlated with damages over which human intervention may be effective, but not with damages over which intervention is less effective, suggesting that community resilience may limit impacts. We further find that this result holds for a cyclone (about which communities had substantial advance warning) but not for river flooding (for which communities had little advanced warning), suggesting that early warning is necessary for community resilience to become responsive.     

长江鱼类繁殖共位群划分的初步研究

依据鱼类的繁殖习性及其早期发育阶段的适应特征,将长江中的8目17科90种鱼类划分为3个行为类型,13个繁殖共位群。其中鲤形目鱼类的86.9%属于无亲体护卫型繁殖类群,多为适应长江干流环境的漂浮性产卵类群以及适应湖泊定居的喜石性产卵类群与喜植性产卵类群。与现有的分类系统相比较,鱊亚科的全部种类仅局限于同一个繁殖共位群中,而鮈亚科的种类则分布于5个不同的繁殖共位群。对不同水系繁殖共位群的组成进行了比较。此外,讨论了不同繁殖共位群的生态适应性,及其在长江流域鱼类资源保护中的应用。
     

基于改进CM的尾矿坝体变形4级预警阈值确定方法*

为改善我国尾矿库在线监测系统由于重建设、轻利用而导致的事故预警能力被制约的现状,以尾矿坝体变形速率监测指标为研究对象,通过引入改进云模型,根据3E规则确定尾矿坝变形监测的正常运营值边界,建立尾矿库坝体变形速率4级预警阈值确定模型,以湖北省某尾矿库为例进行实例分析。结果表明:通过提出的坝体预警阈值确定方法,可得出尾矿库坝体变形速率黄、橙、红各级预警阀值分别为10.842,16.68,25.02 mm/d;进一步与典型小概率法计算结果对比表明,所提出的尾矿坝变形速率4级预警阈值确定方法更加科学合理,可用于尾矿库重要安全监测指标预警值的确定。     

Humanitarian information systems and emergencies in the Greater Horn of Africa: logical components and logical linkages

Natural and man-made emergencies are regular occurrences in the Greater Horn of Africa region. The underlying impoverishment of whole populations is increasing, making it more difficult to distinguish between humanitarian crises triggered by shocks and those resulting from chronic poverty. Shocks and hazards can no longer be seen as one-off events that trigger a one-time response. In countries that are both poor and exposed to frequent episodes of debilitating drought or chronic conflict, information needs tend to be different from the straightforward early warning/commodity accounting models of information systems that have proven reliable in past emergencies. This paper describes the interdependent components of a humanitarian information system appropriate for this kind of complex environment, noting the analytical links between the components and operational links to programme and policy. By examining a series of case studies from the Greater Horn region, the paper demonstrates that systems lacking one or more of these components will fail to provide adequate information--and thus incur humanitarian costs. While information always comes with a cost, the price of poor information--or none--is higher. And in situations of chronic vulnerability, in which development interventions are likely to be interspersed with both safety nets and emergency interventions on a recurrent basis, investment in improved information is a good investment from both a humanitarian and a financial viewpoint.     

设计初期化工过程本质安全化设计策略

该文提出了一种在设计初期进行化工过程本质安全化设计的策略。首先进行危险物质与危险能量两类共计11种危险类型的危险辨识。针对辨识出的危险类型,通过与相应的临界条件比较进行快速的危险评价,对于不可接受的危险必须采取本质安全化措施,可接受的危险可有选择性地进行本质安全化设计。在设计初期可以使用的本质安全化原则主要是消除、最小化、替代和缓和,针对11种危险类型可以应用不同的本质安全化设计模型,以使实际进行本质安全化设计时更加简单与快捷。该文把提出的本质安全化设计策略应用到一个甲苯硝化制硝基甲苯的工艺,形成了多种本质安全化措施,可以用来在设计初期消除或减少危险。     

火灾早期特性试验台的设计和概况

火灾早期是整个火灾过程中最重要的环节。对火灾早期特性的研究有助于了解火灾发生、发展的机理,为火灾早期探测提供科学依据,并为火灾风险评估提供实验数据。本文介绍了火灾早期特笥试验台的设计思想和实现概况,指出了火灾早期特性试验台的功能及其在为科学研究中的应用前景。     

泥河湾盆地于家沟遗址AMS-14C年代学研究及其考古学意义

于家沟遗址作为泥河湾盆地中唯一具有新旧石器工业过渡的典型遗址,为研究东亚旧石器向新石器时代过渡提供了理想的场所。本文通过于家沟遗址剖面沉积物(厚约550 cm)的加速器质谱法(AMS-~(14)C)年代测定,确定了于家沟剖面的年代跨度为16.19?—?2.43 ka BP,其中旧石器向新石器时代的转化时限为9.35 ka BP。该遗址中发现的最早陶器经同层位地层推测,其年代为13.60 ka BP,是目前中国北方发现的最早陶器。陶器的使用可能改善了古人类的生活条件;大量细石器反映出泥河湾盆地中采猎经济高度繁荣。因此,在晚更新世末期气候开始变暖的背景下陶器和细石器的出现一定程度推动了中国北方旧石器时代向新石器时代的转变。