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引入生态可持续性指数,在风险矩阵的框架下与土地生态安全指数相结合,构建了土地生态安全二维预警模型,并应用于临湘市土地生态安全预警.研究表明:土地生态安全指数逐年上升,土地生态系统自身稳定性及其对社会经济发展的支撑能力不断提高;生态可持续性指数逐年下降,土地生态系统对社会经济发展的支撑能力的可持续性逐渐减弱,如不采取相应措施,未来将难以避免跌入不可持续状态;2005~2019年土地生态安全警情呈“中警-轻警-中警-轻警”的波折变化,最终稳定为轻警,预测2020~2025年将延续轻警,跌入重警的可能性较小,但仍存在跌回中警的风险.临湘市应通过发展生态友好型产业、加大环保投入、有序扩张第二产业和建设用地、节制消费和应用新技术提高生产力等措施,综合改善土地生态安全状况.研究认为二维预警模型可有效避免传统模型预警失真的问题,有利于提高土地生态安全预警结果的全面性、前瞻性和合理性. 相似文献
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Clemens Gros Evan Easton-Calabria Meghan Bailey Kadirbyek Dagys Erin Coughlan de Perez Munguntuya Sharavnyambuu Andrew Kruczkiewicz 《Disasters》2022,46(1):95-118
This paper presents evidence relating to a forecast-based cash and non-food item distribution among vulnerable herder households during the 2017–18 dzud (extreme winter) season in Mongolia, and analyses the results of a quasi-experimental study evaluating its impacts. An innovative approach in disaster risk reduction, forecast-based financing (FbF) can have short- and long-term benefits to vulnerable households but remains understudied. The paper contributes information on a multimodal FbF programme offering one-off cash grants and in-kind veterinary kits. The data found significant effects of reduced mortality and increased offspring survival in some types of livestock, and that the timing of FbF assistance is crucial, as reported early assistance correlated to positive outcomes in terms of reduced animal mortality. These findings can be used to design more effective FbF interventions, to understand better the appropriateness of FbF designs, and to use early warnings and early actions to help people prepare and withstand disasters such as dzuds. 相似文献
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外来赤潮生物入侵现状及对赤潮灾害的影响研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
外来赤潮生物入侵加剧了我国近海海域的赤潮灾害。根据2004—2013年的数据统计,分别从赤潮生物优势种、频率、海域分布和赤潮面积4个方面分析了外来赤潮生物对我国近海赤潮灾害的影响,并着重从外来赤潮生物入侵早期预警系统建设、压舱水排放管理和赤潮灾害防治技术3个方面提出应对措施。 相似文献
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We have evaluated the role of a rapid and radical method of amniodrainage in the treatment of severe twin–twin transfusion. The outcome of 15 patients with severe twin–twin transfusion for which a amniodrainage was performed by means of a vacuum bottle system was compared with the outcome of 15 patients with a similar condition, matched for gestational age at the time of the initial procedure and drained using a standard procedure. In the study group the amniodrainage ended when no amniotic fluid could be aspirated, whereas the women in the standard group were drained with a syringe system and the fluid was removed until the deepest amniotic fluid pool was <8 cm. At the initial procedure, the mean volume of amniotic fluid drained was significantly (p<0.05) higher (3252 vs 2153 ml) and the length of the procedure significantly (p<0.001) shorter (21 vs 41 min) in the study group than in the standard group. The mean post-procedure amniotic fluid index was significantly (p<0.001) smaller (2.9 vs 7.7 cm) after radical amniodrainage than after the standard amniodrainage. The mean number of procedures was significantly (p<0.001) lower (1.5 vs 5.6) in the study group compared to the standard group. In the study group the mean placental thickness increased significantly (p<0.001) from 9 mm before the procedure to 49 mm after, and the overall perinatal survival rate was 80% and the proportion of pregnancies with at least one survivor was 93%. The present data indicate that early, rapid and radical amniodrainage is an effective and low-cost therapy for severe twin–twin transfusion syndrome. Compared to the standard amniodrainage technique it also appears to reduce the need for multiple procedures. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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