地震学综合定量预报方法在华东地区地震预测中的应用研究

本文应用地震学综合定量预报方法,结合区域地震活动特点,在华东地区进行了分区实际预报效能检验.结果表明该方法在华东地区有5个区域通过R值检验,效果较好,有4个区域未能通过R值检验;并对通过检验的区域地震活动趋势进行了分析.     

Step-up multiple regression model to compute Chlorophyll a in the coastal waters off Cochin, southwest coast of India

The interaction effects of abiotic processes in the production of phytoplankton in a coastal marine region off Cochin are evaluated using multiple regression models. The study shows that chlorophyll production is not limited by nutrients, but their physiological regulations (responses to nutrients, pH, temperature and salinity) are mainly responsible for the increased biological production. The model explaining 77% of variability for chlorophyll a production is indicative of preconditioning of the coastal waters. The phytoplankton production is found to be sensitive to the environment, which varies seasonally. Further, the study suggests that supply of organic matter and grazing of zooplankton (not included) would improve the model efficiency. Despite this, the good agreement in the computed and measured chlorophyll a values shows that step-up multiple regression model is a useful tool to understand the influence of environmental variables on the production of phytoplankton in these coastal waters.     

ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC LOADS ON LANDSCAPES AS A TOOL TO DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINABLE REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT: CASE STUDY FROM AZERBAIJAN

In order to determine the potential for sustainable regional development of the Caspian coastal zone, a study was made for the Khachmaz–Absheron zone of Azerbaijan. An evaluation was performed to assess the anthropogenic load on landscapes. Using the 8-point scale offered by Isachenko [2001, Ecological Geography of Russia, Saint Petersburg University Press, Saint Petersburg] for the indicators of agricultural, industrial, urban and integral anthropogenic loads, we did a preliminary ranking of the provinces in the Khachmaz–Absheron zone of Azerbaijan for the each indicator taken separately. Vital statistics were used as a supplementary indicator of environmental conditions in the region. By comparing the data for provinces with each other and the data on Azerbaijan average, we have classified the provinces into 4 groups according to specific combinations of the indicators. Each group of provinces has distinctive environmental conditions and features for sustainable development. The classification makes it possible to develop certain recommendations for the regional sustainable development. Measures to be implemented within the Azerbaijan State Program on Social and Economic Development of Regions are also discussed. In the Khachmaz province, production of ecologically pure products is highly recommended. Special attention should be given to the development of tourism and recreational institutions in the Khachmaz, Khizi and Devechi provinces. Recommendations for these provinces include further development of industry on the basis of modern safe technologies. The irrigation and drainage networks should be reconstructed. The reconstruction will make it possible to reduce water loss and to increase the productivity of agriculture. In the Absheron province, Baku and Sumgait cities environmental systems are overloaded, and so the works at highly polluting enterprises must be stopped, the enterprises have to be re-equipped (old filters must be changed first of all) or relocated from the area (a decrease of environmental risk should be in the focus of attention). For improving of air quality, green areas should increase. There is a need to reduce urban traffic density and to reconstruct highways. Use of old vehicles must be forbidden or restricted, and transition to environmentally friendly fuel should be supported in every way possible. It is necessary to bring the waste management system and sanitary landfills up to international standards, and to improve the water supply and sewerage systems.     

Speciation of organotin compounds in sediments of semi-closed areas along the Mediterranean coast of Alexandria

Organotin compounds were measured in sediments of four different semi-closed areas of the Mediterranean coast of Alexandria: the Eastern Harbour, Western Harbour, El-Max Bay, and Abu-Qir Bay. Due to the commercial trade activity inside the Western Harbour, in addition to the effect of wastes discharged from El Noubaria canal, it shows the highest concentrations of total tin (6.34 μg g^-1 dry weight), dibutyl tin (1.63 μg g^-1 wet weight), tributyl tin (0.33 μg g^-1 wet weight) and diphenyl tin (1.06 μg g^-1 wet weight) compared with other locations. The concentrations of TBT species showed the highest contents compared with DBT and DPhT compounds in all sampling areas. This trend might be due to the worldwide use of TBT not only as biocides in antifouling paints but also as preserving agents for wood, fungicides in agricultural activities, and heat and UV stabilizers of PVC, which results in a direct release of TBT into the water body, accumulation in aquatic fauna. There is also precipitation into sediments and a decrease in degradation rate into its derivatives. Variations, types, concentrations, and distribution of different organotin compounds are discussed in the areas under investigation. The study reveals a new record of organotin compounds along the Alexandria coast and makes comparisons with other surrounding areas of interest.     

Ecology, management and monitoring of grey dunes in Flanders

Grey dunes are a priority habitat type of the European Union Habitats Directive and demand special attention for conservation and management. Knowledge of the ecology of coastal grey dunes can contribute to this policy. Dune grassland succession is initiated by fixation and driven by the complex of soil formation (humus accumulation) and vegetation development. Leaching and mobilization of CaCO₃. which are important in nutrient dynamics, complicate the picture. At present, grass- and scrub encroachment greatly overrules these fine scaled soil processes and causes substantial loss of regional biodiversity. Belgium has an international responsibility in grey dune conservation because of the limited range of its characteristic vegetation, flora and fauna. As biomass removal seems essential in grassland preservation, grazing is an important management tool. Evaluation of management measures focuses on biodiversity measurements on the levels of landscape, community and species.     

小城镇公众生态意识现状及策略——河北省东部小城镇生态意识调查

在对河北省东部进行的生态意识调查基础上，运用计量经济学方法分析了这些小城镇生态意识水平发展的一些规律，并提出了提高小城镇公众生态意识水平的一些对策。研究发现这些小城镇政府工作人员的整体生态意识处于浅层思考阶段，对指导环境保护仅具有启蒙性的意义，仍需提高到深层意识水平，才能更好地行使环境教育与环境决策的职责。研究还发现生态意识策略首先要加强对小城镇地区公众的生态安全教育，其次是注重转变经济增长方式，发展生态经济；关注中小学生的生态意识培养；同时尽力加强环境管理。     

中国东部季风区末次冰期以来古气候模拟

通过对我国东部季风区现代青土样品孢粉组合与气候因子间的回归分析,分别建立了孢粉组合与一月,七月气温和年降水量的转换函数,进而建立了本区末次冰期以来的孢粉－气候数据库,模拟末次冰期盛冰期,消冰期,全新世前北方期－北方期,大西洋期,亚北方期等五个古气候期的冬季和夏季温度场,降水场。     

青海湖东北岸天然草地CO2 通量变化特征

采用涡度相关法对青海湖东北岸地区草甸化草原生态系统的CO₂ 通量进行了观测,结果表明： 在生长季节(5~9 月),就日变化,08:00~19:00 为CO₂ 净吸收,20:00~07:00 为CO₂ 净排放,CO₂ 通量 净吸收峰值一般出现在12:00 时,7 月份12:00 时CO₂ 净吸收峰值为1.41 g·(m2·h)^-1;就月变化,7 月 是生长季CO₂ 净吸收最高月份,月CO₂ 净吸收量达到162.70 g·m^-2,整个生长季CO₂ 净吸收的总量达 468.07 g·m^-2。非生长季节(1~4 月及10~12 月),CO₂ 通量日变化振幅极小,最大CO₂ 净排放通量出现 在3 月,为0.29 g·(m2·h)^-1,除12 月和1 月各时段CO₂ 通量接近于零,其余月份各时段CO₂ 净排放在 0.02~0.29 g·(m2·h)^-1;3 月是全年CO₂ 净排放的最高月份,全月CO₂ 净排放量为72.33 g·m^-2,整个非生 长季CO₂ 净排放为319.78 g·m^-2。结果表明,无放牧条件下青海湖东北岸地区草甸化草原,全年CO₂ 净吸收量达148.30 g·m^-2,是显著的CO₂ 汇。     

皖东地区水资源可持续利用研究

本文分析了皖东地区水资源的基本特点、开发利用现状及其存在的主要问题,并提出了水资源可持续利用的基本对策     

Distribution and speciation of heavy metals in Apulian coastal sediments

In the framework of the Interreg II Project Italy–Greece, distribution and speciation of trace metals in surface coastal sediments of Apulian regions were studied. A sequential extraction technique was used to determine the chemical association of heavy metals (Zn, Pb, Ni, Fe, Cr, Mn, Cu and Cd) with major sedimentary phases (acid soluble phases, easily reducible fraction and oxidizable matter). The relationship between the metals' content and the grain-size composition of the sediments was also considered: generally the elements resulted associated with the fine fraction, even if in some cases (Cu in the oxidizable phase) the opposite behaviour was observed. The studied area is not particularly polluted, except for some defined zones, as for example Brindisi's harbour. Speciation analysis revealed that the major part of the heavy metals are not easily mobilizable and bioavailable. Even in this case, there are some exceptions to the general behaviour: Cu and Pb in several samples are largely present in the oxidizable phase, which even if not immediately available can become a source of associated elements when redox conditions change.