东北农牧交错带典型区土地利用变化及其生态效应

东北农牧交错带是典型的生态环境脆弱区，具有敏感性强、退化趋势明显等生态脆弱性特征。本文利用1986、2002年两期TM/ETM影像，揭示了吉林西部16年来土地利用／覆被的时空变化规律，并依据Costanza R．等人对全球生态系统服务价值的评估方法。分析了土地利用变化对区域生态系统服务价值的影响。结果表明：16年来，吉林西部土地利用／覆被发生了剧烈变化。耕地、盐碱地面积大幅度增加，草地、水域和湿地的面积大幅度减少，区域生态系统服务功能出现明显的衰退。生态系统服务价值显著地减少。吉林西部生态系统服务价值由1986年的767．1亿元／a下降到2002年的624．1亿元／a，减少幅度达18．6％，年均递减速率达1．6％。16年来该区域生态环境恶化和以经济利益为目的的土地利用结构调整，给区域生态系统服务功能和可持续发展能力带来巨大负面影响。     

三峡库区消落带水淹初期主要优势草本植物生态位变化特征

根据三峡库区初期水位涨落情况,以空间代替时间法,连续两年对典型消落带区域地上植被进行调查,通过计算生态位宽度和生态位重叠来分析不同水淹时间下优势草本植物生态位的变化特征。结果表明,一年水淹区段在未水淹时,植物生态位宽度普遍较窄,此时生态位明显特化,而第二年水淹极大的增加了适应干湿变化的物种的优势度。水淹前生态位重叠值大于0.5的只有12对,小于0.2种对为189对,其中生态位重叠值为零的为103对;水淹后生态位重叠值大于0.5的有24对,小于0.2种对为53对,其中生态位重叠值为零的为6对,说明生境由干燥到湿润的变化,对湿润环境相对适应的物种存活,优势植物生态位重叠明显增加。经两年水淹区段中,第一年以毛马唐的生态位宽度最高,其余17种物种生态位宽度小于0.2的物种占优势物种的61%,第二年以雾水葛和鳢肠的生态位宽度较大,其余15种物种生态位宽度小于0.2的物种占优势物种的50%,共同出现的物种仅有8种。生态位重叠值大于0.5的种对由5对上升到17对,生态位重叠值为零的种对由10对减低到2对,说明连续水淹产生更加均一的生境类型,对资源要求相似的物种是增加的。     

江苏省沿江开发区空间分工、制造业集聚与转移

基于新经济地理学相关理论,针对江苏省沿江开发战略实施以后,制造业空间可能存在的变动,在整理和分析调查问卷资料的基础上,选择专业化指数和基尼系数2种方法来定量分析江苏省21个沿江省级以上开发区空间分工、制造业集聚和转移态势。结果表明：（1）2002~2006年江南沿江开发区通过向江北沿江开发区转移部分传统产业,逐渐形成了江南沿江技术/资本密集型制造业“中心”和江北沿江劳动密集型制造业“外围”的空间分工格局;（2）江南沿江开发区内部、江北沿江开发区内部尚未形成良好的分工关系;（3）受开发区发展阶段、区域产业政策、本地化资源供给和市场需求等因素影响,并未发现理论预期的普遍存在的产业集聚现象,仅纺织服装、石化、电力、塑料橡胶等产业呈现集中趋势.     

Determinants for cassava production expansion in the semi-arid zone of West Africa

The study focuses on evaluating factors that farmers consider relevant in adopting cassava production in five semi-arid zone of West African countries. The study is based on primary data randomly collected as part of collaborative study of cassava in semiarid zones of Africa (COSCASSA) village level survey from five West African countries namely: Nigeria, Ghana, Chad, Niger and Burkina Faso. This study models effects of farm, farmer and technology specific factors on the decision of semi arid farmers to adopt cassava into their farming system. By way of threshold decision models—Probit and Logit models, the estimation of each country and the pooled data adoption models reveal different adoption models for the countries considered. For each country, different variables appeared as major adoption shifters. Comparatively, the adoption models for Nigeria and whole region appear to have the highest significance variables, being seven in number. This is followed by Chad (6), Ghana (4), and Burkina Faso and Niger with three each. For the variables considered, distance to nearby urban market appears a major adoption shifter in all the country, except for Niger. This is closely followed by contact with extension, variety, pest/disease resistance and livestock feeds, which appear significant in four of the countries. Membership of cooperative societies appears as the least adoption predictor, which is only significant in Chad republic. The study therefore recognizes the importance of varietial characteristics and farmers’ characteristics in acceptance of cassava as a major root tuber crop in the semi arid region of West Africa. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Acid generation upon thermal concentration of natural water: The critical water content and the effects of ionic composition

Thermal evaporation of a variety of simulated pore waters from the region of Yucca Mountain, Nevada, produced acidic liquids and gases during the final stages of evaporation. Several simulated pore waters were prepared and then thermally distilled in order to collect and analyze fractions of the evolved vapor. In some cases, distillates collected towards the end of the distillation were highly acidic; in other cases the pH of the distillate remained comparatively unchanged during the course of the distillation. The results suggest that the pH values of the later fractions are determined by the initial composition of the water. Acid production stems from the hydrolysis of magnesium ions, especially at near dryness. Near the end of the distillation, magnesium nitrate and magnesium chloride begin to lose water of hydration, greatly accelerating their thermal decomposition to form acid. Acid formation is promoted further when precipitated calcium carbonate is removed. Specifically, calcium chloride-rich pore waters containing moderate (10–20 ppm) levels of magnesium and nitrate and low levels of bicarbonate produced mixtures of nitric and hydrochloric acid, resulting in a precipitous drop in pH to values of 1 or lower after about 95% of the original volume was distilled. Waters with either low or moderate magnesium content coupled with high levels of bicarbonate produced slightly basic fractions (pH 7–9). If calcium was present in excess of bicarbonate, waters containing moderate levels of magnesium produced acid even in the presence of bicarbonate, due to the precipitation of calcium carbonate. Other salts such as halite and anhydrite promote the segregation of acidic vapors from residual basic solids. The concomitant release of wet acid gas has implications for the integrity of the alloys under consideration for containers at the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository. Condensed acid gases at very low pH, especially mixtures of nitric and hydrochloric acid, are capable of corroding even alloys, such as nickel-based Alloy 22, which are considered to be corrosion-resistant under milder conditions.     

湖岸缓冲带反硝化作用的研究进展

反硝化作用是湖岸缓冲带去除硝酸盐的重要途径。湖岸缓冲带是联系陆地与湖泊生态系的纽带,不仅为许多动植物提供适宜生境,而且通过反硝化作用能去除地下水中的硝酸盐,提高湖泊水质。概述不同检测反硝化速率的方法,并对比各种方法的优点与缺点。阐述反硝化作用的影响因素：厌氧环境、有机碳、湖岸坡度、缓冲带坡度、pH与温度、硝酸盐浓度。介绍反硝化速率模型的研究开发状况。最后,提出了目前国内外反硝化研究中存在的不足及发展方向。     

渗滤液污染包气带中铁的形态变化

从渗滤液场龄和包气带岩性两方面出发,研究了新、老渗滤液对亚粘土和细砂包气带环境中Fe的含量及存在形态的影响。结果表明：新、老渗滤液分别能使细砂包气带介质中除残渣态以外Fe的含量增加16.68%或降低13.82%。亚粘土比细砂作为包气带介质更能缓冲渗滤液对介质中Fe的影响程度,其受影响范围在包气带0～20 cm深度处。当亚粘土为介质的包气带被新渗滤液污染后,其表层介质中碳酸盐结合态Fe的含量会增加15倍之多,为缓冲渗滤液Fe的污染做出了巨大贡献,但这部分Fe的存在也是潜在的二次污染源,在环境pH急剧变化的情况下,它可能会引起地下水高铁污染。     

昌吉市高新技术产业开发区循环经济模式探索及研究

传统开发区内,资源的流动是一些相互不发生关系的线性物质流的叠加,出入系统的物质流远远大于内部交互的物质流,因而造成经济活动的＂高开采、低利用、高排放＂特征,即＂大量生产、大量消费和大量废弃＂[1]。而发展循环经济,是我国贯彻落实科学发展观、建设资源节约型和环境友好型社会的重大战略选择[。2]目前新型开发区产业发展,则要求按照循环经济的理念,积极探索发展循环经济之路。本文以昌吉市高新技术产业开发区为例,研究其循环经济模式,为其他开发区设计和发展提供有益的经验和建议。     

基于模糊影响图方法的库存弹药事故概率分析

针对库存弹药安全的特殊性,在分析国内外库存弹药典型事故案例的基础上,指出FTA、ETA等传统概率计算方法存在的局限。提出一种基于模糊影响图(FID)的库存弹药事故概率分析方法,并对FID模型的构建过程和算法进行概述;以弹药被盗事故作为实例分析,并得到事故概率分布图和累积概率曲线。结果表明,FID的算法理论及建模过程能较好地克服FTA、ETA等传统方法的局限性,实例分析指出弹药被盗事故在10-4数量级的隶属度最高,且事故发生概率更趋向于10-3～10-1数量级,从而得到一旦仓库安全防范措施不到位,就很有可能发生弹药被盗事故的结论。     

A study of climate change and anthropogenic impacts in West Africa

BACKGROUND, AIM AND SCOPE: During the last decades ecological conditions in West Africa have dramatically changed. Very evident is the climate change, which has resulted in a southward shift of the climate zones, e.g. a spread of the desert (Sahara) into the Sahelian zone. After the drought period of the early 1970s and 1980s, livestock density increased resulting in an intensification of grazing pressure. This anthropogenous phenomenon leads to similar landscape changes as those caused by the climate. Only very few investigations exist on vegetation dynamics, climate changes and land use changes for the Sudanian zone. The paper presents data on changes of precipitation, of land use, of the geographical range of species, and of the composition of the flora, which have to be regarded as proofs of the sahelisation of large areas of the Sudanian zone. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Area of investigation: Burkina Faso. Precipitation data analysis: precipitation data from 67 stations; time series analysis and geo-statistical spatial interpolation. Analysis of land use change: Landsat satellite MSS and ETM+ data, acquired for two different dates between 1972 and 2001 analyzed by the software ERDAS/IMAGINE version 8.6 and ArcView 3.2 with the Spatial Analyst extension. Intensive ground truthing (160 training areas). Inventory of the flora: based on the data of the Herbarium Senckenbergianum (FR) in Frankfurt, Germany, and of the herbarium of the university of Ouagadougou (OUA), Burkina Faso, as well as on various investigations on the vegetation of Burkina Faso carried out in the years 1990 to 2005 by the team of the senior author. Life form analysis of the flora: based on the inventory of permanent plots. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Precipitation: Remarkable latitudinal shift of isohyets towards the South translates to a general reduction of average rainfall in great parts of the country. The last decade (1990-1999) shows some improvement, however, the more humid conditions of the 1950's and 1960's are not yet established again. Landcover change: In the study region the extent of arable fields and young fallows increased during the last 30 years from 580 km(2) in 1972 to 2870 km(2) in 2001. This means an average land cover conversion rate of 0.9% per year for the 6 departments considered. Change of the distribution of Sahelian and Sudanian species: Several species, mentioned in older literature as strictly Sahelian, today also occur in the Sudanian zone. Parallel to the spread of former strictly Sahelian species into the Sudanian zone, some former Sahelo-Sudanian species have withdrawn from the Sahel. Changes of the life form spectra of the flora: Considering their life form spectra, the flora of heavily grazed and of protected areas in the Sudanian zone show great differences. On areas intensively grazed the percentage of therophytes is evidently higher than on protected areas. Just the opposite is true for the phanerophytes. Their percentage is higher on the protected area than on the grazed zones. At the first glance, it is obvious to link the changes in flora and vegetation with the climate changes that have occurred during the last five decades (decrease of annual precipitation). However, not only climatic conditions have changed, but also population has increased, the percentage of land intensively used for agriculture and pasturing has increased and the time for soil regeneration today is much shorter than it was some decades ago. Thus, the landscape of the Sudanian zone has become a more Sahelian character. A comparison of the flora of an intensively used area of the Sudanian zone with that of a protected area shows a remarkable change in the life form spectra. The spectrum of the intensively used area is almost identical with that of the typical Sahelian flora. This comparison shows that the anthropogenic influence plays a greater role in the sahelisation of the Sudanian zone than the climate change. CONCLUSION: Climate change and anthropogenic influence both, lead to a sahelisation of landscape and flora. Thus in many parts of the Sudanian zone of West Africa sahelisation phenomena will remain and even increase independently from the reestablishment of the more humid climate conditions of the 1950ies. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: In order to maintain some parts of the characteristic Sudanian landscape with its characteristic flora and vegetation, the number and size of protected areas should be augmented. For all protected areas it has to be ensured, that protection is reality, i.e. respected an understood by local people, not only fiction. As long as the enlargement of intensively used areas continues the sahelisation of flora, vegetation and landscape will continue too.