Who is susceptible and why? An agent-based approach to assessing vulnerability to drought

In this paper, we specify susceptibility to drought from a psychology-based bottom-up perspective. On the basis of the protection motivation theory (Rippetoe and Rogers in J Pers Soc Psychol 52(3):596–604, 1987), we developed the protection-capacity model (Krömker and Mosler in Global environmental change in Alpine regions: impact, recognition, adaptation, and mitigation. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, pp 93–112, 2002) to analyse the susceptibility with respect to the protection capacity of agents. The protection capacity is determined by the agents’ subjective assessment of the situation, which consists of the appraisal of threat, on the one hand, and the coping appraisal, on the other hand. Additionally, the protection-capacity model specifies several factors which influence the two central appraisal processes. Empirical data were collected in interviews with experts and with a total of 65 exemplarily selected households which are typical for the respective case study regions (Andhra Pradesh, India; Algarve and Alentejo, Portugal; Volgograd and Saratov, Russia). The data were analysed with the help of fuzzy set methodology. Results show that the households of the Indian region are the most susceptible when compared to those of the Russian region with ‘low’ and to households of the Portuguese region with a ‘very low’ degree of susceptibility. Moreover, we identified subgroups within the regions which are characterized by different degrees of susceptibility and a different profile of factors influencing susceptibility. Altogether, the agent-based perspective allows identifying relevant factors that need to be addressed to minimize susceptibility of the population and special subgroups. However, the results are not representative for the case study regions because of the small database. Additionally, more effort is needed to validate the findings.     

Application of fuzzy models to assess susceptibility to droughts from a socio-economic perspective

By combining the concepts of environmental stress, state susceptibility and environmental crisis, “Security Diagram” (SD) provides a quantitative approach to assessing environmental change and human security. The SD is a tool that clearly presents in a diagram the security situation of a population or region affected by a particular environmental crisis. Its underlying concept emphasises that the higher the level of environmental stress and socio-economic susceptibility, the higher the probability of the occurrence of crisis. Focusing on drought, this study analyses the susceptibility of case study regions in India, Portugal, and Russia from a socio-economic perspective. A conceptual framework of socio-economic susceptibility is developed based on the economic development theories of modernisation and dependency. Fuzzy set theory is used to generate susceptibility indices from a range of national and sub-national indicators, including financial resources, agricultural dependency and infrastructure development (for economic susceptibility), and health condition, educational attainment and gender inequality (for social susceptibility). Results indicate that socio-economic susceptibility over the period 1980–1995 was highest in India, followed by Russia and (since 1989) lowest in Portugal. Globalisation is likely to contribute to changes in the level of socio-economic susceptibility over time. Moreover, specific social and economic structures unique in each country (e.g., the role of women in society in India, the socialist legacy in Russia) may explain differences in susceptibility between the case study regions.

山东省农村生态环境问题及治理对策

农村生态环境问题事关农民的切身利益,也关系到建设社会主义新农村目标的最终实现。作为我国北方地区典型的经济快速发展的省份,山东省近些年农村经济也获得长足发展,但由于不合理生产而引发的生态环境问题也日渐突出,对推动农村现代化和实现农村经济的可持续发展构成了潜在的威胁。以2005年的统计数据为基础,分析了山东省农村地区生态环境现状及其所面临的主要生态环境问题,剖析了农村环境问题产生的根源,并针对性地提出了综合治理对策。     

西藏土地资源承载力的现实与未来——基于膳食营养当量分析

土地承载力是人地关系的基础表征,开展土地承载力评价可以为实施农业空间治理、制定农业发展政策等提供参考。以西藏自治区为例,基于人体每日所需热量、蛋白质和脂肪评价土地的现实承载力及其变化。评价结果表明：（1）西藏自治区土地承载指数从2004-2016年一直维持在80.66%~89.84%之间,处于平衡有余状态。（2）未来西藏自治区土地承载指数将会持续保持在87.5%之上,呈现先升后降的变化态势,在2032年达到峰值,届时土地承载指数将会超过92.56%;此后将会持续下降,在2050年将低于90%。以土地承载力评价为基础,根据未来食物消费需求变化和西藏自治区的自然条件,提出不增加农牧业开发强度,保持农牧业生产空间规模稳定,并逐步优化调整农牧业发展结构,适度降低粮食种植面积,在适宜地区扩大蔬菜、瓜果种植,以及发展草牧业经济等建议。     

不同生态系统管理情景下资源环境承载力动态仿真研究

环境问题与社会经济发展关系机理错综复杂,研究环境承载力状态对实现区域可持续发展具有重要意义.基于资源环境复合系统原理,构建经济-资源-环境系统动力学模型,通过生态系统评估的4种情景时间序列动态仿真,探索经济社会发展的优化方案.结果 表明:全球协同和技术家园更适合福州市自身发展需求,为保持福州市经济发展的可持续性,应...     

广东省生活垃圾处理方式变化趋势及其原因

针对广东省生活垃圾处理存在的问题,通过收集和整理广东省生活垃圾产生和处理的相关数据及政府统计报告,分析了生活垃圾处理量和处理方式的变化趋势及其原因,并提出了相应建议,以供广东省有关管理部门参考.结果 表明,广东省生活垃圾产生量从2004年的1.6× 107t增长至2020年的3.1×107t,生活垃圾无害化处理率由42...     

The institutions-adaptive capacity nexus: Insights from coastal resources co-management in Cambodia and Vietnam

Responding to the unprecedented social-environmental change facing humankind will require responsive and flexible governance institutions (i.e., systems of rules and social norms) that facilitate adaptive capacity of individuals, groups and organisations. This may explain the sustained interest in the institutional dimensions of adaptive capacity. However, a better understanding of how institutions may enable adaptive capacity is still evolving. The literature is yet to clearly articulate how institutions relate to attributes of adaptive capacity. This study contributes to address this knowledge gap; it employs an evaluative approach that underscores the relationship between types of institutions and attributes of adaptive capacity (i.e., variety, learning capacity, autonomy, leadership, resources and fair governance). Such approach is used to examine how institutions enable adaptive capacity in the context of coastal resources co-managemen in the Peam Krasaop Wildlife Sanctuary (Cambodia) and Tam Giang Lagoon (Vietnam). In this study, complexity emerges as a defining feature of adaptive capacity. It results from the relationship between institutions and adaptive capacity and the contextual factors in which such relationship takes place. Exercises aiming to assess adaptive capacity should consider the institutions-adaptive capacity nexus together with the embedding social, cultural and political context.     

Managing Congestion: Economics of Price and Lottery Rationing

It is not uncommon for the carrying capacity for congestible facilities to be estimated before the allocation method is known. This paper shows how efficient capacity differs between two competing resource allocation mechanisms, one which is efficient (price) and one which is fair (lottery). The welfare theoretic implications of adopting lottery allocation rather than price allocation are illustrated from the perspectives of economic efficiency and the benefits obtained by resource users and suppliers. It is found that risk-neutral resource users will always prefer lottery allocation to price allocation. While price allocation is efficient, it is never in risk-neutral resource users» interests to have price allocation imposed. Conclusions are tested using a linear constant crowding demand function, in which case it is found that the efficient capacity for lottery rationing exceeds the efficient capacity where price is to be used to allocate a congestible resource. Objectives may be better met by joint use of allocation mechanisms, the implications of which are investigated using the linear demand model.     

生态环境损害赔偿:概念界定、理论基础与制度框架

生态环境损害不同于环境污染或生态破坏导致的人身、财产损害,是环境污染或生态破坏行为引发的区域环境质量下降或生态功能退化等重大不利改变,其实质是个体经济利益对公共环境利益的侵蚀所造成的"外部不经济性"。生态环境损害赔偿是使"外部不经济性内部化"的过程,需采用公法手段综合利用政府、市场和社会三种方式使责任者承担修复或赔偿相应修复费用的责任。生态环境损害赔偿的核心在于赋予特定主体代表公共环境利益进行索赔的权利,并以此为逻辑起点构建生态环境损害赔偿的制度框架。生态环境损害赔偿制度框架由本体与配套制度构成,本体制度包括生态环境损害赔偿的内容与范围、索赔主体、生态环境损害赔偿的协商与诉讼程序,配套制度包括生态环境损害评估、社会化责任分担机制,以及生态环境损害赔偿的公众参与制度。     

Ground flora trampling studies: Five years after closure

Trampling as an ecological factor is a major concern of the management of park, forest, nature preserves, and wilderness areas as recreational resources. Of particular importance to the management concept of carrying capacity is the relative resistance of native plant communities, to trampling and the resilience or the capacity of impacted communities to recover. This information can be used by management to establish seasonal use limits to prevent irreversible degradation of these resources. The purpose of this study was to follow the recolonizaton of experimental trail surfaces barren of vegetative cover and hiked at three levels of use intensity. Results of this study indicate that soil compaction as measured by soil penetration resistance increased progressively with use level while the total number of species, species diversity, and dominant index scores declined. A major finding was that the greatest degree of change occurred at the first level of hiking, indicating that major floristic measures were most affected by the least amount of hiking. Recolonization of impacted areas that received 100 trampling passes as measured by plant cover, dominant indices, floristic dissimilarity, and species diversity was similar to areas receiving four and eight times more trampling, despite major differences in soil penetration resistance. These data suggest limited use delivered at one time can be as damaging as increasing levels of use delivered at over time.