页岩气开发对生态环境影响评价模型

针对页岩气特殊的开发方式及环评难度比常规气大的特点,运用"压力-状态-响应"框架模型,建立了页岩气开发对生态环境影响的评价指标体系。引入曲线投影的方式,并将投影寻踪方法和动态聚类方法相结合,提出了曲线投影寻踪动态聚类的定量评价方法;基于样本各指标的曲线投影和动态聚类方法寻找最佳投影方向,并建立相应的生态环境影响评价优化模型。结合全局最优经验指导和信息素交流,采用改进的蚁群算法对优化模型进行求解。该算法维持蚁群的多样性,且收敛性较好,同时也避免出现局部最优。对四川省威远页岩气区块进行了实例分析,结果表明:2010年、2011年和2014年的环评属于差类(4级),2012年和2013年的环评属于中类(3级),其中植被覆盖率、空气质量优良率、地表水质达标率、废水排放量、公众对环境的满意度、二氧化硫排放量和废水排放量达标率等指标对生态环境评价的影响较大。在页岩气开发初期,由于开发技术落后,再加上环保投资不高,环保意识不强,造成生态环境问题较为严重。随着学习借鉴美国的经验,及页岩气的开发技术进一步提高,加上国家对生态环境保护的重视,威远页岩气区块生态环境恶化得到有效的遏制。但开发时间越长,开采难度越大,将会产生更多更大的生态环境问题。分析结果与威远页岩气开发区域的实际情况相符,为页岩气气田生态环境影响评价奠定了科学基础。投影寻踪动态聚类方法具有无需设定参数、操作简单、客观等优点,是页岩气开发对生态环境影响评价的一种新方法。     

岷江上游生态脆弱性评价

岷江上游流域是我国典型的生态脆弱区之一,由于地质变化频繁、高差显著、气候干旱,加上人为活动影响,生态脆弱性的表现十分明显。通过对其生态环境脆弱性因素及成因机制的分析,构建了由土地生产力、地表起伏度、干燥度指数、土壤侵蚀强度、草场退化荒漠化率、物种消失率等14个指标组成的岷江上游生态脆弱性的评价指标体系;根据本地区生态环境现状、全国和四川省情况及奋斗目标,建立了Ⅰ到Ⅲ级的评价标准体系;利用模糊数学聚类方法对评价指标进行分析计算,得出了岷江上游生态环境为第Ⅲ级,即生态环境非常脆弱的结论。评价结果符合岷江上游地区的生态环境状况。     

构建人类命运共同体、应对气候变化与生态文明建设

全球气候变化给人类社会文明带来严峻挑战,需要人类社会采取共同措施和行动积极应对。应对全球气候变化是当今世界最能体现人类共同命运的领域,深度参与并积极推动全球气候治理体系改革和建设是中国推动构建人类命运共同体的重要实践,也是生态文明理论和实践的重要方面。应对气候变化是我国生态文明建设的重要内容和内在要求;以共同价值理念构建人类命运共同体,凝聚各国力量携手合作应对全球气候变化,是全球生态文明建设和构建人类命运共同体的具体实践,也为应对全球气候变化提供了良好载体和国际平台。文章通过分析可知,应对气候变化、生态文明建设与构建人类命运共同体三者之间,呈现出相互促进、和谐共生的"三位一体"特征;人与自然共生的生命共同体是前提条件,人类的任何实践活动都要以自然生态系统为基础和前提;人类命运共同体在整合各国力量方面,为生态文明建设提供了社会基础;生态文明包容各国文明,凝聚价值共识,成为生命共同体和人类命运共同体的价值导向。中国倡导人类命运共同体理念,是全球生态文明和人类命运共同体的积极倡导者、推动者和践行者,既为应对全球气候变化提供了价值基础,也提供了强有力的实践支撑;应对气候变化是全球生态文明建设和人类命运共同体构建的生动实践。因此,加强生态文明建设和构建人类命运共同体,为全球应对气候变化提供了理论基础和国际平台,也将为全球可持续发展贡献中国智慧和中国案例。     

我国耕地生态安全评价及障碍因子诊断

耕地生态安全评价及障碍因子诊断是改善耕地生态系统状况、促进耕地可持续利用的重要基础。在界定耕地生态安全内涵的基础上,构建了基于PSR模型的评价指标体系,采用熵值法和障碍度模型,对我国耕地生态安全进行了评价。研究表明：（1）1996~2010年我国耕地生态安全水平总体不断提高,综合指数从0484 4增加到0626 9,安全等级经历了“临界安全-较安全”的演变历程;（2）压力指数总体上呈现下降趋势,状态指数和响应指数总体上呈现上升趋势;（3）长远来看,系统压力是影响耕地生态安全的首要因素,1996~2010年系统压力和系统状态的障碍度分别以年均533%和052%的速度增加,而系统响应的障碍度以年均802%的速度下降;（4）影响耕地生态安全的主要障碍因子包括单位耕地面积农药负荷、单位耕地面积化肥负荷、人均耕地面积、土地垦殖率、水土流失程度等。为了促进耕地生态安全水平不断提高,需要进一步转变经济发展方式,加强土地利用监督管理,降低经济增长对土地资源的过度消耗;大力发展绿色农业,合理施用农药、化肥;积极开展农村土地整治,加强高标准基本农田建设;加大环境治理力度,有效控制水土流失程度     

鄱阳湖生态区长期施肥对稻田土壤碳汇效应与固碳潜力的影响

在施肥条件下确定平衡状态时,土壤有机碳含量水平对于正确评价土壤的固碳潜力和制定合理的有机物质分配措施具有重要意义。分析了前人研究的江西省有机碳储量数据并采用Jenny模型对长期不同施肥下有机碳动态数据进行模拟。结果表明,鄱阳湖生态区有机碳储量占全省的46%,以鹰潭地区最高,九江地区最低。施肥明显增强了土壤的碳汇作用,单施有机肥或有机无机肥配施（70F+30M、50F+50M、30F+70M、NPKM、NPK+S、NPK+P和NPK+C）处理的土壤有机碳含量明显高于施化肥处理,以南昌县的30F+70M、进贤县的NPKM和余江县的NPK+P处理最高,其平衡时有机碳含量和固碳潜力分别较施化肥处理提高了3061%和6115%、3017%和5496%、3826%和7479%。因此,提高鄱阳湖生态区农田有机碳密度和固碳潜力最有效方法是有机无机肥配施,其配施方式以猪粪配施化肥相对最好,配施比例以70%有机肥配施30%化肥为宜     

Water Management Decision Making in the Face of Multiple Forms of Uncertainty and Risk

In the Wasatch Range Metropolitan Area of Northern Utah, water management decision makers confront multiple forms of uncertainty and risk. Adapting to these uncertainties and risks is critical for maintaining the long‐term sustainability of the region's water supply. This study draws on interview data to assess the major challenges climatic and social changes pose to Utah's water future, as well as potential solutions. The study identifies the water management adaptation decision‐making space shaped by the interacting institutional, social, economic, political, and biophysical processes that enable and constrain sustainable water management. The study finds water managers and other water actors see challenges related to reallocating water, including equitable water transfers and stakeholder cooperation, addressing population growth, and locating additional water supplies, as more problematic than the challenges posed by climate change. Furthermore, there is significant disagreement between water actors over how to best adapt to both climatic and social changes. This study concludes with a discussion of the path dependencies that present challenges to adaptive water management decision making, as well as opportunities for the pursuit of a new water management paradigm based on soft‐path solutions. Such knowledge is useful for understanding the institutional and social adaptations needed for water management to successfully address future uncertainties and risks.     

Regime shifts and resilience in China’s coastal ecosystems

Regime shift often results in large, abrupt, and persistent changes in the provision of ecosystem services and can therefore have significant impacts on human wellbeing. Understanding regime shifts has profound implications for ecosystem recovery and management. China’s coastal ecosystems have experienced substantial deterioration within the past decades, at a scale and speed the world has never seen before. Yet, information about this coastal ecosystem change from a dynamics perspective is quite limited. In this review, I synthesize existing information on coastal ecosystem regime shifts in China and discuss their interactions and cascading effects. The accumulation of regime shifts in China’s coastal ecosystems suggests that the desired system resilience has been profoundly eroded, increasing the potential of abrupt shifts to undesirable states at a larger scale, especially given multiple escalating pressures. Policy and management strategies need to incorporate resilience approaches in order to cope with future challenges and avoid major losses in China’s coastal ecosystem services.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0692-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

基于工业生态化建设的工业园区环境管理研究

工业园区是产业集聚的载体,是区域经济发展的引擎。工业园区同时又是污染产生排放集中地,我国工业园区在发展过程中随着经济总量扩大、资源和能源消耗的增加,出现了大量的环境问题,阻碍了园区的可持续发展。工业园区的环境管理可以从园区层面出发解决污染问题,这是个既复杂又重要的工作。本文在分析工业园区发展历程的基础上揭示了目前工业园区存在的环境问题,以及管理方面存在的缺陷和不足,发现总体上园区环境管理水平较差。工业生态化建设为进行合理的园区环境管理提供了一个契机,本文针对我国工业园区的发展现状及发展趋势,提出基于工业生态化建设的工业园区环境管理的对策:1提升生态工业的意识,鼓励公众参与;2确立生态化建设思想,以生态化建设促进环境管理效率的提升;3加强工业生态化建设相关政策法规、规划的完善和实施;4构建工业生态化建设信息服务平台,以生态化建设来实现工业园区科学的环境管理。     

Reviving wood-pastures for biodiversity and people: A case study from western Estonia

Wood-pastures are associated with high cultural and biodiversity values in Europe. However, due to their relatively low productivity, large areas of wood-pastures have been lost over the last century. In some areas, incentive schemes have been developed to revive wood-pastures. We investigated the effects of one such scheme in western Estonia. We compared the structure of grazed wood-pastures (old and restored) to those of abandoned wood-pastures and ungrazed forest stands to explore the effects of management, and conducted interviews with 24 farmers to investigate their motivations to carry out the management. We found a positive influence of active management on the semi-open structure of wood-pastures. Financial support was vital for management, but personal values related to tradition also played an important role. The interviewees differed widely in their range of motivations, suggesting that other strategies in addition to financial incentives would further improve the management of wood-pastures in the region.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0719-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Ecological citizenship and democracy: Communitarian versus agonistic perspectives

Grassroots environmental movements have recently started to question the focus on sustainable consumption as a main strategy to tackle climate change. They prefer to address individuals as citizens rather than as consumers, and focus on collective rather than individual change. Two prominent movements in this regard are Transition Towns and Climate Justice Action. While both movements criticise conventional approaches, they put forward entirely different strategies for what has to happen instead. Based on extensive qualitative research, this article analyses how these movements manifest themselves in Flanders (Belgium). The focus is on their different accounts of how and why collective practices have to be built, and the place they attribute to ‘the political’ in this. The analysis reveals the existence of two different forms of ecological citizenship: one communitarian, the other agonistic.