Enhancing generic ecological model for short-term prediction of Southern North Sea algal dynamics with remote sensing images

Physically based numerical modelling follows from the basic understanding of the underlying mechanisms and is often represented by a set of (partial differential) equations. It is one of the main approaches in population dynamics modelling. The emphasis of the model introduced in this paper is on the simulation of short-term spatial and temporal dynamics of harmful algal bloom (HAB) events. Total suspended matter (TSM) concentration is one of the dominant factors for harmful algal bloom (HAB) prediction in North Sea. However, the modelling of suspended matter contains a high degree of uncertainty in this area. Therefore, this research aims to achieve a better estimation for the short-term prediction of harmful algal bloom development in both space and time by using spatially distributed TSM retrieved from remotely sensed images as physically based model inputs. In order to supply complete spatially covered datasets for the physically based model instrument: generic ecological model (GEM), this research retrieves TSM information from MERIS images by means of proper estimation techniques including biharmonic splines and self-learning cellular automata. A better estimation of HAB spatial pattern development is achieved by adding spatially distributed TSM data as inputs to original GEM model, and it proved that chlorophyll-a concentration in this area is very sensitive to TSM concentration.     

基于RS&GIS的长白山地区生态安全评价研究

以遥感影像数据、专题数据、DEM数据、气象站实测数据和统计数据为数据源,采用极差法、层次分析法、综合指数法、RS&GIS等方法对长白山地区的生态安全进行了评价.结果表明:长白山地区生态安全水平呈现出明显的空间差异性,整体由中部向东西两端逐渐降低.各生态安全等级面积从大到小为临界安全等级、较安全等级、不安全等级、较不安全等级、安全等级.统计了各行政单元的平均生态安全指数和等级构成,各县市生态安全水平从高到低为长白县、抚松县、安图县、和龙市、临江市,各县市的生态安全等级构成也有所差异.长白山地区生态安全水平以临界安全等级为主,整体上生态环境质量一般,系统服务功能受到了一定程度的破坏.     

Structural equation model analysis for the evaluation of overall driving performance: A driving simulator study focusing on driver distraction

Objective: The present research relies on 2 main objectives. The first is to investigate whether latent model analysis through a structural equation model can be implemented on driving simulator data in order to define an unobserved driving performance variable. Subsequently, the second objective is to investigate and quantify the effect of several risk factors including distraction sources, driver characteristics, and road and traffic environment on the overall driving performance and not in independent driving performance measures.

Methods: For the scope of the present research, 95 participants from all age groups were asked to drive under different types of distraction (conversation with passenger, cell phone use) in urban and rural road environments with low and high traffic volume in a driving simulator experiment. Then, in the framework of the statistical analysis, a correlation table is presented investigating any of a broad class of statistical relationships between driving simulator measures and a structural equation model is developed in which overall driving performance is estimated as a latent variable based on several individual driving simulator measures.

Results: Results confirm the suitability of the structural equation model and indicate that the selection of the specific performance measures that define overall performance should be guided by a rule of representativeness between the selected variables. Moreover, results indicate that conversation with the passenger was not found to have a statistically significant effect, indicating that drivers do not change their performance while conversing with a passenger compared to undistracted driving. On the other hand, results support the hypothesis that cell phone use has a negative effect on driving performance. Furthermore, regarding driver characteristics, age, gender, and experience all have a significant effect on driving performance, indicating that driver-related characteristics play the most crucial role in overall driving performance.

Conclusions: The findings of this study allow a new approach to the investigation of driving behavior in driving simulator experiments and in general. By the successful implementation of the structural equation model, driving behavior can be assessed in terms of overall performance and not through individual performance measures, which allows an important scientific step forward from piecemeal analyses to a sound combined analysis of the interrelationship between several risk factors and overall driving performance.     

基于生态系统服务供需的雄安新区生态安全格局构建

生态安全格局构建是保障区域生态安全的关键。沿用“源地识别—阻力面构建—廊道提取”的生态安全格局构建模式,选取粮食供给、产水量、土壤保持、固碳释氧和生境维持5项生态系统服务供给指标,以及人口密度、地均GDP和土地利用程度3项生态系统服务需求指标,综合生态系统服务供需2方面识别重要生态源地,利用夜间灯光强度进行基本阻力面修正,采用最小累积阻力模型进行生态廊道提取,构建出雄安新区生态安全格局。研究表明:新区生态源地总面积约48433 km2,占新区土地总面积的313%,主要分布于新区西北部旱地和东南部水域;新区生态阻力系数空间分布较为破碎,大部分区域阻力值较低,间或分布高阻力值;新区生态廊道总长度18586 km,呈“Y”字型沿建设用地和水系分布,所处地类主要为旱地。基于生态系统服务供需的生态安全格局构建可为新区规划建设提供参考和借鉴。     

生态文明建设要点探索

生态文明是继工业文明之后更高层次的文明,而环境保护是生态文明建设的主要内容。在综合分析生态文明建设的目标、任务、本质、路径、关键和保障等理论问题的基础上,提出生态文明建设的要点:生态文明建设的目标是人与自然和谐,核心任务是生态环境保护,本质是发展方式的转变,关键是科技创新驱动,保障是制度建设。认为通过生态文明建设,可最终实现人类社会的可持续发展。     

龙山县生态公益林建设与管理现状及对策

简述了龙山县生态公益林建设与管理的现状,剖析了新时期发挥生态公益林的生态、社会效益与提高林农收入矛盾,分析了龙山县生态公益林建设与管理中存在的问题,提出了龙山县实现生态公益林生态、社会效益与提高林农收入的措施.参4.     

南运河重金属污染状况及生态风险评价

采集南运河的水样和沉积物样品,对其重金属污染状况和生态风险进行了分析评价。利用电感耦合等离子体质谱仪(ICP-MS)对水、沉积物中铅(Pb)、铬(Cr)、砷(As)、铜(Cu)和镉(Cd)浓度进行分析。结果显示南运河水样中这5种重金属浓度均低于地表水环境质量标准I类水质标准,虽然运河上游沉积物中As和Cd浓度较高,但沉积物中重金属浓度总体上均处于较低水平。地累积指数法计算显示:As和Cd在部分河段达到重度和中度污染水平,Cu、Cr、Pb均处于无污染水平。各种重金属的潜在生态风险指数(Eir)从大到小的顺序为:CdAsCuPbCr,与地累积指数法结果相似。南运河总的潜在生态风险指数(RI)均值为128.85,潜在生态风险程度为"中",沉积物中Cd和As是南运河需要优先控制的重金属污染物。     

基于管理成熟度的大型水利水电工程环境绩效评价研究

借鉴项目管理成熟度模型的研究方法,构建了大型水利水电工程环境管理成熟度模型,对模型的组成、内容和评价方法进行了定义.结合大型水利水电工程施工过程中的生态环境影响因素分析,建立了大型水利水电工程的环境绩效评价体系,并采用数据包络分析(DEA)动态评估模型进行了环境管理成熟模型评价.案例研究表明,大型水利水电工程环境绩效评价结果能较好的反映出工程施工期间的环境管理成熟度水平,并能反映持续改进方面的环境贡献,研究成果对于改善我国大型水利水电工程建设对生态环境的影响及制定相关政策具有重要意义.     

直接投菌法在城市重污染河流治理中的应用研究

在无截污和清除内源的情况下,对深圳市甘坑河采用梅花式接种法将本源微生物菌剂分两次直接接入河流水体及底泥中。结果表明,第1次接种后的4 d内各项水质指标都不稳定,4 d后,悬浮物、COD、TP和NH3-N等浓度下降,水质明显改善;但从第8天开始,COD、NH3-N和TP的去除率同时下降,本源微生物的处理效率开始降低,需进行第2次接种;第2次接种后,DO浓度提升至2.0 mg/L以上,COD、TP和NH3-N的去除率分别保持在40%、30%和40%以上。结果表明,直接投菌法在城市重污染河道治理中可以初步消除河道的黑臭现象,修复水质。     

某燃煤电厂周边农田土壤重金属污染特征及源解析

为探究某燃煤电厂污染物排放中重金属对周边农田土壤环境的影响,采用辐射环形法,以电厂烟囱为中心,布设31个农田土壤采样点.使用电感耦合等离子体质谱仪（ICP-MS）测定土壤中10种重金属含量,分析土壤中重金属含量特征及潜在生态风险,基于地统计空间插值和AERMOD扩散模型对重金属空间分异情况和污染特征进行探究,并运用PMF受体模型对重金属进行源解析.结果表明：①燃煤电厂周边农田土壤重金属ω（Pb）、ω（Mn）、ω（Zn）、ω（Cr）、ω（Ni）、ω（Cu）、ω（As）、ω（Co）、ω（Hg）和ω（Cd）的平均值分别为414.46、286.38、155.22、69.54、55.77、53.48、31.73、19.86、0.78和0.71 mg·kg^-1,其中Hg、Pb、Cd、As、Zn、Cu、Co、Cr和Ni的含量均超过陕西省土壤背景值,分别为背景值的26、19.36、7.88、2.83、2.23、2.49、1.87、1.11和1.93倍,元素Cd、Cr、Ni和Zn的高值区出现在电厂西北方向.②燃煤电厂周边农田土壤重金属潜在生态风险指数（RI）的均值为714.53,整体处于很强的生态风险水平,并在千河火车站、石油天然气公司附近出现高值富集区,Hg元素的单项潜在生态风险指数（E_i）为520.92,处于极强的生态风险水平.③燃煤电厂周边农田土壤重金属主要来源为煤炭燃烧的降尘源（32.16%）、工农业活动源（19.78%）、自然源（26.25%）和交通源（21.81%）.土壤重金属含量较高值均分布在距电厂1~2 km范围内,重金属含量在距离电厂1 km范围内较小,在1~2 km范围逐渐增大,大于2 km后又呈逐渐减小趋势.研究得出的电厂周边农田土壤重金属空间分异情况及富集特征,可为开展土壤污染治理提供理论及数据支撑.