雾霾重污染期间北京居民对高浓度PM2.5持续暴露的健康风险及其损害价值评估

开展短期内高浓度空气污染造成的人体健康风险评价以及健康经济损失研究,对推进城市大气污染防控,保证人民群众的健康水平具有重要的科学价值和实际意义.研究选择2013年1月发生的北京市雾霾重污染事件,采用泊松回归模型评价全市居民对10~15日高浓度PM2.5暴露的急性健康损害风险,并采用环境价值评估方法估算人群健康损害的经济损失.结果表明,短期高浓度PM2.5污染对人群健康风险较高,约造成早逝201例,呼吸系统疾病住院1 056例,心血管疾病住院545例,儿科门诊7 094例,内科门诊16 881例,急性支气管炎10 132例,哮喘7 643例.相关健康经济损失高达4.89亿元(95%CI:2.04~7.49),其中早逝与急性支气管炎、哮喘三者占总损失的90%以上.建议应针对不同人群不同健康终点的健康风险进行健康预警并开展及早医学干预,以降低类似空气重污染事件给居民健康带来的风险和损失.     

静态应力降与动态应力降比值方法在东北地区震后趋势判定中的应用

计算静态应力降与动态应力降之比Y值,根据Y值的大小初步判定地震类型,是震后趋势判定的一种新方法,对震后趋势快速判定有一定意义。通过计算我省历年有影响地震的Y值,发现2005年以来黑龙江省及其周边地区中强地震静态应力降与动态应力降之比(Y值)在0.3~0.6之间,总体来说Y值较大,其地震类型以孤立型地震为主,吉林省前郭县地震Y值为0.37,与我省其他中强地震相比,Y值相对较低,初步判定为震群型地震。     

城市聚乙烯燃气管道漏气案例统计与原因分析

目的 分析影响聚乙烯燃气管道漏气的薄弱部位及原因,为建立聚乙烯燃气管道安全服役评价方法可行性分析提供实际数据支撑。方法 收集、归纳某城市聚乙烯燃气管道实际应用中的290例漏气案例,从失效薄弱部位、服役年限、月份等多方面进行统计分析,并讨论聚乙烯燃气管道发生漏气的主要原因。结果 PE燃气管道安全服役的钢塑转换、套袖、焊接位置等连接位置是聚乙烯燃气管道服役的薄弱部位,服役年限与漏气案例比例成正比,且各部位的敏感月份相差较大。影响管道服役的主要因素是环境/应力长期耦合作用和外力突发作用。结论 土壤环境中存在的有机酸介质会加速管道老化,特别是对于施工等带来的固有薄弱缺陷、外界因素带来的表面损伤、应力集中等,在土壤服役环境中化学介质、温度、运行压力的耦合作用下,管道性能大大下降,产生漏气事故,给安全运行带来极大威胁。     

The concept of intrinsic value and transgenic animals

The creation of transgenic animals by means of modern techniques of genetic manipulation is evaluated in the light of different interpretations of the concept of intrinsic value. The zoocentric interpretation, emphasizing the suffering of individual, sentient animals, is described as an extension of the anthropocentric interpretation. In a biocentric or ecocentric approach the concept of intrinsic value first of all denotes independence of humans and a non-instrumental relation to animals. In the zoocentric approach of Bernard Rollin, genetic engineering is seen as a morally neutral tool, as long as the animal does not suffer as a result of it. Robert Colwell who defends an ecocentric ethic, makes a sharp distinction between wild animals and domesticated animals. Genetic manipulation of wild species is a serious moral issue, in contrast to genetic manipulation of domesticated species which is no problem at all for Colwell. Both authors do not take the species-specific nature (or telos) of domesticated animals seriously. When domestication is seen as a process between the two poles of the wild animal and the human construct (which can be patented), the technique of genetic manipulation can only be seen as a further encroachment upon the intrinsic value of animals. At the level of molecular biology, the concept of an animal's telos loses its meaning.     

Marine Ecological Research in New Zealand: Developing Predictive Models through the Study of No-Take Marine Reserves

Abstract:  New Zealand established its first no-take marine reserve more than 25 years ago. Twenty no-take marine reserves have now been created, although few of these are considered comparable. We considered whether existing conceptual models of population and community structure based only on data from exploited systems lack the baseline information of natural states necessary to make accurate predictions for new reserves. Three of the oldest and best-studied reserves are situated on the northeastern coast of New Zealand. These reserves are considered broadly comparable replicates, and research has shown the recovery of previously exploited predator populations and the reestablishment of trophic controls over community structure and productivity. None of the major changes was predicted when the reserves were created. All the observations from and experimental tests of hypotheses in these three ecologically comparable reserves have provided predictive models for future reserves. Recent surveys in newly created reserves, however, suggest that these models are bioregion and habitat specific. In these new reserves the recovery of previously exploited predators was predicted but did not always occur. Where trends were correctly predicted, the speed and amplitude of the changes were not accurately predicted. Research in New Zealand suggests that it is not yet possible to predict explicit outcomes for newly created reserves and less possible to predict detailed results for systems of reserves. Results from a representative system of reserves, including all major habitats within all bioregions and broadly comparable reserves, are needed. Such a system will enable the range and variety of natural ecosystem dynamics to be investigated and provide the controls necessary to measure the effects of exploitation.     

The interrelationships between resource-holding potential,resource-value and reproductive success in territorial males: How much variation can we explain?

A long-standing hypothesis in behavioural ecology posits that males with greater resource-holding potential (RHP) control resource sites deemed more valuable by sexually-receptive females and, thereby, males controlling such sites accrue greater reproductive success (RS). This hypothesis has historically been investigated using three separate but non-mutually exclusive relationships (male RHP vs. resource value, resource value vs. male RS and male RHP vs. RS). The relationships between these three variables are predicted to be strongly positive, however, due to measurement error and biological noise, perfect correlations (r = 1.0) are rare in biology even for well-established relationships. Moreover, the inaccurate identification of either the male trait(s) important to RHP or the resource characteristic sought by females will weaken the observed strength of the relationships. Here, I use meta-analysis to quantitatively describe the general pattern of these relationships in animals. I predict that the relationships between male RHP, resource-value and RS should be significantly positive (male RHP and resource-value should explain a large amount of the variation in male RS). My meta-analysis supports this hypothesis; however, in the best case scenario only ca. 20% of the variation in the response variable was explained. I conclude by identifying areas in which we need to improve our investigations of resource-defence animals and recommending approaches to meet these needs. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

城市可持续发展的关键自然资本研究

城市是社会、经济与环境相互作用最为集中与深刻的区域，随着城市环境问题的日益严重，城市可持续发展成为共同关注的焦点。自然资本在可持续发展体系中起到关键的作用，因此，识别城市系统的关键自然资本是实现城市可持续发展的前提。通过分析城市绿色空间的生态服务功能，结果表明绿色空间是影响城市可持续发展的重要的自然资本。在此基础上，提出了通过保护与投资于绿色空间两种途径实现城市可持续发展的措施与建议。     

大江大河从“公共资源”到“公地悲剧”演变的内在机理分析

江河提供了非常丰富的“非排它性”资源服务，因此容易陷入“公地悲剧”。历史上对长江、黄河等江河所提供的多维度要素资源价值理论认识上的滞后及误区，是引发此类江河向“公地悲剧”演变的基础性原因。现行的江河管理体制不能有效地协调中央与地方、地方与地方、部门与部门之间的资源行为及利益关系，从而诱发了地方等主体对江河资源的不相容使用和过度进入，而成为加速推进这一演变进程的制度性根源。在这一体制下，地方在与中央的博弈中，谋求当期地方收益的最大化；地方之间的财政逆向转移与升职竞争博弈，加剧了地方的行为扭曲；部门之间的边界模糊与势力竞争博弈，诱发了部门的行为扭曲。只有创立新的江河管理体制，才能规范地方等主体的行为，避免江河的“公地悲剧”命运。     

Elementary Structural Units of the Biosphere

Russian Journal of Ecology -