西安市LUCC预测生态系统服务价值损失

人类活动作用于土地资源,使LUCC（土地利用／土地覆被变化）在全球环境变化过程中起主导作用,随着国际LUCC研究计划的进展,各国依据本国的实际情况开展研究。对西安市以往五年（2000-2004年）的土地利用基础数据开展调查统计分析,建立灰色系统动态GM（1,1）模型,预测2005—2010年西安市土地利用结构变化状况,尝试计算西安市土地生态系统服务价值损失（简称生态损失）,用一种直观经济指标-货币来反映这种生态损失。预测2010年西安市生态损失为331、84×10^6元。     

Restorating marine coastal ecosystem health as a new goad for integrated catchment management in Tolo Harbour,Hong Kong,China

Abstract

The paper demonstrates why it is necessary to take the restoration of marine coastal ecosystem health as a new goal for integrated catchment management, in coastal area of the Tolo Harbour. The present goal of integrated catchment management (ICM) in the Tolo Harbour is to meet with Water Quality Objectives. The performance of an ICM plan, Tolo Harbour Action Plan (THAP), is evaluated by using marine coastal ecosystem health indicators including stress indicators and responses indicators. Since the implementation of THAP in 1988, some significant reduction in pollution loading has been observed—reduction of 83% of BOD load and 82% of TN between 1988 and 1999. There has been an improvement in the health state of Tolo Harbour marine coastal ecosystem as evidenced in the trends of the physical, chemical and biological indicators, although some reverse fluctuations in some periods exist. However, this can only be considered as the first sign of the ecosystem health restoration, since ecosystem health covers not only physical, chemical and biological aspects of an ecosystem, but also ecosystem-service-function aspect. It is recommended to take the restoration and protection of marine coastal ecosystem health as a new goal, instead of water quality objective management, for integrated catchment management in Tolo Harbour catchment. Steps to further improve the marine coastal ecosystem health of Tolo harbour are discussed in the paper.     

Integrating ecosystem services evaluation and landscape pattern analysis into urban planning based on scenario prediction and regression model

ABSTRACT

Urban planning has become a widely concern for minimizing the negative effects of urban expansion on terrestrial ecosystems. We developed an interdisciplinary modeling framework to evaluate the effectiveness and shortcomings of urban expansion management strategies. A three-step method was applied to Yinchuan Plain in the northwestern of China, including (1) analyzing the relationship between landscape pattern and ecosystem service values through mathematical statistics; (2) predicting landscape pattern and ecosystem services change under different scenarios based on cellular automaton model (SLEUTH-3r model); and (3) designing and validating optimized scenario through integrating historical analysis experiments and future multi-comparison suggestions. Results have suggested that landscape composition and configuration can significantly affect regional ecosystem service values, especially the connectivity and shape of landscape. Compact urban growth policy and medium environment protection policy are the appropriate setting for urban expansion plan. Optimization validation of the combined designed scenario implied the reliability of this method. Our results highlighted the significance of integrating application of landscape pattern analysis, ecosystem service value evaluation, model simulation and multi-scenario prediction in urban planning.     

氮沉降对陆地生态系统土壤有机碳含量影响的Meta分析

研究已证实大气氮沉降的增加显著影响了土壤有机碳的含量,然而其变化幅度在不同的实验样地具有较大的差异.基于在我国开展的49个模拟氮沉降野外实验的408组数据,利用Meta分析、Meta回归和线性回归等方法系统研究了样地气候、土壤属性以及氮素施用参数对施氮后土壤有机碳含量的影响.结果表明,样地的年均温（MAT）和年均降水量（MAP）与施氮后土壤有机碳含量变化幅度显著正相关（P<0.05）.在MAT或MAP较低（MAT<3℃,MAP<500 mm）的样地中,施氮后土壤有机碳含量显著下降;而在MAT或MAP较高（MAT>3℃,MAP>500 mm）的样地中,施氮后土壤有机碳含量则显著升高.土壤属性方面,在C：N较高（>15）或酸性（pH<6.5）土壤中,施氮后土壤有机碳积累明显（P<0.05）;而在C：N较低（≤15）以及中性或碱性（pH≥6.5）土壤中,施氮后土壤有机碳变化不明显（P >0.05）.此外,施氮后草原生态系统土壤有机碳含量明显下降（-5.34%）;而湿地生态系统土壤有机碳含量变化不明显;森林生态系统土壤有机碳表现出明显积累（10.52%）,特别是阔叶林生态系统（13.10%）.所有的因子中,土壤C：N是影响施氮后土壤有机碳变化幅度的主导因子.在施氮类型方面,施加硝酸铵或尿素后土壤有机碳含量显著升高,而施加硝态氮对其影响不显著.综上所述,在精确评估、预测和分析氮沉降对土壤有机碳含量的影响时,应综合考虑样地的气候、土壤属性以及氮素施用参数等因素对实验结果的影响.     

知识生产视角下应急管理学科建设的使命与路径

为厘清应急管理学科建设机制、推进应急管理学科良性发展,通过回顾学科建设历史,来分析应急管理学科建设面临的困境与肩负的使命,并提出相应的建设路径.研究表明:在知识生产模式转型视角下,应急管理学科建设面临知识生产者离散、知识创新度不足、知识转化率有限的三重困境,需要完成"朝向人才培养的应急管理知识直接再生产""朝向科学研究...     

Identifying priority areas for ecosystem service management in South African grasslands

Grasslands provide many ecosystem services required to support human well-being and are home to a diverse fauna and flora. Degradation of grasslands due to agriculture and other forms of land use threaten biodiversity and ecosystem services. Various efforts are underway around the world to stem these declines. The Grassland Programme in South Africa is one such initiative and is aimed at safeguarding both biodiversity and ecosystem services. As part of this developing programme, we identified spatial priority areas for ecosystem services, tested the effect of different target levels of ecosystem services used to identify priority areas, and evaluated whether biodiversity priority areas can be aligned with those for ecosystem services. We mapped five ecosystem services (below ground carbon storage, surface water supply, water flow regulation, soil accumulation and soil retention) and identified priority areas for individual ecosystem services and for all five services at the scale of quaternary catchments. Planning for individual ecosystem services showed that, depending on the ecosystem service of interest, between 4% and 13% of the grassland biome was required to conserve at least 40% of the soil and water services. Thirty-four percent of the biome was needed to conserve 40% of the carbon service in the grassland. Priority areas identified for five ecosystem services under three target levels (20%, 40%, 60% of the total amount) showed that between 17% and 56% of the grassland biome was needed to conserve these ecosystem services. There was moderate to high overlap between priority areas selected for ecosystem services and already-identified terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity priority areas. This level of overlap coupled with low irreplaceability values obtained when planning for individual ecosystem services makes it possible to combine biodiversity and ecosystem services in one plan using systematic conservation planning.     

Suitability of short or long conservation contracts under ecological and socio-economic uncertainty

Acquisition of land rights has become a primary tool used to protect terrestrial biodiversity. Fixed length contracts are often used when trying to secure conservation benefits on private land in agri-environment schemes and payment for environmental services schemes, but the duration of the conservation contracts used in different programmes varies. To date, very little research has been undertaken to determine the situations in which contracts of differing lengths are optimal or when conservation agencies or groups should use a portfolio of different contract lengths rather than relying on a single type. Using stochastic dynamic programming and related heuristic methods, we investigate how the choice between short or long conservation contracts is affected by uncertainty regarding the future availability of sites and their ecological condition. We also examine the benefits offered by using a portfolio of different contract lengths. Conservation agencies must pay private landowners a premium to secure longer agreements and because of this, shorter contracts are advantageous if sites are likely to remain available for conservation in the future. Long contracts are preferred when future site availability becomes more unlikely. In contrast to uncertainty over site availability, uncertainty over future ecological conditions has little effect on contract selection and only markedly influences the choice between short and long contracts when there is heterogeneity across sites in expected conservation outcomes and future availability of sites is also uncertain. Finally, when future site availability is unlikely, the use of a portfolio of short and long contracts would offer greater conservation gains than using either type in isolation, even though this option is not yet one that is commonly found in conservation practice.     

Spatially distributed modeling of the long-term carbon balance of a boreal landscape

Spatially and temporally distributed information on the sizes of biomass carbon (C) pools (BCPs) and soil C pools (SCPs) is vital for improving our understanding of biosphere-atmosphere C fluxes. Because the sizes of C pools result from the integrated effects of primary production, age-effects, changes in climate, atmospheric CO₂ concentration, N deposition, and disturbances, a modeling scheme that interactively considers these processes is important. We used the InTEC model, driven by various spatio-temporal datasets to simulate the long-term C-balance in a boreal landscape in eastern Canada. Our results suggested that in this boreal landscape, mature coniferous stands had stabilized their productivity and fluctuated as a weak C-sink or C-source depending on the interannual variations in hydrometeorological factors. Disturbed deciduous stands were larger C-sinks (NEP₂₀₀₄ = 150 gC m⁻² yr⁻¹) than undisturbed coniferous stands (e.g. NEP₂₀₀₄ = 8 gC m⁻² yr⁻¹). Wetlands had lower NPP but showed temporally consistent C accumulation patterns. The simulated spatio-temporal patterns of BCPs and SCPs were unique and reflected the integrated effects of climate, plant growth and atmospheric chemistry besides the inherent properties of the C pool themselves. The simulated BCPs and SCPs generally compared well with the biometric estimates (BCPs: r = 0.86, SCPs: r = 0.84). The largest BCP biases were found in recently disturbed stands and the largest SCP biases were seen in locations where moss necro-masses were abundant. Reconstructing C pools and C fluxes in the ecosystem in such a spatio-temporal manner could help reduce the uncertainties in our understanding of terrestrial C-cycle.     

Surface modelling of global terrestrial ecosystems under three climate change scenarios

A high accuracy and speed method (HASM) of surface modelling is developed to find a solution for error problem and to improve computation speed. A digital elevation model (DEM) is established on spatial resolution of 13.5 km × 13.5 km. Regression formulations among temperature, elevation and latitude are simulated in terms of data from 2766 weather observation stations scattered over the world by using the 13.5 km × 13.5 km DEM as auxiliary data. Three climate scenarios of HadCM3 are refined from spatial resolution of 405 km × 270 km to 13.5 km × 13.5 km in terms of the regression formulations. HASM is employed to simulate surfaces of mean annual bio-temperature, mean annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration ratio during the periods from 1961 to 1990 (T₁), from 2010 to 2039 (T₂), from 2040 to 2069 (T₃), and from 2070 to 2099 (T₄) on spatial resolution of 13.5 km × 13.5 km. Three scenarios of terrestrial ecosystems on global level are finally developed on the basis of the simulated climate surfaces. The scenarios show that all polar/nival, subpolar/alpine and cold ecosystem types would continuously shrink and all tropical types, except tropical rain forest in scenario A1Fi, would expand because of the climate warming. Especially at least 80% of moist tundra and 22% of nival area might disappear in period T₄ comparing with the ones in the period T₁. Tropical thorn woodland might increase by more than 97%. Subpolar/alpine moist tundra would be the most sensitive ecosystem type because its area would have the rapidest decreasing rate and its mean center would shift the longest distance towards west. Subpolar/alpine moist tundra might be able to serve as an indicator of climatic change. In general, climate change would lead to a continuous reduction of ecological diversity.     

Establishing IUCN Red List Criteria for Threatened Ecosystems

Abstract: The potential for conservation of individual species has been greatly advanced by the International Union for Conservation of Nature's (IUCN) development of objective, repeatable, and transparent criteria for assessing extinction risk that explicitly separate risk assessment from priority setting. At the IV World Conservation Congress in 2008, the process began to develop and implement comparable global standards for ecosystems. A working group established by the IUCN has begun formulating a system of quantitative categories and criteria, analogous to those used for species, for assigning levels of threat to ecosystems at local, regional, and global levels. A final system will require definitions of ecosystems; quantification of ecosystem status; identification of the stages of degradation and loss of ecosystems; proxy measures of risk (criteria); classification thresholds for these criteria; and standardized methods for performing assessments. The system will need to reflect the degree and rate of change in an ecosystem's extent, composition, structure, and function, and have its conceptual roots in ecological theory and empirical research. On the basis of these requirements and the hypothesis that ecosystem risk is a function of the risk of its component species, we propose a set of four criteria: recent declines in distribution or ecological function, historical total loss in distribution or ecological function, small distribution combined with decline, or very small distribution. Most work has focused on terrestrial ecosystems, but comparable thresholds and criteria for freshwater and marine ecosystems are also needed. These are the first steps in an international consultation process that will lead to a unified proposal to be presented at the next World Conservation Congress in 2012.