极值动态新Ⅰ型分布函数的模型及在汕头抗风防灾上的应用

最大风速分布函数的选择是抗风减灾的重要因素,迄今为止国内外所有可选择的分布函数,虽然对一个国家一些城市是好的,但是对另一些城市却不好,好的城市中,拟合优度准则检验结果也不能达到最佳位或趋近为1.本文采用动态的观点,根据不同城市的数据可用不同的参数值,使其可达到优度最佳值或趋近为1,在此思想基础上,改进了现在国内外绝大多数国家规范所采用的极值Ⅰ型,成为极值动态新Ⅰ型,是对分布函数选择彻底改革的一次尝试。按此原理,对汕头1959～1993共35年最大风速数据进行了分析,对各种概率条件下的风速风压提出了应用的数值。     

STATUS OF RIPARIAN ECOSYSTEMS IN THE UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: An attempt was made to review all available data on the extent and status of riparian ecosystems in the U.S.A. This report presents a synthesis of the findings, including some estimates of how much land was originally covered by woody riparian vegetation, and how much remains in that condition today. A synopsis of information is presented on the status of riparian ecosystems in each of 10 regions: California, Pacific Northwest, Rocky Mountain, Arid Southwest, Plains-Grasslands, Lake States, Corn Belt, Mississippi Delta, Northeast-Appalachian, and Southeast. Woody riparian plant communities once covered an estimated 75 to 100 million acres of land in the contiguous 48 states. Mankind has converted at least two-thirds of that nationwide acreage to other non-forest land uses and it is estimated that only 25 to 35 million acres of riparian plant communities remain in a near natural condition. Across the country, loss of riparian acreages is directly attributable to water resource development (especially channel modification and water impoundment), floodplain clearing for agriculture, and urbanization. In many states of the arid west, the midwest, and the lower Mississippi alluvial valley, riparian vegetation has been reduced in area by more than 80 percent. Riparian woodlands are one of this country's most heavily modified natural vegetation types.     

SIDE EFFECTS OF 58 YEARS OF COPPER SULFATE TREATMENT OF THE FAIRMONT LAKES,MINNESOTA1

The shallow Fairmont Lakes in southern Minnesota have been treated with copper sulfate for 58 years to reduce excessive algal growth. Copper sulfate was applied to five lakes at cumulative rates upo to 1647 kg/ha (1470 1b/acre), totaling 1.5 million kilograms. Data collected since treatment of the Fairmont Lakes began in 1921 provide alarming insights into lake responses to sustained chemical treatment with copper sulfate. Short-term and long-term effects have occurred. Short-term effects include: a) the intended temporary killing of algae, b) dissolved oxygen depletion by decomposition of dead algae, c) accelerated phosphorus recycling from the lake bed and recovery of the algal population within 7 to 21 days, and d) occasional fish kills due to oxygen depletion or copper toxicity or both. Long-term effects are shown to include: a) copper accumulation in the sediments, b) tolerance adjustments of certain species of algae to higher copper sulfate dosages, c) shift of species from green to blue-green algae and from game fish to rough fish, d) disappearance of macrophytes, and e) reductions in benthic macroinvertebrates. The conclusion is that while copper sulfate treatments enjoy great popularity because they kill and remove algae almost instantaneously, other immediate or cumulative side effects can be harmful to many other aquatic organisms.     

聚类分析和判别分析在安全评价中的综合应用

将多元统计方法中的聚类分析和Fisher判别分析综合应用于安全评价中,评价指标的系统效应权数有效避免了安全评价中人为赋予指标权重对评价结果的影响.分析了评价对象聚类的步骤和结果,探讨了评价对象所属安全等级的Fisher判别方法.最后通过对判别函数的分析与比较得出评价判别结果.     

城市绿地隐形蓄水系统的建立及生态功能分析

城市雨水资源的有效利用是建设节约型社会面临的问题之一。针对目前城市普遍重排水轻蓄水的现状，从提高水资源利用率和构建城市良性生态系统的角度，提出了城市绿地隐形蓄水系统的概念、结构、组成和蓄水原理，分析了隐形蓄水系统在抑制环境污染、利用和节约水资源、改善植物生长条件、促进生物多样性形成和保障水生态安全等方面的生态服务功能。     

高腰作训鞋穿用功能设计与分析

本文对我军新式高腰作训鞋的穿用功能设计进行了详细分析，并与现行高腰解放鞋进行比较，认为新式高腰作训鞋在抗茵防臭、鞋底防滑、帮面透气透湿、运动性、帮样及鞋楦设计等方面有不同程度的提高。     

中国安全经济贡献率的计量分析

安全经济贡献率的准确计算对于指导国家安全投入力度和宏观安全决策起着重要作用。为了准确计算中国安全生产对经济的贡献率,以弥补以往经验取值方法的局限,笔者通过建立计量经济学模型,获得了精确的安全产出与安全投入的函数关系,并得出我国安全生产规模报酬递增的结论。在此基础上又建立时间序列模型,预测出我国2005年的安全经济贡献率为3.01%,安全投入产出比为1.00∶1.81。从预测结果来看,计量模型收到了满意的结果,对国家宏观安全决策具有一定的指导意义。     

Direct and Indirect Effects of Soil Pollution by Lignite Mining

Lignite mining and processing has caused a pronounced impact both directly and indirectly on soils and ecosystems across large areas of the former GDR. We studied soils of pine forest ecosystems at sites affected by severe alkaline dust and sulphur deposition, stemming from lignite fired power plant emission, and at dumped sites from lignite mining. In this paper we summarize our main results and evaluate the long-term impact of lignite mining and combustion on the environment. The pine ecosystems on naturally developed soils show a clear effect of deposition history along a former deposition gradient with distinct changes in chemical properties of organic surface layers and mineral soil as well as in element turnover and cycling rates. Afforested sites on mining dumps are directly affected by the composition of the dumped substrates. Over a large area (800 km²) these substrates are dominated by Tertiary sediments with varying amounts of lignitic particles and pyrite that result in phytotoxic site conditions (pH < 3, high salt and metal contents). High amelioration doses of liming material (up to 200 t ha⁻¹) were applied for restoration purposes. We studied the development of these sites over a period of 60 years using a false-time series approach. Beside the extreme soil conditions, element budgets of these sites are characterized by very high element release rates over decades caused by pyrite oxidation and primary mineral weathering.     

ADAPTING EXISTING MODELS TO EXAMINE EFFECTS OF AGRICULTURAL CONSERVATION PROGRAMS ON STREAM HABITAT QUALITY1

Annual expenditures by the federal government in the United States for agricultural conservation programs increased about 80 percent with passage of the 2002 Farm Bill. However, environmental benefits of these programs have not been quantified. A national project is under way to estimate the effect of conservation practices on environmental resources. The watershed models intended for use in that project are focused on water quantity and quality and have minimal habitat assessment capability. Major impairments to aquatic ecosystems in many watersheds consist of physical habitat degradation, not water quality, suggesting that current models for this national initiative do not address one of the most significant aspects of aquatic ecosystem degradation. Currently used models contain some components relevant to aquatic habitat, and this paper describes specific components that should be added to allow rudimentary stream habitat quality assessments. At least six types of variables could be examined for ecological impact: land use, streamflow, water temperature, streambed material type, large woody debris, and hydraulic conditions at base flow. All of these variables are influenced by the presence, location, and quality of buffers. Generation of stream corridor ecological or habitat quality indices might contribute to assessments of the success or failure of conservation programs. Additional research is needed to refine procedures for combining specific measures of stream habitat into ecologically meaningful indices.     

中国大陆地区年最大平均风速的概率密度函数

根据中国大陆地区1951-2002年的实测风速数据资料，采用密度演化方法进行了各站点年最大平均风速的概率密度函数估计，给出了大陆地区年最大平均风速均值和标准差的等值线分布图。与常用的基于拟合优度检验的概率密度函数估计和统计量分析不同，所提方法不需要进行先验分布类型的假定，可以通过直接计算给出与基本数据经验分布函数符合得较好的概率密度函数与概率分布函数。对比研究表明，该方法给出的统计结果是可信的，具有工程实用参考价值。