PREDICTING FECAL COLIFORM BACTERIA LEVELS IN THE CHARLES RIVER,MASSACHUSETTS, USA1

In Massachusetts, the Charles River Watershed Association conducts a regular water quality monitoring and public notification program in the Charles River Basin during the recreational season to inform users of the river's health. This program has relied on laboratory analyses of river samples for fecal coliform bacteria levels, however, results are not available until at least 24 hours after sampling. To avoid the need for laboratory analyses, ordinary least squares (OLS) and logistic regression models were developed to predict fecal coliform bacteria concentrations and the probabilities of exceeding the Massachusetts secondary contact recreation standard for bacteria based on meteorological conditions and streamflow. The OLS models resulted in adjusted R²s ranging from 50 to 60 percent. An uncertainty analysis reveals that of the total variability of fecal coliform bacteria concentrations, 45 percent is explained by the OLS regression model, 15 percent is explained by both measurement and space sampling error, and 40 percent is explained by time sampling error. Higher accuracy in future bacteria forecasting models would likely result from reductions in laboratory measurement errors and improved sampling designs.     

页岩气加砂压裂高压管汇失效爆裂风险 控制措施研究与实践

随着页岩气平台井工厂化压裂施工启动,在大排量、高压力、长时间施工条件下,高压管汇失效爆裂大幅增加。为减少高压管汇在压裂过程中失效爆裂风险,运用故障假设、因果分析法从人的因素、物的因素、技术工艺、生产管理、工作环境5个方面分析事故的原因,提出了提升采购产品质量、修订完善高压管汇使用技术规范和管理制度、实施专业化管理、应用大数据管理高压管汇、优化现场地面高压管汇流程分配布局设计与联接工艺等高压管汇失效爆裂风险预防控制措施和失效后应急安全防护措施,建立了生命周期全过程、专业化的高压管汇失效爆裂防控与应急防护体系,实现风险可防受控。为页岩气压裂作业的安全提供了参考。     

城乡接合部居民楼火灾风险评价及防控对策研究

为了准确探究城乡接合部居民楼火灾事故致因机理,预防与控制城乡接合部日常生产与生活过程中引发火灾事故的有效途径,建立信息面更全、实际性更强的火灾风险评估模型是目前行之有效的手段。基于湖南省某地发生火灾事故的实际情况,根据事故树分析法,以城乡接合部居民楼火灾事故为顶事件构建事故树,计算得到事故树的最小割集、最小径集和结构重要度,研究城乡接合部居民楼火灾事故的发生模式、致因因素及影响程度,为改善城乡接合部居民楼火灾安全提供重要的理论依据,并提出相应的防控措施及对策。     

Experimental study on the synergistic inhibition effect of nitrogen and ultrafine water mist on gas explosion in a vented duct

In this study, in order to research the synergistic inhibition effect of nitrogen and ultrafine water mist on gas explosion in a vented duct, a semi-confined transparent chamber was designed with the size of 120 × 120 × 840 mm, and the experiments were carried out with stoichiometric methane/air premixed mixture (fraction of methane: 9.5%), adding different fractions of nitrogen and ultrafine water mist. The experimental results showed the following: The combination of nitrogen and ultrafine water mist had a synergistic inhibiting effect on methane/air explosion, which was preferable to the single use of any kind. With the increase of spraying time of water mist and fraction of nitrogen, the initial shape of the explosion flame became snakelike, and at the same time the peak flame propagation speed and peak overpressure decreased significantly. When the nitrogen fraction was increased to 10% and the mist spraying time was increased to 2min, synergistic inhibiting effect on overpressure was high efficient. However, with the increase of spraying time of water mist and fraction of nitrogen going on, the amount of increase of explosion inhibition efficiency was gradually reduced.     

2016—2020年全国化工和危险化学品事故分析研究*

为分析“十三五”期间（2016—2020年）我国化工和危险化学品事故发生情况，统计“十三五”期间化工和危险化学品事故数量及死亡人数，从发生月份、发生区域、行业分布等方面分析事故特征，从事故类别、事故环节、关键作业等方面分析事故原因，总结2011—2020年我国化工和危险化学品事故发展趋势，按照全国4大经济区域研究2013—2020年事故特征。结果表明:“十三五”期间我国化工和危险化学品事故数量呈下降趋势，死亡人数出现波动，总体形势较为平稳。2011—2020年化工和危险化学品事故风险向中西部转移趋势明显，东北、西部地区事故死亡率普遍高于东部地区。研究结果可为相关行业从业者及监管部门提供决策参考。     

Discussing why population growth is still ignored or denied

Due to a number of factors outlined in this article, the issue of population growth is excluded from the sustainability discussion. In this article, we explore some of the ethical presumptions that underlie the issues linking population growth and sustainability. Critics argue that action to address population creates social and economic segregation, and portray overpopulation concerns as being “anti-poor,” “anti-developing country,” or even “antihuman.” Yet, de-linking demographic factors from sustainability concerns ignores significant global realities and trends, such as the ecological limits of the Earth, the welfare and long-term livelihood of the most vulnerable groups, future prospects of humanity, as well as the ecosystems that support society.     

Pyrolysis and catalytic pyrolysis as a recycling method of waste CDs originating from polycarbonate and HIPS

Pyrolysis appears to be a promising recycling process since it could convert the disposed polymers to hydrocarbon based fuels or various useful chemicals. In the current study, two model polymers found in WEEEs, namely polycarbonate (PC) and high impact polystyrene (HIPS) and their counterparts found in waste commercial Compact Discs (CDs) were pyrolysed in a bench scale reactor. Both, thermal pyrolysis and pyrolysis in the presence of two catalytic materials (basic MgO and acidic ZSM-5 zeolite) was performed for all four types of polymers. Results have shown significant recovery of the monomers and valuable chemicals (phenols in the case of PC and aromatic hydrocarbons in the case of HIPS), while catalysts seem to decrease the selectivity towards the monomers and enhance the selectivity towards other desirable compounds.     

高压输电系统对通信局(站)危险影响中地电流系数的确定

高压输电系统发生接地短路故障时,会产生一个地电位升,对通信局(站)会危险影响,为了计算这个危险影响的大小,首先能够准确的计算出高压输电系统的地电流系数。本文论述了高压输电系统对通信局(站)危险影响中地电流系数的确定,介绍了地电流系数的定义,并分析了不同危险情况下地电流系数的计算。     

The city as a refuge for insect pollinators

Research on urban insect pollinators is changing views on the biological value and ecological importance of cities. The abundance and diversity of native bee species in urban landscapes that are absent in nearby rural lands evidence the biological value and ecological importance of cities and have implications for biodiversity conservation. Lagging behind this revised image of the city are urban conservation programs that historically have invested in education and outreach rather than programs designed to achieve high‐priority species conservation results. We synthesized research on urban bee species diversity and abundance to determine how urban conservation could be repositioned to better align with new views on the ecological importance of urban landscapes. Due to insect pollinators’ relatively small functional requirements—habitat range, life cycle, and nesting behavior—relative to larger mammals, we argue that pollinators put high‐priority and high‐impact urban conservation within reach. In a rapidly urbanizing world, transforming how environmental managers view the city can improve citizen engagement and contribute to the development of more sustainable urbanization.     

Parks versus PES: Evaluating direct and incentive-based land conservation in Mexico

Protected areas (PAs) and payments for ecosystem services (PES) are the top two mechanisms available for countries to achieve international REDD agreements, yet there are few empirical comparisons of their effects. We estimate the impacts of PAs and PES on forest conservation, poverty reduction, and population change at the locality level in Mexico in the 2000s. Both policies conserved forest, generating an approximately 20–25% reduction in expected forest cover loss. PES created statistically significant but small poverty alleviation while PAs had overall neutral impacts on livelihoods. Estimates by individual policy type for the same level of deforestation risk indicate that biosphere reserves and PES balanced conservation and livelihood goals better than strict protected areas or mixed-use areas. This suggests that both direct and incentive-based instruments can be effective, and that policies combining sustainable financing, flexible zoning, and recognition of local economic goals are more likely to achieve conservation without harming livelihoods.