POTENTIAL WATER USE AND AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION PATTERNS UNDER ALTERNATIVE WATER PRICES1

Out study deals with the demand for water and alternative agricultural production and land use patterns under varying prices for both surface and ground water. We derive irrigation water demands for both the United States and regions of it. Not only is a different amount of water used at each set of water prices but also a different mix of crops, livestock, and production technology develops among the different regions. Under the highest set of prices used, more than fourteen million acres are converted into dryland farming. Total irrigated water use decreases by more than 25 million acre-feet. Irrigated crop yields are reduced and cropping patterns shift away from irrigation. Commodity shadow prices increase as much as 15 percent under high prices for both surface and ground water. A redistribution of farm income occurs between irrigated and dryland regions.     

弹性填料净化受污染入湖河流的现场试验研究

利用新型弹性填料作为生物膜载体,将其直接布置在林庄港河道中,研究在不影响河流生态系统结构和使用功能的前提下,弹性填料对河流微污染水体的强化净化效果.现场试验在挂膜成功后共运行了半年.结果表明,弹性填料对氨氮的去除效果最好.它在整个运行期间对高锰酸钾指数的平均净去除率为5.4%,其中最高为9.9%;氨氮净去除率在5.35%～39.91%,总磷的净去除率最高也达到了28.6%.同时细菌学检验结果表明,高锰酸钾指数的去除率与附着在填料丝上的异养菌的数量存在正比关系;而亚硝酸菌和硝酸菌的数量也与氨氮的去除率变化相匹配.     

山西省火电和大气环境污染宏观控制预警研究

采用能源弹性系数分析法,利用统计年鉴和环境影响评价报告书提供的数据,对山西省火电行业产生的大气污染状况进行了研究.结果表明:在现阶段的常规模式发展下,山西省火电行业污染严峻,将在很大程度上加剧当前山西省大气污染严重的态势;定义火电生产弹性系数为0.8时的发展方式为预警模式,在该模式下污染可得到一定控制;只有当进入火电生产弹性系数为0.5的和谐模式发展时,才能大幅减少SO₂和NO_x的排放.建议通过采取强化宏观调控、严格审批以及加强技术改造,将山西省火电行业的火电生产弹性系数控制在0.8以下.      

Q345(16Mn)钢在恒温加载条件下的应力-应变曲线和弹性模量

为评估和分析钢结构的耐火性能,对我国10个钢厂生产的16Mn钢进行152次恒温加载试验研究。结果表明,钢材的应力-应变曲线随温度升高,应力变小而应变增大,曲线斜率即弹性模量随温度升高和应变增大而趋于零。钢材在高温下的弹塑性性质非常明显,在钢结构高温性能分析中应当考虑这种特性。依据试验结果构建了以表格形式表达的钢材折线应力-应变曲线和弹性模量,为火灾下钢结构的变形和温度应力计算提供参考。     

The impacts of anthropogenic factors on the environment in Nigeria

Generally speaking, there has been a consensus on the primary drivers of anthropogenic induced environmental degradation. However, little progress has been made in determining the magnitude of the impacts, particularly in developing countries. This creates a lacuna that needs to be filled up. The purpose of this study therefore is to ascertain the degree of anthropogenic induced environmental impacts in Nigeria. To achieve the aim, fossil fuel consumption was used as a surrogate for carbon dioxide emissions while the magnitude of the impacts was determined by regression statistics and the STIRPAT model. The results show that only three variables, namely population, affluence and urbanization, were statistically significant and that the regression model accounts for 60% of the variation in the environmental impacts. However, population and affluence, which have ecological elasticities of 1.699 and 2.709, respectively, are the most important anthropogenic drivers of environmental impacts in Nigeria while urbanization, with an elasticity of -0.570, reduces the effect of the impacts. This implies that modernization brings about a reduction in environmental impacts. The paper therefore makes a significant contribution to knowledge by successfully testing the STIRPAT model in this part of the world and by being the first application of the model at political units below the regional or nation states.     

A Multi‐Scale Analysis of Low‐Rise Apartment Water Demand through Integration of Water Consumption,Land Use,and Demographic Data

Over the past decades, multi‐unit housing developments have been vastly expanded across urban areas due to the population growth. To properly supply water to this growing sector, it is essential to understand the determinants of its water use. However, this task has largely remained unexplored through the empirical study of water demand mainly due to the scarcity of data in this sector. This study integrated apartment water consumption, property characteristics, weather, water pricing, and census microdata to overcome this issue. Using a rich source of GIS‐based urban databases in Auckland, New Zealand, the study developed a large dataset containing the information of 18,000 low‐rise apartments to evaluate the determinants of water use both in the household scale and aggregated scale. The household‐scale demand analysis helped to assess the heterogeneity in responses to the demand drivers specifically water price across different consumer groups, whereas the aggregated analysis revealed the determinants behind the spatial variation in water demand at the census area unit level. Through applying panel data models, the study revealed the household size as the most important determinant of apartment water use in Auckland, where other socioeconomic factors, building features, and water pricing were not significant determinants. This knowledge of determinants of water demand can help water planners to better manage water demand in the compact urban environments.     

基于STIRPAT模型的甘肃省环境影响分析

能源短缺已成为全球资源环境的主要问题之一,辩明人类活动各因素对能源消费的影响程度,并据此制定和实施可持续的能源消费政策是当前的研究热点。以STIRPAT模型为分析工具,以甘肃省1991～2009年能源消费总量为环境影响指标,分解了人文因素对环境影响的作用大小。结果表明,富裕程度的提高和城市化进程的推进都能够加剧环境的恶化,而且城市化对环境影响的弹性系数是富裕对环境影响弹性系数的278倍。在观测数据范围内,尚未出现环境Kuznets曲线的拐点,仍然处于曲线的上升段。居民消费结构的多样化有利于降低能源消费,其对环境影响的抑制作用略低于富裕对环境影响的加剧作用。最后讨论了STIRPAT模型的优缺点,并指出甘肃省主要相关因子对环境影响的作用机理还有待更深一步的研究     

城市发展与水环境污染的研究

本文研究了城市发展与水环境污染的关系。运用灰色关联分析表明,对水污染排放的影响程度大小依次为:人口密度(γ1=0.4456)工业发展(γ3=0.3498)环保投入(γ2=0.2656)。通过弹性系数预测法分析了上海废水排放与人均GDP的发展趋势。     

与限控CO2排放有关的若干指标分析

本文针对美国政府近来提出的未来10年问使其GDP的CO2排放强度下降18%的承诺，就与限控CO2排放相关的若干指标，包括GDP的CO2排放强度、CO2排放对GDP的弹性、能源消费弹性、能源消费的CO2排放强度、GDP的能源消费强度等相互间的关系以及其年变化率与GDP年增长率之间的关系，进行了定量的数学推导，并以确定的数学关系式为工具，对美国承诺所涉及的经济增长、能源消费等相关问题进行了分析。     

大尺度薄板激光焊接前后的弹性实验

研究了激光焊接对大尺度薄板弹性的影响。实验测试了焊接前后的弹性ˉ位移曲线。通过显著性检验 ,判断弹性改变是否发生。实验结果对汽车行业采用激光加工技术具有一定的参考意义。