基于理性预期理论的大气污染经济成本评估

我国大气污染形势严峻,科学合理地评估大气污染的经济损失不仅有益于政策效益分析,同时是“绿色国民经济”核算的一项基础性工作。基于我国2013年2月到2018年7月的区县月度房屋交易数据和7种大气污染指标(AQI、SO₂、NO₂、CO、O₃、PM₁₀、PM_2.5)的浓度数据,运用特征价格模型实证量化大气污染物减少的边际支付意愿(MWTP)和总经济损失。首先通过改变理性预期的时间段验证理性预期假设的成立,在此基础上采用理性预期方法解决遗漏变量所导致的内生性问题。研究结果显示:①NO₂、CO、PM_2.5和PM₁₀每上升1μg/m³,房价分别降低约2.04%、0.028%、0.34%和0.39%;而SO₂与O₃对房价的影响并不显著。②近年来大气污染的经济损失有所降低,政府的治理效果显著,但仍不容小觑。2013年AQI、PM₁₀和PM_2.5未达标导致的经济损失分别约为35600亿元、19300亿元和24100亿元,约占当年GDP的6.06%、3.29%和4.11%;2018年分别降低至19200亿元、5300亿元和6700亿元,占当年GDP的2.14%、0.60%和0.74%。尽管PM₁₀和PM_2.5浓度也在逐年下降,但仍未达到《环境空气质量标准》所要求的二级限值。最终评估结果显示,PM₁₀和PM_2.5二者导致的经济损失的加总数值,与AQI得到的数值相差无异。进一步证实了我国当前大气污染导致的社会经济福利损失主要是来自PM₁₀和PM_2.5的超标,因此治理“雾霾”是改善当前空气质量的关键。     

The role of capital deepening in China’s energy transition

ABSTRACT

This paper provides a theoretical model to explain the causality between China’s energy transition and capital deepening found by the empirical study. We prove that in the equilibrium, China’s energy transition is endogenously determined by capital deepening due to the homogeneity of electricity and the monopolistic competition features of China’s electricity market. Price effect, which is the effect of change in relative factor price, will affect energy transition only if the policy intervenes electricity price in terms of the primary sources from which it is generated. We propose that investment can promote energy transition by stimulating capital deepening which is biased to clean energy development. In this regard, our paper provides a new way of thinking for other developing countries to design an effective energy transition policy.     

碳交易机制下可再生能源投资价值与投资时机研究

中国承诺2017年启动全国性碳排放交易系统,在碳交易机制下,可再生能源项目可以通过CCER交易获得额外收益。由于碳价格是随着市场条件而随机波动的,碳价波动性使得可再生能源发电项目投资具有了期权性质的权利,即未来不确定性可能包含更高的价值。可再生能源企业在做投资决策时,可以选择立即投资,也可以选择推迟投资,等待更多信息来提高项目收益,而立即投资的项目回报必须足够高以克服等待期权的蕴含价值。为了研究碳价波动下可再生能源项目投资,本文采用实物期权法的三叉树模型,测算了三类可再生能源发电项目投资的npv及其实物期权价值(ROV)。根据延迟实物期权决策规则,三类项目均执行期权延迟投资决策。本文还计算了在无政府补贴和有政府补贴两种情形下,三种可再生能源项目在不同时点的栏杆价格,以确定项目的投资时机。栏杆价格随着政府补贴的增加而逐步下降,说明政府补贴会促进可再生能源项目投资;栏杆价格随着时间的推移而逐步上升,意味着时间跨度越大,不确定性越大,需要更高碳市场价格来确定投资时机。本文对影响可再生能源项目投资因素敏感性进行了分析,结果表明碳价波动率与可再生能源发电项目的栏杆价格呈现正相关的关系,说明碳价波动性增加了企业投资的期权价值,却推迟了企业开展投资的时间。随着中国碳交易体系的不断完善,碳价波动幅度会趋于平稳,从而促进发电企业进行可再生能源发电项目投资。     

燃煤电厂的硫平衡及SO2排放量的确定

对燃煤电厂的硫平衡进行了研究,同时对如何准确、简便的确定燃煤电厂SO2的排放量进行了探讨。     

运用价格杠杆，促进环境保护产业的发展

环境保护产业作为“朝阳产业”,正在成为新的经济增长点。应运用价格杠杆,在建设骨干企业集团、健全环境保护产品市场体系、排污收费制度、价格信息服务等方面,推动环保产业的发展     

丹麦风电调峰调频机制探讨及对中国的启示

研究了丹麦风电调峰调频的机制,分析了日前市场、短期市场与平衡市场对调峰调频的作用,总结了丹麦电网成功调节高穿透率风电波动的原因,提出了对我国的启示。     

一种新型除尘电源及其节电机理分析

介绍一种新型除尘电源——F系列高频、高压静电除尘电源。通过实际工程应用并与工频电源的耗电进行了比较,得出F系列电源节电的结论,并对这一结论做了节电机理分析。     

Controlling groundwater pumping online

Groundwater over-pumping is a major problem in several countries around the globe. Since controlling groundwater pumping through water flow meters is hardly feasible, the surrogate is to control electricity usage. This paper presents a framework to restrict groundwater pumping by implementing an annual individual electricity quota without interfering with the electricity pricing policy. The system could be monitored online through prepaid electricity meters. This provides low transaction costs of individual monitoring of users compared to the prohibitive costs of water flow metering and monitoring. The public groundwater managers' intervention is thus required to determine the water and electricity quota and watch the electricity use online. The proposed framework opens the door to the establishment of formal groundwater markets among users at very low transaction costs. A cost–benefit analysis over a 25-year period is used to evaluate the cost of non-action and compare it to the prepaid electricity quota framework in the Batinah coastal area of Oman. Results show that the damage cost to the community, if no active policy is implemented, amounts to (−$288) million. On the other hand, the implementation of a prepaid electricity quota with an online management system would result in a net present benefit of $199 million.     

A Multi‐Scale Analysis of Low‐Rise Apartment Water Demand through Integration of Water Consumption,Land Use,and Demographic Data

Over the past decades, multi‐unit housing developments have been vastly expanded across urban areas due to the population growth. To properly supply water to this growing sector, it is essential to understand the determinants of its water use. However, this task has largely remained unexplored through the empirical study of water demand mainly due to the scarcity of data in this sector. This study integrated apartment water consumption, property characteristics, weather, water pricing, and census microdata to overcome this issue. Using a rich source of GIS‐based urban databases in Auckland, New Zealand, the study developed a large dataset containing the information of 18,000 low‐rise apartments to evaluate the determinants of water use both in the household scale and aggregated scale. The household‐scale demand analysis helped to assess the heterogeneity in responses to the demand drivers specifically water price across different consumer groups, whereas the aggregated analysis revealed the determinants behind the spatial variation in water demand at the census area unit level. Through applying panel data models, the study revealed the household size as the most important determinant of apartment water use in Auckland, where other socioeconomic factors, building features, and water pricing were not significant determinants. This knowledge of determinants of water demand can help water planners to better manage water demand in the compact urban environments.     

基于时变参数模型的中国区域碳排放权价格调控机制研究

区域碳排放权价格的差异制约了中国全国性碳市场的建立,亟需寻求价格调控方式。本文通过Phillips and Sul模型分析了北京、深圳、上海等碳排放权价格收敛性,结果显示单纯市场作用无法形成统一价格,进而运用状态空间方法构建时变参变量模型,从能源价格、经济发展和政策制度等角度,分析了碳排放权价格差异的影响因素组成结构,提出了价格调控机制。认为降低焦炭价格、减缓经济发展速度、提升交易市场活跃程度以及加大违约处罚力度,是缩小中国区域碳排放权价格差异,形成统一价格的有效调控方式,为建立和完善中国统一的碳排放权交易体系提供了决策支持。