基于人的认知可靠性模型(HCR)的接车进路办理诊断时间的研究

接发列车作业事故在铁路运输事故中占有相当大的比重。为减少接车作业事故的发生,合理制定车站接车进路办理时的诊断时间是保证接车作业安全的关键。针对车站采用写实法查定时具有较大随意性的问题,提出采用人的认知可靠性(HCR)模型,根据人因失误概率计算接车作业诊断时间的方法,并在自动闭塞区段通过模拟机实验进行了验证。结果表明,HCR模型确定的诊断时间与人因失误之间的关系与写实法的测定数据具有良好的符合性;作业人员的训练水平对诊断时间有较大的影响;利用该模型,根据作业人员的训练水平与可接受的人因失误概率,可以确定接车进路办理的最佳诊断时间,或对写实法测定的诊断时间进行订正。     

基于DEMATEL方法的海运行为形成因子影响关系分析

为揭示并量化海运人因可靠性分析(HRA)中行为形成因子(PSF)间复杂的影响关系,采用DEMATEL方法对航海人员值班任务中9个PSF的依赖关系进行建模和分析,并验证该方法的有效性。结果表明:船上组织的完善程度、驾驶台班组成员的合作质量、可用时间等PSF在系统中的作用大;船上组织的完善程度、人机界面(MMI)与运行支持的完善性、值班区间以及培训和准备的充分性4个PSF为原因因素,驾驶台班组成员的合作质量、同时出现的目标任务数量、可用时间、船上工作及船舶航行条件和操作规程/计划的可用性5个PSF为结果因素。安全管理人员应针对作用大或原因因素中的PSF制定安全管理措施,改善情景环境,提高人因可靠性。     

基于时变失效的桥式起重机结构可靠性分析

为提高我国起重机产品的安全可靠性水平,用时变可靠性理论分析桥式起重机金属结构。以桥式起重机金属结构为研究对象,时变可靠性理论为基础,研究桥式起重机金属结构的载荷时变可靠性模型和抗力时变可靠性模型,建立桥式起重机金属结构失效状态的时变可靠性数学模型。通过工程算例分析,揭示金属结构抗力随时间衰减与否对可靠度与失效概率的影响,得到不同金属结构抗力衰减系数下桥式起重机主梁金属结构可靠度和失效概率。探索桥式起重机金属结构时变可靠性安全评估方法。对比金属结构抗力衰减系数分别为0.000 2和0.000 3时的分析结果,发现金属结构系统的可靠性随金属结构抗力衰减系数的增加而降低。     

基于Matlab的火灾探测报警系统可靠度Monte Carlo仿真

介绍了火灾探测报警系统的结构,指出了火灾探测报警系统失效原因,针对火灾探测报警系统的特点,确定了蒙特卡洛可靠度分析法.给出了系统的概率模型,确定了在Matlab下应用Monte Carlo方法对火灾探测报警系统的可靠度进行仿真的具体步骤,得到火灾探测报警系统可靠度仿真曲线.将仿真结果与试验结果相比较,基本一致,验证了该仿真方法能正确描述火灾探测报警系统的可靠度随使用寿命的变化规律,为进一步应用该方法来分析火灾探测报警系统的的各可靠性指标提供了理论基础.     

飞行员人因可靠性定量预测

为有效预测飞行员的人因可靠性,以保障飞行安全,基于认知可靠性与失误分析法(CREAM)的扩展法,建立飞行员人因可靠性定量预测模型。依据飞行员的任务特点,调整认知行为及认知功能。通过优化共同绩效条件(CPC)因子水平等级,并增加新的因子,改进CPC因子依赖规则,用于修正因子的初始评估结果,解决扩展法未考虑因子间关系的问题,从而完成模型的建立。利用回看分析法验证模型的有效性,采用所建立的模型和扩展法分别对已发生的飞行案例进行预测,并与实际发生结果对比分析。结果表明,与扩展法相比,采用飞行员定量预测模型得到的预测结果与案例发生结果所反映的控制模式更为匹配。     

Utility of biological sensor tags in animal conservation

Electronic tags (both biotelemetry and biologging platforms) have informed conservation and resource management policy and practice by providing vital information on the spatial ecology of animals and their environments. However, the extent of the contribution of biological sensors (within electronic tags) that measure an animal's state (e.g., heart rate, body temperature, and details of locomotion and energetics) is less clear. A literature review revealed that, despite a growing number of commercially available state sensor tags and enormous application potential for such devices in animal biology, there are relatively few examples of their application to conservation. Existing applications fell under 4 main themes: quantifying disturbance (e.g., ecotourism, vehicular and aircraft traffic), examining the effects of environmental change (e.g., climate change), understanding the consequences of habitat use and selection, and estimating energy expenditure. We also identified several other ways in which sensor tags could benefit conservation, such as determining the potential efficacy of management interventions. With increasing sensor diversity of commercially available platforms, less invasive attachment techniques, smaller device sizes, and more researchers embracing such technology, we suggest that biological sensor tags be considered a part of the necessary toolbox for conservation. This approach can measure (in real time) the state of free‐ranging animals and thus provide managers with objective, timely, relevant, and accurate data to inform policy and decision making.     

煤矿照度对人反应时间和可靠度的影响研究

煤矿综采工作面狭窄,工作环境昏暗,照明环境普遍不好,是近年来井下事故多发的重要因素之一。针对目前煤矿综采工作面存在的照度问题,通过控制光照时间和操作难度,利用舒尔特表测算反应时间和操作可靠度,使用SPSS20. 0和Excel进行数据处理,设计试验组和对照组来进行对比试验。结果表明,1)从反应时间来看,0～25 min,试验组平均反应时间的变化趋势与对照组相反,被试者的注意力先下降后上升; 25～55 min,被试者逐渐适应低照度环境,反应时间也在逐渐缩短;被试者在低照度条件下操作55 min后,反应时间随光照时间增加而大幅度增加,超过劳动时间临界值后,视觉疲劳度迅速增加,反应急速减慢,从而可能导致安全事故的发生,影响生产效率,此时应合理安排工人休息。2)从操作难度来看,在简单及正常操作难度时,试验组和对照组操作可靠度变化比较接近,表明低照度条件对一般操作的可靠度影响不明显;在极难操作难度时,低照度条件对可靠度影响明显,在井下生产过程中,低照度环境下应尽量避免安排复杂的机械化操作。3)反应时间与光照时间呈二次函数关系,通过建立回归方程量化了两者的关系,为以后合理安排煤矿工人劳动休息时间提供了理论依据。     

RBF神经网络可靠度分析方法在边坡稳定性研究中的应用

针对边坡稳定性可靠度分析,当状态函数无法显式表达且传统计算方法求解复杂问题困难时,提出一种基于ABAQUS和粒子群优化径向基函数神经网络的可靠度分析方法。基于ABAQUS的强度折减方法计算所选随机变量对应的安全系数,利用径向基函数神经网络的数据拟合功能,建立模型并映射出安全系数和随机变量之间的关系,构造响应面功能函数;利用蒙特卡罗生成的大量随机样本代入功能函数得到相应的安全系数,进而计算边坡的失稳概率和可靠度指标来反映边坡稳定性。研究结果表明:相对于传统方法,本文方法计算效率更高、误差更小,适合实际工程应用。     

A Reliability and Risk Analysis System for Multipurpose Reservoir Operation

This paper proposes a reliability analysis system, which can be widely applied to the cases in which a reservoir is operated to meet several purposes such as flood control, energy generation, irrigation, domestic and industrial water supply, etc. The presented system has a structure of three levels.1. Decision-making.2. Tradeoff analysis.3. The third level that mainly consists of three subsystems:i – The reservoir flood risk analysis subsystem by flood control simulation.ii – The benefit promotion subsystem of reservoir operation using Stochastic Dynamic Programming. In this subsystem, the Lagrange multipliers are introduced into the objective function to take into account the water supply failures. This method guarantees that each run of the SDP will necessarily derive a non-inferior policy for reservoir operation.iii – The reservoir operation simulation subsystem to derive the performance indices associated with the reservoir operation policies. With the input and feedback between the second level and the subsystems of the third level, a great deal of efficient operation policies and the associated performance indices can be obtained. Then the tradeoff relationships between different performance indices can be derived for the decision makers. With application to Yudong Reservoir in Yunnan province of China, the presented analysis system is practically tested.     

Polyvinyl chloride used as a chlorinating and a reducing agent

Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) or vinyl is a recyclable material. It can be used as a chlorinating and a reducing agent. Two tests of chlorination and reduction of two different samples of jarosite and hematite were realized using PVC, results are presented in this paper. The chlorination test shows that the HCl gas produced from PVC and heated at ≈250°C can be used as a chlorine source to recover as chlorinated compounds the valuable metals such as Zn, Pb contained in jarosite. The XRD reveals the presence of lead and zinc chlorides in the condensates obtained. The second test of reduction was conducted using a mixture of PVC and hematite treated in a nitrogen atmosphere between 200 and 1000°C. The results show that at low temperature, PVC produces HCl and with kinetic consideration, no reactions can be observed with hematite. However, at high temperature, the weight of the hematite sample decreases by ≈15%, due to the reduction of hematite to iron metal.