水资源管理模式发展趋势探析

随着工业进步和社会发展,水污染亦日趋严重,已对人类的生存安全构成重大威胁,成为人类健康、经济和社会可持续发展的重大障碍。水安全与水资源管理是全球战略问题,如何进行水资源管理和研究也是当今社会面临的难题。本文就水资源管理模式发展趋势进行阐述。     

Cross-country electricity trade,renewable energy and European transmission infrastructure policy

This paper develops a multi-country multi-sector general equilibrium model, integrating high-frequency electricity dispatch and trade decisions, to study the effects of electricity transmission infrastructure (TI) expansion and renewable energy (RE) penetration in Europe for gains from trade and carbon dioxide emissions in the power sector. TI can benefit or degrade environmental outcomes, depending on RE penetration: it complements emissions abatement by mitigating dispatch problems associated with volatile and spatially dispersed RE but also promotes higher average generation from low-cost coal if RE production is too low. Against the backdrop of European decarbonization and planned TI expansion, we find that emissions increase for current and targeted year-2020 levels of RE production and decrease for year-2030 targets. Enhanced TI yields sizeable gains from trade that depend positively on RE penetration, without creating large adverse impacts on regional equity.     

基于灰色支持向量机组合模型的我国火电NOx排放量预测

区域火电NO_x排放量的预测属于小样本、贫信息的灰色系统. 由于NO_x排放量受多个因素的叠加性影响,单一预测模型难以准确反映NO_x排放量的复杂变化,易产生较大的预测误差. 基于此,利用灰色预测理论和支持向量机预测理论,建立了火电NO_x排放量组合优化预测模型. 采用国家权威部门发布的火电NO_x排放量数据,综合考虑影响我国火电NO_x排放量的主要因素,对我国2008—2010年以及2020年的火电NO_x排放量进行了预测,预测结果与官方公布的实际值基本一致; 同时,预测的时间大大缩短.      

佛山市中心城区机动车限行对污染物削减效果的分析

为改善2010年亚运会期间空气质量,佛山市对中心城区内部分道路进行试限行.采用欧洲COPERT模式,计算出不同排放标准、不同车速、不同车型下的机动车排放因子,通过交通流调查,获取限行前后典型道路交通流运行状态,并以此为依据评估限行后区内机动车污染减排效果.结果表明,限行期间,主要路段道路交通流量平均下降32.5%,车型比例变化较大,摩托车流量下降显著.各种污染物降幅比例并不一致.按照此流量降幅可以预计,如在区内全面展开机动车限行,单位路段污染物(CO、NOx、VOC、PM)年排放量分别下降48.1%、39.2%、43.6%、49.2%.     

氮氧化物(NOx)废气治理工程实例

针对氮氧化物(NOx)废气瞬时爆发性浓度极高、气量大,难于治理的危害特性,设计了一套适合敞开作业的通风净化系统装置。该工程既解决了原有NOx废气处理工艺的难题,提高NOx废气处理技术,又解决了"黄龙"对大气的污染,达到保护环境与社会和谐的统一。     

南四湖及入出湖河流水环境质量变化趋势分析

南四湖作为南水北调东线工程重要的输水通道和调蓄湖泊,其水质状况一直受到人们的广泛关注. 根据南四湖流域主要入出湖河流14个监控断面及湖内5个监测站点的数据,从年际、年内、不同时间段和不同监测站点等进行了南四湖及河流水质变化趋势的综合分析. 结果表明,2007与2000年相比,南四湖入出湖河流监控断面的ρ（COD_Cr）总体下降率达到84.2%,ρ（NH₃-N）总体下降率达到79.7%. 南四湖及河流水质总体上出现了大幅度的改善,但距离稳定达到调水水质Ⅲ类标准的要求还有较大差距. 受水文情势、底泥释放和污染源以及各项污染控制措施等因素的影响,南四湖及入出湖河流监控断面水质改善存在一定的波动现象,水体富营养化形势严峻. 提出了科学合理地计算与分配南四湖养殖承载力和流域水环境承载力,重视非点源的控制与治理,大力推进“退耕还湿、退渔还湖”策略,是当务之急.      

我国主要工业部门技术节能减排的潜力及实现途径探讨

论文在分析我国21世纪以来能源消费格局,尤其是高能耗产业能源消费的同时,比较各主要高耗能产业、 单位产品能耗与国际先进水平能耗的差距,针对高耗能产业的差距和主要问题,探讨了我国主要高耗能产业的技术节能减排潜力,以及通过高耗能产业的技术节能减排,在2020年全国实现单位GDP的CO₂排放降低40%~45%总目标中工业技术节能减排的贡献率和贡献规模。预计到2020年,通过煤电、 钢铁、 有色金属、 建材、 石化、 化工、 煤炭采选、 油气采选等主要高耗能产业的技术进步,所能实现的工业技术节能潜力为51 560×10⁴~52 000×10⁴ tec,相应减少CO₂的减排总规模为125 800×10⁴~126 880×10⁴ t,在整个单位GDP节能减排至2020年降低40%~45%的目标中,工业技术节能减排的贡献率大约占15.5%~16.5%,将不能承担起实现目标的主要责任。此外,针对我国工业技术节能减排的潜力进一步扩大,就未来主要的工业技术节能减排路径进行了讨论。     

三江平原泥炭沼泽湿地N2O排放通量及影响因子

运用静态暗箱-气相色谱法观测了三江平原毛苔草泥炭沼泽湿地植物生长季N2O排放通量,并分析了其关键影响因子.结果表明:生长季N2O排放通量季节变化动态明显,最大值出现在7月上旬;平均排放通量为76.77μg/(m2·h),高于潜育沼泽湿地[20~60μg/(m2·h), 2002~2005].N2O排放通量与土壤温度存在极显著指数关系(P<0.01),且随土壤深度(土壤10cm以下)的增加相关关系逐渐减弱;与水位呈极显著负相关关系(P<0.01);另外,植被是影响N2O排放的主要生物因子,有植被参与的N2O排放是无植被的1.7倍.总之,水位和土壤温度是控制泥炭沼泽N2O排放呈明显季节变化的主要因素,而土壤水文物理特性的差异是引起泥炭沼泽N2O排放高于潜育沼泽的主要原因.经初步估算,三江平原泥炭沼泽每年植物生长季N2O排放总量约为72.9Mg,表明泥炭沼泽湿地在生长季是重要的N2O潜在排放源.     

Strategic climate policy with offsets and incomplete abatement: Carbon taxes versus cap-and-trade

This paper provides a first analysis of a “policy bloc” of fossil fuel importers which implements an optimal climate policy, faces a (non-policy) fringe of other fuel importers, and an exporter bloc, and purchases offset from the fringe. We compare a carbon tax and a cap-and-trade scheme for the policy bloc, in either case accompanied by an efficient offset mechanism for reducing emissions in the fringe. The policy bloc is shown to prefer a tax over a cap, since only a tax reduces the fuel export price and by more when the policy bloc is larger. Offsets are also more favorable to the policy bloc under a tax than under a cap. The optimal offset price under a carbon tax is below the tax rate, while under a cap and free quota trading the offset price must equal the quota price. The domestic carbon and offset prices are both higher under a tax than under a cap when the policy bloc is small. When the policy bloc is larger, the offset price can be higher under a cap. Fringe countries gain by mitigation in the policy bloc, more under a carbon tax since the fuel import price is lower.     

Nitro polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in atmospheric particulate matter of Athens,Greece

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and nitro polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (N-PAHs) are chemical species of proven mutant and carcinogenic activity. In this study, the concentrations of seven different N-PAHs [2-nitronaphthalene (2N-NAP), 2-nitroflourene (2N-FLU), 2-nitroflouranthene (2N-FLA), 3-nitroflouranthene (3N-FLA), 1-nitropyrene (1N-PYR) and 2-nitropyrene (2N-PYR)] were determined in two fractions of atmospheric particulate matter from the atmosphere of Athens: coarse (2.4 μm?10 μm ) and fine (<2.4 μm ). 3N-FLA was not detected, whereas 1N-PYR, mostly originating from emissions from burning fuel, showed the maximum observed concentrations for both fractions and for the whole experimental period (especially during winter). In addition, 2N-FLA, a secondary nitro-PAH produced by photochemical reactions, showed relatively high values. Analysis of statistical data for N-PAH concentrations, using clustering technique, showed that: (1) 1N-NAP, 2N-FLU and 1N-PYR are mainly produced by direct burning; and (2) photochemical reactions are the dominant sources of 2N-NAP, 2N-PYR and 2N-FLA.