根据1961~2005年长江流域气象站点的实测月降水量和气温数据,采用第5期全球耦合模式比较计划CMIP5(the Fifth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project)中24个全球气候模式(GCM)的模拟结果,通过计算模拟变量和观测变量平均值的相对误差、归一化的均方根误差、时间和空间相关系数,采用M-K趋势分析方法,分别选用在长江流域模拟气温和降水较好的5个模式进行集合平均,从时间的演变规律和空间的分布特征两方面,检验该模式集合对长江流域模拟气温和降水的能力。研究结果表明:各个模式模拟气温的能力要明显好于模拟降水的能力,但模拟气温较好的模式模拟降水的能力并不一定突出;模式集合的结果表明:在时间尺度上,模式集合平均结果与观测值拟合程度较好,且模式集合的结果振荡幅度较观测值小;在空间尺度上,模式集合的空间分布趋势与观测值大致相同,说明采用的模式集合结果用于预估未来长江流域降水的时空分布特征和演变规律是可行的。 相似文献
This paper applies the Kuhn–Tucker model to estimate recreation demand of parks in Sicily. We estimate a fixed coefficient specification and a random coefficient specification to take into account heterogeneity across visitors. Estimates suggest a diversity of preferences across the population and that parks with higher level of quality attributes are more likely to be visited. We also simulate two sets of hypothetical policy scenarios to evaluate and compare the recreational value of each park and the welfare impacts of changes in a quality attribute. 相似文献
This paper examines the determinants of illegal waste dumping at the county level in Slovakia (in 77 of 79 counties), using a truncated regression model. It analyzes a unique data-set composed of illegal dumping data provided by the TrashOut platform and sociodemographic data from the national statistical authority.
This study shows that a higher level of expected overall waste production results in a higher rate of illegally dumped waste and a higher number of illegal dumping sites. More precisely, income has a positive impact on the rate of illegal waste dumping, poverty influences the rate of illegal dumping negatively and a higher level of education does not result in more responsible waste management. On the contrary, higher education has a positive influence on the rate of dumping. A negative relationship between costs of illegal waste disposal and dumping rate, as well as a positive relationship between costs of legal waste disposal and dumping rate has been revealed. 相似文献