Accounting for rate instability and spatial patterns in the boundary analysis of cancer mortality maps

Boundary analysis of cancer maps may highlight areas where causative exposures change through geographic space, the presence of local populations with distinct cancer incidences, or the impact of different cancer control methods. Too often, such analysis ignores the spatial pattern of incidence or mortality rates and overlooks the fact that rates computed from sparsely populated geographic entities can be very unreliable. This paper proposes a new methodology that accounts for the uncertainty and spatial correlation of rate data in the detection of significant edges between adjacent entities or polygons. Poisson kriging is first used to estimate the risk value and the associated standard error within each polygon, accounting for the population size and the risk semivariogram computed from raw rates. The boundary statistic is then defined as half the absolute difference between kriged risks. Its reference distribution, under the null hypothesis of no boundary, is derived through the generation of multiple realizations of the spatial distribution of cancer risk values. This paper presents three types of neutral models generated using methods of increasing complexity: the common random shuffle of estimated risk values, a spatial re-ordering of these risks, or p-field simulation that accounts for the population size within each polygon. The approach is illustrated using age-adjusted pancreatic cancer mortality rates for white females in 295 US counties of the Northeast (1970–1994). Simulation studies demonstrate that Poisson kriging yields more accurate estimates of the cancer risk and how its value changes between polygons (i.e., boundary statistic), relatively to the use of raw rates or local empirical Bayes smoother. When used in conjunction with spatial neutral models generated by p-field simulation, the boundary analysis based on Poisson kriging estimates minimizes the proportion of type I errors (i.e., edges wrongly declared significant) while the frequency of these errors is predicted well by the p-value of the statistical test.

基于GIS在城市数字规划模型的研究

针对GIS在数字城市规划中的要求,提出了GIS数字城市规划概念及其在城市数字规划中的作用.根据GIS在城市数字规划中的服务功能建立了相应的数学模型,并对城市规划中所涉及的的公众参与冲突的协调机制模型、多元韦伯模型的概念进行了介绍.在此基础上对GIS在城市数字规划管理以及城市空间规划中的应用进行讨论.并证明GIS技术在数字城市规划中能起到重要的作用.参5.     

Cost-Effective Suppression and Eradication of Invasive Predators

Abstract: Introduced predators can have pronounced effects on naïve prey species; thus, predator control is often essential for conservation of threatened native species. Complete eradication of the predator, although desirable, may be elusive in budget‐limited situations, whereas predator suppression is more feasible and may still achieve conservation goals. We used a stochastic predator–prey model based on a Lotka‐Volterra system to investigate the cost‐effectiveness of predator control to achieve prey conservation. We compared five control strategies: immediate eradication, removal of a constant number of predators (fixed‐number control), removal of a constant proportion of predators (fixed‐rate control), removal of predators that exceed a predetermined threshold (upper‐trigger harvest), and removal of predators whenever their population falls below a lower predetermined threshold (lower‐trigger harvest). We looked at the performance of these strategies when managers could always remove the full number of predators targeted by each strategy, subject to budget availability. Under this assumption immediate eradication reduced the threat to the prey population the most. We then examined the effect of reduced management success in meeting removal targets, assuming removal is more difficult at low predator densities. In this case there was a pronounced reduction in performance of the immediate eradication, fixed‐number, and lower‐trigger strategies. Although immediate eradication still yielded the highest expected minimum prey population size, upper‐trigger harvest yielded the lowest probability of prey extinction and the greatest return on investment (as measured by improvement in expected minimum population size per amount spent). Upper‐trigger harvest was relatively successful because it operated when predator density was highest, which is when predator removal targets can be more easily met and the effect of predators on the prey is most damaging. This suggests that controlling predators only when they are most abundant is the “best” strategy when financial resources are limited and eradication is unlikely.     

Is a voluntary approach an effective environmental policy instrument?: A case for environmental management systems

Using Japanese facility-level data from an OECD survey, we estimate the effects of implementation of ISO14001 and publication of environmental reports on the facilities’ environmental performance. While most previous studies focused on an index of emissions toxicity, this study examines three areas of impacts, none of which have been explored in the literature: natural resource use, solid waste generation, and wastewater effluent. The study is also unique in that the effectiveness of ISO14001 is considered in relation to environmental regulations. Our findings are summarized as follows. First, both ISO14001 and report publication help reduce all three impacts; the former appears more effective in all areas except wastewater. Second, environmental regulations do not weaken the effect of ISO14001. Third, assistance programs offered by local governments—a voluntary approach—promote facilities’ adoption of ISO14001. These findings suggest that governments can use command-and-control and voluntary approaches concurrently.     

树舌灵芝多糖对肝纤维化大鼠的肝功能的影响

观察树舌灵芝多糖对肝纤维化大鼠的肝功能的影响．采用经典的四氯化碳肝纤维化模型,造模同时给予树舌灵芝多糖干预,4周后采血测血清AST、ALB、A／G、HDL,实验中观察大鼠的一般状况．树舌灵芝多糖能显著降低四氯化碳肝纤维化大鼠血清ALIT、Mb、A／G水平．在肝纤维化的病理进程中,采取树舌灵芝多糖进行干预,可改善大鼠肝功能．表3,参5．     

包装行业中的变频器矢量控制技术

为了更好地解决包装行业中电力拖动设备的机械性能和调速问题,选用了矢量控制型变频器．介绍了变频器矢量控制的基本原理,并且建立了异步电动机在不同坐标系下的数学模型．最后采用磁场定向控制方法,导出了异步电动机的矢量控制数学模型,方便了变频器矢量控制的实现．图1,参4．     

均质滤料过滤截污模型研究

对均质滤料过滤进行了分析，采用毛细管模型研究过滤水流，给出毛细管中剪切应力的分布，通过毛细管中颗粒物的受力分析，求得颗粒与毛细管壁间的物理化学作用力。对颗粒在毛细管在毛细管中运动的受力平衡进行分析简化，得到了截污饮和时滤床中孔隙率的计算公式，由此可以计算出均质滤床的最大截污能力，即：清洁滤床的孔隙率与孢和孔隙率之差乘以滤床的体积。     

成都颗粒物吸湿增长特征及订正方法研究

利用2013年6月—2014年5月成都市人民南路四段逐时PM_(2.5)质量浓度、大气能见度监测资料及同期温江站相对湿度观测数据,分析了该区域相对湿度对大气消光系数的影响,探讨了消光系数湿度订正方法的原理和技术流程.结果表明:针对细颗粒物而言,平均单位质量“湿”消光系数在相对湿度为40%时存在突变(通过了α=0.05的信度检验),当相对湿度小于40%时,平均单位质量“湿”消光系数呈现平稳波动的特征;而当相对湿度介于40%~90%时,平均单位质量“湿”消光系数增长趋势明显;现有的湿度订正方法未能在成都地区起到相应的订正效果;单位质量“湿”消光系数直观上表现为非平稳随机序列,基于单位质量“湿”消光系数和单位质量“干”消光系数在统计意义下应具有一致性的原则,从不确定性分析的角度提出了消光系数湿度订正的新方法,取得了令人满意的结果.     

河流营养物参照状态的建立方法研究进展

建立营养物参照状态是河流水污染控制的关键问题之一。系统论述了参照状态的各种内涵,重点分析了国外建立河流营养物参照状态的各种方法及优缺点,并分析了其在中国的适用性。最后,提出了河流营养物参照状态的进一步研究的重点。参照状态根据允许人类活动影响的程度可有多种含义:最小干扰状态、历史状态、最少干扰状态和最佳可达成状态。其中,最少干扰状态和最佳可达成状态在现实管理中具有一定程度的可操作性。参照河流百分比法是建立营养物参照状态的首选方法,但中国水环境污染形势严峻,参照点变得越来越少。当参照点不存在时,一般河流百分比法是参照河流百分比法的替代方法,然而一般河流百分比法和参照河流百分比法的匹配性关系并不完全保持一致。由于栖息地退化等因素对生物完整性的影响程度可能比营养物浓度更大,生物响应法在实际应用中是非常困难的。流域模型法虽然有众多优点,但是数据要求较高,并且常用流域模型的机理与中国有较大差距,在中国应用的结果具有较大的不确定性。综合考虑中国水环境污染现状和数据要求,以多元线性回归模型为代表的简易模型方法在中国应有最大的适用性。然而,环境因素与营养物质间的关系往往都是非线性的,今后应着重研究建立河流营养物参照状态的多元非线性回归模型方法。此外,还应加强季风河流营养物参照状态的季节性差异与年际差异研究,并在全国层面上根据自然因素划分适当规模的生态区,分区确定各生态区的河流营养物参照状态。     

垃圾填埋场室内模拟试验注水量确定方法及其应用

针对填埋场室内模拟试验往往忽略降雨径流和初损的问题,提出运用SCS模型确定室内模拟试验日注水量的方法,并将计算结果应用于成都长安填埋场室内模拟试验中.结果表明,采用SCS模型计算所得的日入渗量进行注水的模拟柱渗滤液产量和水质变化能够更准确的模拟填埋场实际情况.