ECONOMIC RESOURCE MULTIPLIERS FOR REGIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: Tradeoffs between regional economic development and resource use is a question often confronting local decisionmakers. A resource-interindustry model can be used to depict the interrelationships between regional economic sectors as to household income and/or employment and resource use. A resource-interindustry model was developed for Humboldt and Lander Counties in Nevada which shows the tradeoffs between regional household income (wages, salaries, profits, and rents) and/or employment and water usage. Water income and water employment multipliers can be ranked, enabling decisionmakers to realize sectors which require greatest regional water usage to regional household income and/or employment.     

Modeling channel management impacts on river migration: a case study of Woodson bridge state recreation area,Sacramento river,California, USA

Understanding how hydraulic factors control alluvial river meander migration can help resource managers evaluate the long-term effects of floodplain management and bank stabilization measures. Using a numerical model based on the mechanics of flow and sediment transport in curved river channels, we predict 50 years of channel migration and suggest the planning and ecological implications of that migration for a 6.4-km reach (river miles 218–222) of the Sacramento River near the Woodson Bridge State Recreation Area, California, USA. Using four different channel management scenarios, our channel migration simulations suggest that: (1) channel stabilization alters the future channel planform locally and downstream from the stabilization; (2) rock revetment currently on the bank upstream from the Woodson Bridge recreation area causes more erosion of the channel bank at the recreation area than if the revetment were not present; (3) relocating the channel to the west and allowing subsequent unconstrained river migration relieves the erosion pressure in the Woodson Bridge area; (4) the subsequent migration reworks (erodes along one river bank and replaces new floodplain along the other) 26.5 ha of land; and (5) the river will rework between 8.5 and 48.5 ha of land in the study reach (over the course of 50 years), depending on the bank stabilization plan used. The reworking of floodplain lands is an important riparian ecosystem function that maintains habitat heterogeneity, an essential factor for the long-term survival of several threatened and endangered animal species in the Sacramento River area.     

Developing of a pricing model for Turkish lignite used in thermal plants

The objective of this paper is to develop a general pricing model for Turkish Lignite, which is mainly sold to thermal plants. This model will contribute to the development of coal mining within the scope of privatization efforts of the Turkish energy market. The paper consists of two stages. First, data of 10 thermal plants have been evaluated by using hedonic pricing analysis to determine influential price parameters. The results of hedonic regression analysis indicate the effect and importance of calorific value and electricity price on lignite prices. Second, a general coal-pricing model has been developed by taking into account the results of hedonic analysis. Comparison of the coal prices estimated by the developed pricing model and the coal prices obtained from thermal plants indicates an acceptable relation.     

ASSESSING FLOOD MITIGATION ALTERNATIVES IN SHIJR AREA IN METROPOLITAN TAIPEI1

The Keelung River Basin in northern Taiwan lies immediately upstream of the Taipei metropolitan area. The Shijr area is in the lower basin and is subject to frequent flooding. This work applies micromanagement and source control, including widely distributed infiltration and detention/ retention runoff retarding measures, in the Wudu watershed above Shijr. A method is also developed that combines a genetic algorithm and a rainfall runoff model to optimize the spatial distribution of runoff retarding facilities. Downstream of Wudu in the Shijr area, five dredging schemes are considered. If 10‐year flood flows cannot be confined in the channel, then a levee embankment that corresponds to the respective runoff retarding scheme will be required. The minimum total cost is considered in the rule to select from the regional flood mitigation alternatives. The results of this study reveal that runoff retarding facilities installed in the upper and middle parts of the watershed are most effective in reducing the flood peak. Moreover, as the cost of acquiring land for the levee embankment increases, installing runoff retarding measures in the upper portion of the watershed becomes more economical.     

APPLICATION OF GREY MODEL AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS TO FLOOD FORECASTING1

The main focus of this study was to compare the Grey model and several artificial neural network (ANN) models for real time flood forecasting, including a comparison of the models for various lead times (ranging from one to six hours). For hydrological applications, the Grey model has the advantage that it can easily be used in forecasting without assuming that forecast storm events exhibit the same stochastic characteristics as the storm events themselves. The major advantage of an ANN in rainfall‐runoff modeling is that there is no requirement for any prior assumptions regarding the processes involved. The Grey model and three ANN models were applied to a 2,509 km² watershed in the Republic of Korea to compare the results for real time flood forecasting with from one to six hours of lead time. The fifth‐order Grey model and the ANN models with the optimal network architectures, represented by ANN1004 (34 input nodes, 21 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), ANN1010 (40 input nodes, 25 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), and ANN1004T (14 input nodes, 21 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), were adopted to evaluate the effects of time lags and differences between area mean and point rainfall. The Grey model and the ANN models, which provided reliable forecasts with one to six hours of lead time, were calibrated and their datasets validated. The results showed that the Grey model and the ANN1010 model achieved the highest level of performance in forecasting runoff for one to six lead hours. The ANN model architectures (ANN1004 and ANN1010) that used point rainfall data performed better than the model that used mean rainfall data (ANN1004T) in the real time forecasting. The selected models thus appear to be a useful tool for flood forecasting in Korea.     

烟气扩散的CFD数值模拟

运用商业CFD软件Fluent模拟计算小尺寸下的简单烟气扩散规律.将结果用正态分布假设下的高斯烟羽模型验证.证明该软件模拟烟气扩散问题的可行性.     

国内外大城市防灾减灾管理模式的比较研究

城市综合防灾减灾管理是城市管理的一个重要组成部分。上海综合减灾体系目前尚不够完善，城市抗灾能力仍较薄弱。本文通过对国外大城市减灾管理模式的比较和研究，分析了目前上海市减灾管理模式的现状和问题，提出了改进目前上海市灾害管理模式的措施建议。     

江苏省城市防汛决策支持系统研究

在分析江苏省城市防汛问题的基础上，设计了其防汛决策支持系统；根据江苏省城市洪涝灾情特点研建和选用了适宜的数学模型，该模型可以迅速、可靠和正确地模拟城市雨情、水情、灾情的发展过程和可能后果，为城市防汛决策提供多层次的信息服务和多种支持手段。     

天津市城区暴雨沥涝仿真模拟系统的研究

天津市位于黄河水系尾闾，是我国北方重要的工业和港口城市。该市历史上一直遭受洪涝灾害的威胁，加之近几年市区范围不断扩大，不透水面积增加，排水能力远远不能适应城市的发展要求，城市沥涝问题日趋严重。为了掌握天津市暴雨沥涝的规律，减轻洪涝灾害对该市的影响，作者利用二维不恒定流水动力学模型和计算机信息管理及图形技术，采用Power Station Fortran 4.0和Visual Basic5.0编程语言，在Widows98环境下开发了天津市暴雨沥涝仿真模拟系统。该系统首次实现了从城市暴雨预报、监测到城市暴雨沥涝仿真模拟的研究， 不仅能够处理实时的不均匀的降雨信息，还能处理数值预报模型的预报降雨信息。系统的信息前后处理模块用图形方式管理仿真模型的各类信息，方便用户显示、查询和修改，使系统更加完整、实用。