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121.
采用碱片-离子色谱法测定空气的硫酸盐化速率,方法在硫酸盐质量浓度为1.00~20.0 mg/L范围内线性良好(r≥0.999 0);碱片剪碎或不剪碎对空白碱片中硫酸根离子质量浓度的测定无明显影响,且高低两种加标浓度的回收率均在80.0%~120%之间;对于碱片实际样品,碱片剪碎更有利于硫酸根离子的快速溶出;随浸泡时间的延长,碱片中溶出的硫酸根离子质量浓度呈上升趋势,7 h硫酸根离子基本溶出完全,从保证结果质量和节省时间的角度考虑,确定最佳浸泡时间为3.5 h,建议碱片全部采取剪碎处理。 相似文献
122.
精细化工固定源废气采样时机的选择探讨 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
以某医药企业某产品生产过程为实例,综合各工段生产步骤、时间、废气产生情况及估算的污染物浓度等因素,绘制各污染因子排放规律图,从而确定各污染因子排放浓度(排放量)最大的1 h为最佳采样时机。 相似文献
123.
为研究出口单位流量与人流时间之间的关系,以某体育馆为例,进行对某一出口常态下的人流观测实验.通过理论计算和建立Cubic回归模型对采集数据进行了统计分析.发现:单位出口流量最大值为2人/(m·s),稳定值为0.8-1.2人/(m·s),最小值为0.2人/(m·s).出口单位流量是人流时间的三次函数.研究结果表明:出口单位流量是随着时间的变化而变化,不是一个定值,而且单位出口流量稳定值分布在初期.本文对性能化防火设计有一定的参考价值. 相似文献
124.
ABSTRACT: The probability distributions of annual peak flows used in flood risk analysis quantify the risk that a design flood will be exceeded. But the parameters of these distributions are themselves to a degree uncertain and this uncertainty increases the risk that the flood protection provided will in fact prove to be inadequate. The increase in flood risk due to parameter uncertainty is small when a fairly long record of data is available and the annual flood peaks are serially independent, which is the standard assumption in flood frequency analysis. But standard tests for serial independence are insensitive to the type of grouping of high and low values in a time series, which is measured by the Hurst coefficient. This grouping increases the parameter uncertainty considerably. A study of 49 annual peak flow series for Canadian rivers shows that many have a high Hurst coefficient. The corresponding increase in flood risk due to parameter uncertainty is shown to be substantial even for rivers with a long record, and therefore should not be neglected. The paper presents a method of rationally combining parameter uncertainty due to serial correlation, and the stochastic variability of peak flows in a single risk assessment. In addition, a relatively simple time series model that is capable of reproducing the observed serial correlation of flood peaks is presented. 相似文献
125.
S. W. Hostetler 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1991,27(4):637-647
ABSTRACT: Steamboat Creek basin is an important source of timber and provides crucial spawning and rearing habitat for anadromous steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss). Because stream temperatures are near the upper limit of tolerance for the survival of juvenile steelhead, the possible long-term effect of clear-cut logging on stream temperatures was assessed. Twenty-year (1969–1989) records of summer stream temperature and flow from four tributaries and two reaches of Steamboat Creek and Boulder Creek (a nearby unlogged watershed) were analyzed. Logging records for the Steamboat Creek basin and air temperature records also were used in the analysis. A time-series model of the components of stream temperature (seasonal cycle of solar radiation, air temperature, streamflow, an autoregressive term of order 1, and a linear trend variable) was fitted to the water-temperature data. The linear trend variable was significant in all the fitted models except Bend Creek (a tributary fed by cool ground-water discharge) and Boulder Creek. Because no trends in either climate (i.e., air temperature) or streamflow were found in the data, the trend variable was associated with the pre-1969 loss and subsequent regrowth of riparian vegetation and shading canopies. 相似文献
126.
本文根据灰色关联分析的基本性质,提出一种环境质量综合评价的新方法。该方法用待评价样本各指标值组成参考数列,环境质量分级标准值组成被比较数列,通过计算参考数列与被比较数列的关联度,按最优关联识别原则综合评价环境质量等级。用4个实例与其它方法进行了对比,取得满意的效果。 相似文献
127.
MFAM模型在河流水质污染模拟及预测中的应用 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
文中以时间序列分析为基础,介绍了均值生成函数这一崭新概念,并且经成份因子提取分析推导建立了模拟序列的数字模型(简记为MFAM),经对黄河下游花园口断面的1988-1989年实测水质污染指标溶解氧(DO),氨氧,化学耗氧量(COD),五日生化需氧量(BOD5)等序列模拟,结果表明MFAM模型能较好地模拟河流水质污染指标的变化趋势,拟合平均误差只有5.2-6.4%,MFAM模型应用于预测1990-1991年水质污染指标变化,结果表明预测精度达85%以上,文中最后得出结论:MFAM模型应用于河流污染模拟和预测,是完全可行且十分方便。 相似文献
128.
BAYESIAN MODELS OF FORECASTED TIME SERIES1 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Roman Krzysztofowicz 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1985,21(5):805-814
Bayesian Processor of Forecasts (BPF) combines a prior distribution, which describes the natural uncertainty about the realization of a hydrologic process, with a likelihood function, which describes the uncertainty in categorical forecasts of that process, and outputs a posterior distribution of the process, conditional upon the forecasts. The posterior distribution provides a means of incorporating uncertain forecasts into optimal decision models. We present fundamentals of building BPF for time series. They include a general formulation, stochastic independence assumptions and their interpretation, computationally tractable models for forecasts of an independent process and a first-order Markov process, and parametric representations for normal-linear processes. An example is shown of an application to the annual time series of seasonal snowmelt runoff volume forecasts. 相似文献
129.
J. R. M. Hosking 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1985,21(4):677-682
ABSTRACT: Fractional differencing is a tool for modeling time series which have long-term dependence; i.e., series in which the correlation between distant observations, though small, is not negligible. Fractionally differenced ARIMA models are formed by permitting the differencing parameter d in the familiar Box-Jenkins ARIMA(p, d, q) models to take nonintegral values; they permit the simultaneous modeling of the long-term and short-term behavior of an observed time series. This paper discusses the usefulness of fractional differencing to time-series modeling, with emphasis on hydrologic applications. A methodology for fitting fractionally differenced ARIMA models is described, and examples are presented. 相似文献
130.
Sheryl L. Franklin David R. Maidment 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1986,22(4):611-621
ABSTRACT: A cascade model for forecasting municipal water use one week or one month ahead, conditioned on rainfall estimates, is presented and evaluated. The model comprises four components: long term trend, seasonal cycle, autocorrelation and correlation with rainfall. The increased forecast accuracy obtained by the addition of each component is evaluated. The City of Deerfield Beach, Florida, is used as the application example with the calibration period from 1976–1980 and the forecast period the drought year of 1981. Forecast accuracy is measured by the average absolute relative error (AARE, the average absolute value of the difference between actual and forecasted use, divided by the actual use). A benchmark forecast is calculated by assuming that water use for a given week or month in 1981 is the same as the average for the corresponding period from 1976 to 1980. This method produces an AARE of 14.6 percent for one step ahead forecasts of monthly data and 15.8 percent for weekly data. A cascade model using trend, seasonality and autocorrelation produces forecasts with AARE of about 12 percent for both monthly and weekly data while adding a linear relationship of water use and rainfall reduces the AARE to 8 percent in both cases if it is assumed that rainfall is known during the forecast period. Simple rainfall predictions do not increase the forecast accuracy for water use so the major utility of relating water use and rainfall lies in forecasting various possible water use sequences conditioned on sequences of historical rainfall data. 相似文献