Designing environmental monitoring networks to measure extremes

This paper discusses challenges arising in the design of networks for monitoring extreme values over the domain of a random environmental space-time field {X _ij } i = 1, . . . , I denoting site and j = 1, . . . denoting time (e.g. hour). The field of extremes for time span r over site domain i = 1, . . . ,I is given by \(\{Y_{i(r+1)}=\max_{j=k}^{k+n-1} X_{ij}\}\) for k = 1 + rn, r = 0, . . . ,. Such networks must not only measure extremes at the monitored sites but also enable their prediction at the non-monitored ones. Designing such a network poses special challenges that do not seem to have been generally recognized. One of these problems is the loss of spatial dependence between site responses in going from the environmental process to the field of extremes it generates. In particular we show empirically that the intersite covariance Cov(Y _i(r+1),Y _i′(r+1)) can generally decline toward zero as r increases, for site pairs i ≠ i′. Thus the measured extreme values may not predict the unmeasured ones very precisely. Consequently high levels of pollution exposure of a sensitive group (e.g. school children) located between monitored sites may be overlooked. This potential deficiency raises concerns about the adequacy of air pollution monitoring networks whose primary role is the detection of noncompliance with air quality standards based on extremes designed to protect human health. The need to monitor for noncompliance and thereby protect human health, points to other issues. How well do networks designed to monitor the field monitor their fields of extremes? What criterion should be used to select prospective monitoring sites when setting up or adding to a network? As the paper demonstrates by assessing an existing network, the answer to the first question is not well, at least in the case considered. To the second, the paper suggests a variety of plausible answers but shows through a simulation study, that they can lead to different optimum designs. The paper offers an approach that circumvents the dilemma posed by the answer to the second question. That approach models the field of extremes (suitably transformed) by a multivariate Gaussian-Inverse Wishart hierarchical Bayesian distribution. The adequacy of this model is empirically assessed in an application by finding the relative coverage frequency of the predictive credibility ellipsoid implied by its posterior distribution. The favorable results obtained suggest this posterior adequately describes that (transformed) field. Hence it can form the basis for designing an appropriate network. Its use is demonstrated by a hypothetical extension of an existing monitoring network. That foundation in turn enables a network to be designed of sufficient density (relative to cost) to serve its regulatory purpose.     

COD与回流时间的相关性研究及测定方法改进

通过以大量的数据分析了回流时间对化学耗氧量测定的影响,得出40min时水样的氧化率在97.7%~99.6%,平均为99%,可将回流时间改为40min测定COD,然后将所得结果通过系统校正,与标准法相比较,经统计检验,精密度、准确度等均符合要求,可用于批量较大、水质成份稳定的监测。     

采用正交实验优化湿热法处理厨余垃圾的工艺条件

实验采用3因素3水平的正交实验设计方法,研究了湿热法处理厨余垃圾并使其饲料化的加工工艺中,时间、温度、加水量对厨余垃圾饲用价值的影响,选取粗蛋白、粗脂肪、粗纤维、粗灰分、钙和盐分为评价指标,确定反应的最佳工艺条件。实验结果表明,反应的最佳工艺条件为温度100℃、加水量50%、反应时间30 m in。     

Suppression of gas explosion using vacuum chamber at different break-up times of diaphragm

Vacuum chamber is a new method to suppress the gas explosion. The explosion propagation characteristics have been studied in an L-shaped channel (tubes joined a right angle) with a vacuum chamber in the region of joining of the tubes. The vacuum chamber separated from the inner tubular space with the help of a diaphragm pierced by firing pin. The results demonstrate that the effect of explosion suppression of vacuum chamber is related to the break-up time of diaphragm and the position of the explosive flame front. When the diaphragm breaks up, the shorter the distance of flame front propagation is, the closer the flame front gets to the vacuum chamber, and the better effect of explosion suppression is, conversely, the worse the effect of explosion suppression is.     

Safe storage of selected fuels with regard to their tendency to spontaneous combustion

European standard EN 15188 is dedicated to the assessment of the tendency of solid flammable substances to spontaneous combustion. Fossil fuels and biofuels that substitute them are a frequent reason of fires caused by spontaneous combustion. Even though having different properties, both types of fuels can be assessed according to this standard by the method of the determination of the dependency of self-ignition temperature against the ratio of volume to surface area of geometrically exactly defined solid body, or based on the theory of thermal explosion according to Frank-Kamenetskii. The comparison of calculated values confirmed the agreement of both methods results, and the tendency of fuels to spontaneous combustion can be assessed by them.     

A meta-ethnography to synthesise household cultural research for climate change response

Cultural change is critical to climate change responses, but the in-depth qualitative research that investigates culture is necessarily conducted at scales difficult to integrate with policy. A focus of climate change mitigation and adaptation is affluent developed world households. Adapting methods used elsewhere in social science, we report and assess a meta-ethnography of household sustainability research, scaling up findings from 12 studies encompassing 276 Australian households. Seven themes are dominant: family concerns are central to household practice; adaptiveness is contingent but more pervasive than often assumed; households make sense of climate change not through abstract arguments, but through physical resources and materials; boundaries of the home space are dynamic and subjective; daily time is an important currency; paradoxes abound among everyday practice; and privacy and a sense of autonomy are prioritised. Insights from the method include new light on familiar themes when seen through an environmental lens, thickening and triangulation of existing research, and a stronger basis for international comparisons. Some findings have straightforward application to policy, others identify potential areas of risk and resistance, others still are more conceptual. We conclude the method has considerable potential and is worth developing further, providing a critical perspective is maintained.     

ABR-MBR工艺处理生活污水实现短程硝化

采用ABR-MBR耦合工艺对MBR反应器中实现短程硝化的运行控制条件进行了研究,并为后续研究系统的反硝化除磷性能打下基础.ABR-MBR耦合工艺在不同条件下的运行研究结果表明,在ABR反应器的水力停留时间(hydraulic retention time,HRT)6 h,污泥回流比100%,硝化液回流比300%,温度30℃±2℃的条件下,通过控制好氧区溶解氧浓度(DO从0.5~1.0 mg·L~(-1)降为0.3~0.7 mg·L~(-1))以及改变MBR反应器有效容积以控制其HRT,最终在MBR反应器HRT从3 h逐步延长至5 h时短程硝化遭到破坏,亚硝酸盐积累率(nitrite accumulation rate,NAR)从60%急剧下降至15%.短程硝化影响因素的分析表明:pH值、游离氨(free ammonia,FA)和游离亚硝酸(free nitrous acid,FNA)对本试验实现短程硝化无显著影响,维持低DO浓度(0.3~0.7 mg·L~(-1))并逐步缩短HRT是本试验实现短程硝化的关键控制因素,温度和污泥停留时间(sludge retention time,SRT)可作为辅助因素与之共同调控.短程硝化期间,系统获得了高效且稳定的COD和NH_4~+-N去除效果,平均出水浓度分别低于50 mg·L~(-1)和2 mg·L~(-1),去除率均在90%以上,TN平均去除率高达72%.     

中国艾比湖湿地识别及其时空动态变化

在资料稀缺的背景下,遥感数据是提供湿地系统长时间序列的理想方案。然而面向“一带一路”沿线地区复杂下垫面,国家级湿地缺乏系统的长时序梳理。利用Landsat系列数据,基于随机森林分类模型,研究近30年中国典型尾闾湖湿地的时空分布模式、空间转换规律和景观连通性。结果表明：随机森林算法在艾比湖湿地分类应用中取得较高精度（Kappa系数大于0.9）。1991—2017年艾比湖湿地总面积增加425.06 km²,河流增加47.97 km²,湖泊增加233.95 km²,人工湿地增加48.74 km²,盐沼增加109.41 km²,沼泽减少15.01 km²。艾比湖湿地年内时空变化显著,年内季节间盐沼转化率最大,湖泊年内逐渐缩小,主要转化为沼泽。此外,艾比湖湿地空间连通性理想度排序为：春季>夏季>秋季,湿地景观连通性取决于较大面积的湿地斑块,连通效率东移。相关结果可弥补稀缺资料区基础湿地资料,为“一带一路”地区生态补水长效机制提供典型示范。     

我国典型秸秆露天燃烧黑碳的高时间分辨率排放特征及其排放清单

农作物秸秆燃烧是大气中黑碳(black carbon,BC)气溶胶的主要来源之一。目前农作物秸秆燃烧排放黑碳的研究主要集中在通过离线样品分析获得的BC排放特征,缺少实时在线排放特征的研究。本研究收集了我国具有代表性的4种农作物秸秆(小麦秸秆、水稻秸秆、玉米秸秆和大豆秸秆),通过在实验室燃烧平台模拟农作物秸秆露天燃烧的过程,利用黑碳仪获得农作物秸秆燃烧过程中BC的实时浓度排放变化;利用质量重建,获得BC在线排放因子。结果表明:农作物秸秆在明燃过程中BC的排放因子较为稳定。通过平均排放因子的计算,获得小麦秸秆、水稻秸秆、玉米秸秆和大豆秸秆的BC排放因子分别为(0.32±0.05) g?kg~(-1)、(0.31±0.13) g?kg~(-1)、(0.31±0.09) g?kg~(-1)和(0.44±0.01) g?kg~(-1)。在排放因子的基础上,结合我国农作物秸秆露天燃烧量,最终建立了2015年我国省级(不含港澳台地区)典型农作物秸秆燃烧的BC排放清单。     

海南地区新型雷电预警系统预警效率的评估与分析

基于2017年5-8月全国雷电监测定位系统ADTD探测到的闪电定位数据,根据标准IEC-62793中对雷电预警系统预警效率评估的定义,对海南地区部分雷电预警站点的预警效率进行了统计分析。海南地区新型雷电预警系统的平均有效预警率(MPOD)约为85%,高于大部分雷电预警系统的有效预警率;对闪电事件的预警率平均可达到95%,表明可以对发生在预警站点有效覆盖范围内95>的闪电提供有效预警;平均错误预警率(MFAR)约为73%,与各类预警系统相比,错误预警率偏高;预警提前期的平均值和中值分别为13.9min和9.6min。