Drivers influencing adaptive management: a retrospective evaluation of water quality decisions in South East Queensland (Australia)

This article analyzes interviews with natural resource managers in South East Queensland (SEQ), Australia. The objectives of the research are (i) to apply and test deductive/inductive text analysis methods for constructing a conceptual model of water quality decision-making in SEQ, (ii) to understand the role of information in the decision-making process, and (iii) to understand how to improve adaptive management in SEQ. Our methodology provided the means to quickly and objectively explore interview data and also reduce potential subjective bias normally associated with deductive text analysis methods. At a more practical level, our methodology indicates potential intervention points if one is to influence the decision-making process in the region. Results indicate that relevant information is often ignored in SEQ, with significant consequences for adaptive management. Contextual factors (political, social, and environmental) together with effective communication or lobbying strategies often prevent evidence-based decisions. We propose that in addition to generating information to support decisions, adaptive management also requires an appraisal of the true character of the decision-making process, which includes how stakeholders interact, what information is relevant and salient to management, and how the available information should be communicated to stakeholders and decision-making bodies.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-014-0537-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Use of standardized methods to improve extinction-risk classification

Standardized classification methods based on quantifiable risk metrics are critical for evaluating extinction threats because they increase objectivity, consistency, and transparency of listing decisions. Yet, in the United States, neither federal nor state agencies use standardized methods for listing species for legal protection, which could put listing decisions at odds with the magnitude of the risk. We used a recently developed set of quantitative risk metrics for California herpetofauna as a case study to highlight discrepancies in listing decisions made without standardized methods. We also combined such quantitative metrics with classification tree analysis to attempt to increase the transparency of previous listing decisions by identifying the criteria that had inherently been given the most weight. Federally listed herpetofauna in California scored significantly higher on the risk-metric spectrum than those not federally listed, whereas state-listed species did not score any higher than species that were not state listed. Based on classification trees, state endemism was the most important predictor of listing status at the state level and distribution trend (decline in a species’ range size) and population trend (decline in a species’ abundance at localized sites) were the most important predictors at the federal level. Our results emphasize the need for governing bodies to adopt standardized methods for assessing conservation risk that are based on quantitative criteria. Such methods allow decision makers to identify criteria inherently given the most weight in determining listing status, thus increasing the transparency of previous listing decisions, and produce an unbiased comparison of conservation threat across all species to promote consistency, efficiency, and effectiveness of the listing process.     

中国报废汽车中铂族金属回收潜力估算

基于Gompertz模型预测中国2018~2050年民用汽车的社会保有量;在此基础上,采用物质流分析方法估算得出我国汽车高峰报废年限大约为9a.然后,通过市场供给A模型预测我国2018~2025年汽车报废量,结果显示,我国汽车报废量到2025年将达到2535.05万辆,并且地理空间分布极不均衡.基于上述汽车报废量的时空分布,测算不同技术发展情景下废汽车三元催化剂中的铂族金属回收潜力和需求量.结果显示：如果按照当前催化剂消耗水平,全国铂族金属的需求量均在2019年达到峰值,铂钯铑分别达到4.57,65.70,7.92t,有望实现行业内闭环供应;如果以欧盟汽车尾气治理标准为目标,而现有汽车技术不发生根本变化,需求量将大幅增加,铂钯铑分别在2020年达到峰值85.01,109.38,8.37t,存在严重的供需矛盾.为此,建议在汽车生产者责任延伸制度中,关注废催化剂的回收和再生利用,以促进前端生产环节在不同技术选择中考虑稀贵金属的供给限制.     

Conservation Planning when Costs Are Uncertain

Abstract: Spatially explicit information on the financial costs of conservation actions can improve the ability of conservation planning to achieve ecological and economic objectives, but the magnitude of this improvement may depend on the accuracy of the cost estimates. Data on costs of conservation actions are inherently uncertain. For example, the cost of purchasing a property for addition to a protected‐area network depends on the individual landholder's preferences, values, and aspirations, all of which vary in space and time, and the effect of this uncertainty on the conservation priority of a site is relatively untested. We investigated the sensitivity of the conservation priority of sites to uncertainty in cost estimates. We explored scenarios for expanding (four‐fold) the protected‐area network in Queensland, Australia to represent a range of vegetation types, species, and abiotic environments, while minimizing the cost of purchasing new properties. We estimated property costs for 17, 790 10 × 10 km sites with data on unimproved land values. We systematically changed property costs and noted how these changes affected conservation priority of a site. The sensitivity of the priority of a site to changes in cost data was largely dependent on a site's importance for meeting conservation targets. Sites that were essential or unimportant for meeting targets maintained high or low priorities, respectively, regardless of cost estimates. Sites of intermediate conservation priority were sensitive to property costs and represented the best option for efficiency gains, especially if they could be purchased at a lower price than anticipated. Thus, uncertainty in cost estimates did not impede the use of cost data in conservation planning, and information on the sensitivity of the conservation priority of a site to estimates of the price of land can be used to inform strategic conservation planning before the actual price of the land is known.     

Sample support and related scale issues in composite sampling

Composite sampling offers the great promise of efficiency and economy in environmental decision making. However, if careful attention is not paid to matching the support of the sample to that required for making the desired decision, the promise is unfulfilled. Obviously this attention must be applied in the design phase of a composite sampling strategy. Less obvious is the potential for alteration of the design sample support during sample collection and assay. The consequences of not paying attention to these aspects of sample design and assay are discussed in this issue paper illustrated with a series of examples taken from the authors consulting experience.     

Accounting for Uncertainty in Making Species Protection Decisions

Abstract:  Uncertainty gives rise to two decision errors in implementing the U.S. Endangered Species Act: listing species that are not in danger of extinction and delisting species that are in danger of extinction. I evaluated four methods (minimum standard, precautionary principle, minimax regret criterion, adaptive management) for deciding whether to list or delist a species when there is uncertainty about how those decisions are likely to influence survival of the species. A safe minimum standard criterion preserves some minimum amount or safe standard (population) of a species unless maintaining that amount generates unacceptable social cost. The precautionary principle favors not delisting a species when there is insufficient evidence on the efficacy of state management plans for protecting them. A minimax regret criterion selects the delisting decision that minimizes the maximum loss likely to occur under alternative ecosystem states. When the cost of making a correct decision is less than the cost of making an incorrect decision, the minimax regret criteria indicates that delisting is the optimal decision. Active adaptive management employs statistically valid experiments to test hypotheses about the likely impacts of delisting decisions. Safe minimum standard and minimax regret criterion are not compatible with the U.S. Endangered Species Act. The precautionary principle comes closest to describing how federal agencies make delisting decisions. Active adaptive management is scientifically superior to the other methods but is costly and time consuming and may not be compatible with the U.S. National Environmental Policy Act.     

合成旅后装保障方案决策运用模糊评价方法探讨

为使合成旅后装保障方案的决策过程量化,达到决策结果更加符合客观事实的目的,通过引入模糊评价方法,结合分析后装保障方案决策的选择影响因素,确定了不同指标因素下对应的隶属函数,进而建立了针对后装保障方案决策评价问题的定量分析评价模型,最后给出该评价方法的实例运用,结果分析可知该模型在一定程度上保证了后装保障方案决策的科学合理性。     

Seasonal decline in reproductive performance varies with colony size in the fairy martin, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Petrochelidon ariel</Emphasis>

Reproductive success within populations often varies with the timing of breeding, typically declining over the season. This variation is usually attributed to seasonal changes in resource availability and/or differences in the quality or experience of breeders. In colonial species, the timing of breeding may be of particular importance because the costs and benefits of colonial breeding are likely to vary over the season and also with colony size. In this study, we examine the relationship between timing of breeding and reproductive performance (clutch size and nest success) both within and between variable sized colonies (n = 18) of fairy martins, Petrochelidon ariel. In four of these colonies, we also experimentally delayed laying in selected nests to disentangle the effects of laying date and individual quality/experience on reproductive success. Within colonies, later laying birds produced smaller clutches, but only in larger colonies. The general seasonal decline in nest success was also more pronounced in larger colonies. Late laying birds were generally smaller than earlier laying birds, but morphological differences were also related to colony size, suggesting optimal colony size also varies with phenotype. Experimentally delayed clutches were larger than concurrently produced non-delayed clutches, but only in larger colonies. Similarly, delayed clutches were more likely to produce fledglings, particularly later in the season and in larger colonies. We suggest that the reduced performance of late breeding pairs in larger colonies resulted primarily from inexperienced/low quality birds preferring to settle in larger colonies, possibly exacerbated by an increase in the costs of coloniality (e.g., resource depletion and ectoparasite infestations) with date and colony size. These findings highlight the importance of phenotype-related differences in settlement decisions and reproductive performance to an improved understanding of colonial breeding and variation in colony size.     

上海桃浦工业区环境质量评价研究

本研究在污染源调查、现场监铡基础上,运用主成份因子分析赋权法,对本区大气、地面水、地下水、土壤、蔬菜、人群健康六个要素进行单项评价;运用六个环境要素P_(ij)值的空间分布值进行环境质量综合评价;运用实物型投入-产出模型进行系统分析及预测;运用目标规划法进行工业区环境-经济系统优化选择,在此基础上提出经济发展与污染控制的多目标优化方案。