Models at the interface between science and society: impacts and options

Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

迎难而上 大力推进新疆污染减排工作

在深刻论述新疆地区近年来开展节能减排和总量控制工作情况的基础上,针对我区污染物总量控制工作所面临的形势和问题进行了认真总结,并结合我区今后经济发展要求,为确保完成“十一五”总量控制目标,认真做好“十二五”总量控制工作,提出了加强污染源监督管理、完善考核制度、推进大集团战略及提高环境准入条件等8个方面的对策和建议。     

Energy,food, and land — The ecological traps of humankind

Humans’ superiority over all other organisms on earth rests on five main foundations: command of fire requiring fuel; controlled production of food and other biotic substances; utilization of metals and other non-living materials for construction and appliances; technically determined, urban-oriented living standard; economically and culturally regulated societal organization. The young discipline of ecology has revealed that the progress of civilization and technology attained, and being further pursued by humankind, and generally taken for granted and permanent, is leading into ecological traps. This metaphor circumscribes ecological situations where finite resources are being exhausted or rendered non-utilizable without a realistic prospect of restitution. Energy, food and land are the principal, closely interrelated traps; but the absolutely decisive resource in question is land whose increasing scarcity is totally underrated. Land is needed for fulfilling growing food demands, for producing renewable energy in the post-fossil and post-nuclear era, for maintaining other ecosystem services, for urban-industrial uses, transport, material extraction, refuse deposition, but also for leisure, recreation, and nature conservation. All these needs compete for land, food and non-food biomass production moreover for good soils that are scarcer than ever. We are preoccupied with fighting climate change and loss of biodiversity; but these are minor problems we could adapt to, albeit painfully, and their solution will fail if we are caught in the interrelated traps of energy, food, and land scarcity. Land and soils, finite and irreproducible resources, are the key issues we have to devote our work to, based on careful ecological information, planning and design for proper uses and purposes. The article concludes with a short reflection on economy and competition as general driving forces, and on the role and reputation of today’s ecology. Updated version of the keynote lecture presented at the EcoSummit 2007 in Beijing, China, May 24. The article is gratefully dedicated to the memory of my late colleague and friend Frank B. Golley.     

Carbon capture and storage-desirability from a risk management point of view

Environmental and safety risks related to carbon capture and storage concern leakages and accidental releases during transport and geological storage. Based on principles widely accepted in the EU and beyond in the discussion about the where’s and why’s of nuclear waste repositories, this paper discusses the desirability of carbon capture and storage from a risk management point of view, focusing on environmental risks on the global level (climate change). On this basis it is concluded that, if the key energy issue of coming generations, not just in Europe but all around the world, is not the abundance of fossil resources but rather an unacceptably high probability of global warming due to greenhouse gas emissions, then the solution should not include any massive hiding of the emissions but entirely focus on the avoidance based on improved technology in power plants and other industrial installations.     

对秦皇岛市发展生物质能源产业的思考

秦皇岛市具有丰富的生物质能源资源和种植能源作物等发展能源产业的有利条件,应根据各县区的自然条件和生物质资源状况,科学制定生物质能源产业发展规划,并通过推动技术创新与科技进步、加强宣传引导和政策扶持等措施,促进能源产业的快速、健康发展.     

太阳能污泥干化在欧洲的应用

太阳能污泥干化指的是利用太阳能为主要能源对污水处理厂污泥进行干化和稳定化的污泥处理技术。该技术运用太阳能,借助传统温室干燥工艺,具有低温干化、运行费用低廉、操作简单、运行安全稳定、干化后的污泥仍保留原有的农用价值等特点。该文主要介绍了该工艺的工作原理及流程,工艺设计参数及其与传统热干化技术相比的优缺点,并简要介绍了该工艺在欧洲市场上的商业应用。     

苏州污水处理厂污泥干化工艺方案的比选

污泥处理及其处置所面临的重要问题之一,就是如何对城市污水处理厂产生的污泥进行有效减容,尽量降低对外部能源的需求。文中在掌握国内外污泥干化主要工艺技术的基础上,针对某城市污水处理厂的污泥干化工程,拟对采用燃煤烟气干燥、污泥消化一干化一体化、太阳能热泵干燥等三种不同污泥干化工艺进行物料、能量工艺核算。并在此基础上,计算初期投资与15年的运行费用总和。通过对燃料价格、环保和安全等影响因素的研究,分析比较了五种供热系统,以太阳能热泵供热系统为最优,值得大力推广和应用。     

杉木观光木混交林群落的能量生态

对杉木观光木混交林群落能量的研究结果表明：混交林中观光木地上部分灰分含量以皮最高,而杉则以叶最高,两者GCV（干重热值）和AFCV（去灰分热值）均以叶为最高;观光木、杉木地下各部分的灰分含量均随径级的减小而增加,GCV均以粗根最高,细根最低;观光木的平均灰分含量高于杉木,但GCV和AFCV均低于杉木;从乔木层、灌木层到草本层,灰分含量依次增加,GCV和AFCV则依次降低,混交林群落的能量现存量公占群落的很小一部分,而其能量年净增量、归还量和净固定量却占有一定比重,混交林群落的太阳能转化率为1.57%,而纯林为1.44%,表明杉观混交林是一种能量生产力较高和维持地力能力较强的杉阔混交类型。同时,混交林的能量累积比大于纯林,能量流动速率则低于纯林;乔木层的能量累积比高于林下植被,能量流动速率则低于林下植被,从能量的角度看,构建合理的群落结构必须选择高能量累积比的乔木层树种,同时须促进能量流动速率快的林下植被的发育以维持和提高地力。     

苯蒸气在有机膨润土上的吸附动力学

本文研究了苯蒸气在溴化十六烷基三甲基胺（CTMAB）系列单阳离子有机膨润土上的吸附动力学过程。结果表明,苯蒸气在有机膨润土上的吸附符合一级动力学方程,即：r＝KvCo;在12h内,吸附反应均可达到平衡,吸附速率常数（Kv）与温度（T）成正相关,吸附反应的活化能在9．50－17．92kJ.mol^-1之间。