影响我国民航飞行安全的个体与组织因素——基于HFACS框架的事件分析

主要通过民航事故征候(事件)的分析,对影响飞行安全的人的因素进行研究。数据分析主要采用编码分析的方法,结果发现:在个体层面,对事故征候影响顺序是技能差错、决策差错与知觉差错;机组内部的沟通与协调不畅在各个飞行阶段都存在;在组织层面,监督、资源管理、文化与氛围是比较有影响的组织因素;组织内部与外部的信息界面是飞行安全的隐患之一。与此同时,分析了该项目研究的不足之处,提出改善民航飞行安全的建并指出今后研究的方向。     

中高层砌块砌体结构Pushover分析研究

对3种不同中高层砌块砌体结构(分别为10层、15层和18层砌块砌体结构)进行大量时程分析,对结构的惯性力分布进行研究,提出一种新的适用于中高层砌块砌体结构Pushover分析的侧向力分布模式-抛物线型分布模式,并用该模式分别对3种砌块砌体结构进行Pushover分析。通过将Pushover得到的结构能力曲线与时程分析方法得到的结构能力曲线进行比较,将10层砌块砌体结构的Pushover分析结果与一座1/4比例的10层砌块砌体模型结构的振动台试验结果进行比较。比较结果表明:笔者所提出的侧向力分布模式适用于中高层砌块砌体结构的Pushover分析。     

核电厂运行人员可靠性研究中若干问题的分析

对已有人因可靠性分析模型进行归纳总结,结合核电厂运行人员可靠性研究实际,对人因分类、人因建模、数据采样及人因数据库完善等方面存在的问题进行分析,并提出可能的解决办法或研究方向:在人因分类方式上,要加强因素之间的细化程度,以降低评价的模糊性;在人因量化方面,要重点考虑其所依赖的HRA模型、数学依据、结果精确度等3个方面的影响;对待数据采集的问题,规范性数据采集平台的构建是确保数据一致性的关键措施,并有利于不同HRA模型之间接口相容性问题的解决;人因数据库管理系统的智能决策功能是研发设计的趋势。     

黑龙江省暴雪天气分析和预报技术

分析表明，造成黑龙江省暴雪的低压天气系统不仅来自西北、偏西和偏南方向，而且还有在东北和日本海新生成的，其中又以西南和南来的居多；高空影响系统主要是低槽，其次是低涡，但降暴雪时多数是低涡；造成暴雪的锋面系统以暖锋和锢囚锋为最多。另外，从造成降水的成因和水平锋生这两个角度出发，给出了7个暴雪落区的温压场模型。850hPa温度、850hPa温度平流和拔海高度决定了降水（雨、雪）的性质。     

River Styles, a Geomorphic Approach to Catchment Characterization: Implications for River Rehabilitation in Bega Catchment, New South Wales, Australia

Analysis of the character and condition of each river style in Bega catchment, and their downstream patterns, are used to provide a biophysical basis to prioritorize river management strategies. These reach-scale strategies are prioritorized within an integrative catchment framework. Conserving near-intact sections of the catchment is the first priority. Second, those parts of the catchment that have natural recovery potential are targeted. Finally, rehabilitation priorities are considered for highly degraded reaches. At these sites, erosion and sedimentation problems may reflect irreversible changes to river structure.     

Climate change and changes in global precipitation patterns: what do we know?

The objective of this paper is to synthesize the large literature recording changing patterns of precipitation in the observed data, thus indicating that climate change is already a reality. Such a synthesis is required not only for environmental researchers but also for policy makers. The key question is the broad picture at major regional and continental levels. Some interesting conclusions for this survey are emerging. For example, the review shows increased variance of precipitation everywhere. Consistent with this finding, we observe that wet areas become wetter, and dry and arid areas become more so. In addition, the following general changing pattern is emerging: (a) increased precipitation in high latitudes (Northern Hemisphere); (b) reductions in precipitation in China, Australia and the Small Island States in the Pacific; and (c) increased variance in equatorial regions. The changes in the major ocean currents also appear to be affecting precipitation patterns. For example, increased intensity and frequency of El Ni?o and ENSO seem associated with evidence of an observed "dipole" pattern affecting Africa and Asia, although this time series is too short so far. But the changing pattern calls for renewed efforts at adaptation to climate change, as the changing precipitation pattern will also affect the regional availability of food supply.     

Paper fibers as a carbon source for the de novo formation of polychlorinated dioxins and furans

The formation of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDDs/Fs) from carbon that was produced by the pyrolysis of paper fibers and from wood charcoal was investigated experimentally. Fibers obtained from filter paper were pyrolyzed at 300° and 800°C to produce low- and high-temperature carbon samples. The two types of carbon and wood charcoal were mixed with silica (SiO₂) and trace copper oxide to produce three synthetic fly ash samples. Experiments to measure the formation of PCCDs/Fs from the three ash samples were conducted using a bench-scale reactor. The two carbon samples derived from paper fibers generated more PCDDs/Fs than was generated by the wood charcoal. The PCDDs/Fs generated by the low-temperature carbon and by the wood charcoal were dominated by the lower-chlorinated PCDFs. Such unique homologue distribution patterns are very similar to those generated by the open burning of household waste. The high-temperature carbon generated more highly chlorinated PCDDs/Fs. The effect of pyrolysis temperature on the de novo formation of PCDDs/Fs from residual carbon is discussed. Paper and paper products contained in household waste are likely to be the source of unburned carbon that contributes to high PCDD/F emissions in the open burning of household waste.     

国家地震紧急救援训练基地可控地震废墟设计(Ⅰ)--结构地震破坏模式

我国是一个地震多发的国家，地震灾害给我国造成了巨大的经济损失和严重的生命伤亡。专业化的震后紧急搜索救援能够最大限度地减少人民生命财产的损失，是防震减灾体系不可或缺的组成部分。通过大量的地震灾害实例，并借鉴地震灾害评估方法和建筑物抗震设计，对危害人类生命财产的建筑物震害的特征按照结构类型进行了详细说明，通过对这些地震中常见震害的了解和认识，为国家地震紧急救援训练基地的规划设计和相应搜索救援训练科目的设置提供依据。     

Integration of Visual Quality Considerations in Development of Israeli Vegetation Management Policy

This article deals with the visual quality of Mediterranean vegetation groups in northern Israel, the public's preference of these groups as a visual resource, and the policy options for their management. The study is based on a sample of 44 Mediterranean vegetation groups and three population groups of local residents, who were interviewed using a questionnaire and photographs of the vegetation groups. The results of the research showed that plant classification methods based on flora composition, habitat, and external appearance were found to be suitable for visual plant classification and for the evaluation of visual preference of vegetation groups by the interviewed public. The vegetation groups of planted pine forests and olive groves, characterizing a cultured vegetation landscape, were preferred over typical Mediterranean landscapes such as scrub and grassed scrub. The researchers noted a marked difference between the two products of vegetation management policy, one that proposes the conservation and restoration of the variety of native Mediterranean vegetation landscape, and a second that advanced the development of the cultured landscape of planted olive groves and pines forests, which were highly preferred by the public. The authors suggested the development of an integrated vegetation management policy that would combine both needs and thus reduce the gap between the policy proposed by planners and the local population's visual preference.     

Design and Performance of a Channel Reconstruction Project in a Coastal California Gravel-Bed Stream

A 0.9 km-reach of Uvas Creek, California, was reconstructed as a sinuous, meandering channel in November 1995. In February 1996, this new channel washed out. We reviewed project documents to determine the basis for the project design and conducted our own historical geomorphological study to understand the processes operating in the catchment and project reach. The project was designed using a popular stream classification system, based on which the designers assumed that a "C4" channel (a meandering gravel-bed channel) would be stable at the site. Our historical geomorphological analysis showed that the reach had been braided historically, typical of streams draining the Franciscan Formation in the California Coast Ranges, with episodic flows and high sand and gravel transport. After the project washed out, Uvas Creek reestablished an irregular, braided sand-and-gravel channel, although the channel here was narrower than it had been historically, probably due to such factors as incision caused by gravel mining. Our study casts doubt on several assumptions common in many stream restoration projects: that channel stability is always an appropriate goal; that channel forms are determined by flows with return periods of about 1.5 years; that a channel classification system is an easy, appropriate basis for channel design; and that a new channel form can be imposed without addressing the processes that determine channel form.