2012年国内外石油化工行业事故统计分析

按照事故级别、所属板块、事故类型、事故时间、涉及的化学品、发生国家,对2011年和2012年国内外石油化工行业发生的死亡1人以上的事故进行了统计分析,研究了事故动态和趋势.结果表明:重特大事故呈上升态势,具有“小概率、大后果”的特点;事故涉及的化学品种类很集中;我国伤亡事故金字塔呈现出“底部小、形状陡”的特点;死亡人数/起数比值与经济发展水平有关;爆炸事故的起数和死亡人数最高,事故起数增幅较大,火灾事故起数增幅不大,但死亡人数有大幅度增加,泄漏事故和其他事故的起数、死亡人数均有所降低.根据统计分析的结果,从加强未遂事件管理、引进OSHA绩效考核机制、加强危险品运输和化工企业安全监管、加大安全投入和提升安全技术装备水平等方面提出了建议措施.对研究国内外石化行业的事故动向,从整体上防范事故发生,具有重要的指导意义.     

The impact of monetary liquidity on Chinese aluminum prices

By expanding Frankel and Rose's (2009) theoretical model to consider the interaction of commodity prices with both money liquidity and expectation formation, this paper empirically studies the long-run relationship and short-term dynamics between aluminum prices and money liquidity via Vector autoregressive (VAR) and Impulse Response Function methodologies. Our results show that: (1) a cointegration relationship between money liquidity and Chinese aluminum prices exists, and monetary liquidity positively significantly influences the price over long periods; (2) a structural change has been found during the 2008 Financial Crisis and the change of Chinese monetary policies; and (3) the negative impact of production capacity mechanism on aluminum prices coexists with the positive impact of financial asset returns mechanism, to allow for varied market expectations on aluminum prices within and outside China.     

图像处理在弹琴蛙(Rana adenopleura)蝌蚪生物监测研究中的应用

利用图像处理方法对不同质量浓度的阿特拉津溶液(1mg／L、5mg／L、10mg／L、15me／L)中弹琴蛙(Rana ade-nopleura)蝌蚪行为进行了图像的识别及分析．根据实验结果，利用MATLAB语言编写了弹琴蛙蝌蚪在水族缸中具体分布型判定的程序，采用了负二项分布的参数κ值来反应不同溶液中蝌蚪聚集程度的差异，并作为该指示生物监测阿特拉津水体污染情况的一个指标．结果显示，该程序可如实反映不同污染水体中蝌蚪的聚集程度：经χ^2检验各种水体中蝌蚪均符合负二项分布，同时阿特拉津溶液中蝌蚪的κ值均小于空白对照和丙酮对照，表明阿特拉津溶液的浓度和蝌蚪的聚集程度相关．图9表1参14     

Male-male association patterns and female proximity in the guppy,Poecilia reticulata

If males differ in their ability to attract potential mates, and are able to perceive such differences, theory predicts they should distribute themselves in a manner that increases their probability of obtaining potential matings. The relationship between male-male association patterns and the proximity of females in social groups, however, remains virtually unexplored. Experimental analysis of this relationship in the guppy, Poecilia reticulata, demonstrates that in preference tests males showed a strong tendency to associate with other males that were further away from potential mates than they were themselves. Male guppies pursue a behavioral strategy that involves categorizing other males based on their proximity (and possibly relative attractiveness) to females, remembering the identity of such individuals, and using this information when choosing between other males as associates. Such a strategy may increase a male's chances of being the individual chosen by a female assessing nearby males.     

New Approaches to the Assessment of Structural Organization of Communities in Springtails (Hexapoda: Collembola)

Trends in the diversity of structural organization of soil animal communities are analyzed using an example of the taxocenes of springtails, small soil arthropods. Different methods for describing the structure of communities are considered. On the basis of parameters characterizing specialization and stability of communities, several patterns of their organization in springtails are distinguished. It is shown that the new approach offers new opportunities in forecasting community dynamics under the effects of natural and anthropogenic factors.     

The State of Protected Forest Communities in the European Forest–Steppe Zone of Russia and Prospects for Their Reconstruction: A Case Study of Specially Protected Areas of Penza Oblast

The structure of most forest communities in the European forest–steppe, including protected areas, has been disturbed. The adverse consequences of these disturbances include the incomplete age structure of the populations of cenosis-forming species and the irreversibility of successions. The conservation of biodiversity in the structurally disturbed communities is impossible without human intervention, which must be aimed at restoring their age heterogeneity with regard to their specific ecological features.     

我国投资拉动的宏观成本分析

我国多年来坚持的是一种高投入、高消耗的投资拉动型增长模式．而高投资高增长则更多地以宏观成本积累为代价。未来投资的增速不仅取决于经济增长的预期目的．更多的取决于资金、技术、资源支撑和环境容量。通过对高投资高增长发展模式的高宏观成本分析，提出了贯彻落实科学发展观、促进经济方式转变的若干结论性建议。     

Ethological Structure of Freshwater Benthic and Nektobenthic Communities and Its Changes under the Influence of Abiotic and Anthropogenic Factors

Classification of the mode of life and behavior of zoobenthic, nektobenthic, and neustonic organisms was used as a basis for elucidating the formation of ethological structure of their communities in small lakes and streams of northeastern Fennoscandia. It is shown that the general response of these communities to anthropogenic impact is manifested in the reduction of the number of ethological groups. The specific response to eutrophication and heat pollution involves a decrease in the relative biomass of clingers and burrowers and an increase in the biomass of sprawling–walking and wormy animals; the response to toxic pollution and acidification is manifested in the prevalence of sprawlers–walkers.     

不同生态经济类型区生态农业模式与技术研究

开展区域生态农业建设，是推进农业结构战略性调整，加速农业由资源数量型向技术效益型转化，实现农业可持续发展的必然选择。根据湖南省近10年生态农业研究成果与实践经验，针对全省不同生态经济类型区的自然资源特点和社会经济发展水平，系统研究阐明了山地“林-药-果”、丘陵“草-粮-牧”、岗地“果-粮-猪”、平湖“粮-经-牧-渔”、水域“水生经济作物-水禽-水产”共生、蓄洪垸“林-草-牧-渔”、庭园“猪-沼-果”、城郊(或旅游区)“农业观光园”等区域生态农业实用模式的建设重点与技术要点，并实例分析了推广应用上述高效生态农业模式所产生的经济、生态与社会效益。     

辽宁省境内老哈河流域产沙特征及泥沙供给模式研究

在对辽宁省境内老哈河流域土壤侵蚀研究的基础上,通过计算泥沙迁移时间确定了该流域基于栅格尺度的泥沙输移比的空间分布,最终获得该流域的产沙量,结果表明北部的老官地、哈拉道口、烧锅营子等地以及中南部河流两侧是流域内主要产沙源;选用坡度、植被盖度、土地利用类型、土壤可蚀性、距河流距离、基岩岩性等因子,建立了老哈河流域泥沙供给的数学模型,结果表明流域产沙主要与坡度、距河流距离、土地利用类型和植被盖度密切相关。因此,改变土地利用类型、提高植被盖度是防治流域致灾泥沙的关键因素。本研究对今后老哈河流域土地利用规划及泥沙治理具有一定的指导意义。