基于模糊评价和层次分析法的客运索道安全评价方法研究

结合我国客运索道安全运行状况,针对国内尚未建立健全客运索道安全评价体系的现状,以单线循环固定抱索器索道为例,依据现行的客运索道安全规范及其监督检验规程,创建客运索道的安全状况综合评价模型,并应用层次分析法确定评价模型各级因素的权重,然后将模糊评价方法应用到客运索道安全状况的综合评价中,最终得到评价模型的安全等级,即安全状况综合评价的结果,从而建立一种新的客运索道安全评价方法。笔者通过该方法的工程实践,并将该方法与常规安全检查方法进行对比分析,认为该方法具有实用性强,可操作性好,结果准确以及适合我国现有索道等优点,具有较好的应用前景。     

富营养化湖泊藻华腐解产生的溶解性有机质动态变化及其环境效应

富营养化和有害藻华是湖泊面临的主要环境问题,富营养化湖泊藻华在后期会发生衰亡和腐解并产生大量藻源溶解性有机质（DOM）,影响水体DOM的质量和活性,并对关键元素的生物地球化学循环产生重要调控作用.为探究不同富营养化程度湖泊水体藻华腐解过程,对藻华腐解过程中水体DOM总量、生物有效性、相对分子质量和组分的动态变化进行分析,并探讨了藻华腐解引发的环境效应.结果表明,藻华腐解显著提高DOM浓度、生物有效性和各荧光组分强度.随着腐解的进行,DOM浓度逐渐降低,而相对分子质量逐渐增大.在分子水平上,超高分辨率质谱结果显示腐解过程中不饱和烃和脂肪族化合物优先被微生物利用,并生成木质素、缩合烃和高O/C值的单宁酸等惰性分子.藻华腐解过程中细菌群落主要优势种从变形菌门（46%）逐渐变为拟杆菌门（42%）.此外,藻华腐解还导致水体CO₂和CH₄排放显著升高1.2~5倍,且排放量可以由DOM光学指标a₂₅₄预测.该结果为全面揭示藻华腐解过程中DOM特征的动态变化,以及湖泊富营养化治理和环境效应预测提供理论依据和科学支撑.     

Study of high-frequency electromagnetic field effect on some somatic and neuro-behavioral characteristics in healthy and neurodefective mice

The effect of long-term exposure to high frequency electromagnetic field (HF EMF) on some somatic and neural characteristics was studied in neurodefective Lurcher mutant (+/Lc) and normal wild type mice (+/+). Both newborn and young adult (3 months) animals derived from two strains (C3H, B6CBA) were exposed to HF EMF (870 MHz) from 1st to 21st day or from 91st to 120th day respectively. In animals of both groups and controls we observed the development of body weight. Moreover, in the HF EMF exposed adult B6CBA animals we studied spatial learning ability, motor functions and the CNS excitability. To investigate specific energy absorption rate (SAR) in experimental animals we have done the basic 3D calculations of the electromagnetic energy distribution in the simplified model of the mouse. The HF EMF exposed animals exhibited mild differences of body weight between them and unexposed controls. The long-term exposure to HF EMF did not significantly influence the ability to learn in the Morris water maze. However, significant lower swimming speed was found in the irradiated +/Lc as well as lower motor activity of +/+ in the open field when compared to controls. No significant differences were found between HF EMF irradiated animals and controls in examination of the CNS excitability and motor functions.     

城市应急能力评估指标体系核心项处理方法研究

在城市应急能力评估体系的基础上，分析了类、属性以及特征的关系，明确了属性在其中的重要性，建立了以改进的层次分析法为基础城市应急能力评估指标体系权重计算方法，指出权重与核心项之间的关系，确定以第75百分位数作为城市应急能力评估体系属性核心项判定标准，经过专家计算，确定了20项城市应激能力评估体系属性的核心项，为顺利开展城市应急能力评估奠定了基础。     

基于TF-熵权法的矿井通风系统可靠性可拓评价

为准确评价煤矿通风系统可靠性,提高可靠性评价的客观性与准确性,有效防止因通风系统故障而引起的煤矿安全事故,提出基于三角模糊数(TF)-熵权法的矿井通风系统可靠性可拓评价模型,首先利用德尔菲法从通风动力、通风网络等6个方面,选取29个评价指标确定矿井通风系统可靠性评价指标体系;然后,通过三角模糊数与熵权法相结合的方式确定...     

Designing environmental monitoring networks to measure extremes

This paper discusses challenges arising in the design of networks for monitoring extreme values over the domain of a random environmental space-time field {X _ij } i = 1, . . . , I denoting site and j = 1, . . . denoting time (e.g. hour). The field of extremes for time span r over site domain i = 1, . . . ,I is given by \(\{Y_{i(r+1)}=\max_{j=k}^{k+n-1} X_{ij}\}\) for k = 1 + rn, r = 0, . . . ,. Such networks must not only measure extremes at the monitored sites but also enable their prediction at the non-monitored ones. Designing such a network poses special challenges that do not seem to have been generally recognized. One of these problems is the loss of spatial dependence between site responses in going from the environmental process to the field of extremes it generates. In particular we show empirically that the intersite covariance Cov(Y _i(r+1),Y _i′(r+1)) can generally decline toward zero as r increases, for site pairs i ≠ i′. Thus the measured extreme values may not predict the unmeasured ones very precisely. Consequently high levels of pollution exposure of a sensitive group (e.g. school children) located between monitored sites may be overlooked. This potential deficiency raises concerns about the adequacy of air pollution monitoring networks whose primary role is the detection of noncompliance with air quality standards based on extremes designed to protect human health. The need to monitor for noncompliance and thereby protect human health, points to other issues. How well do networks designed to monitor the field monitor their fields of extremes? What criterion should be used to select prospective monitoring sites when setting up or adding to a network? As the paper demonstrates by assessing an existing network, the answer to the first question is not well, at least in the case considered. To the second, the paper suggests a variety of plausible answers but shows through a simulation study, that they can lead to different optimum designs. The paper offers an approach that circumvents the dilemma posed by the answer to the second question. That approach models the field of extremes (suitably transformed) by a multivariate Gaussian-Inverse Wishart hierarchical Bayesian distribution. The adequacy of this model is empirically assessed in an application by finding the relative coverage frequency of the predictive credibility ellipsoid implied by its posterior distribution. The favorable results obtained suggest this posterior adequately describes that (transformed) field. Hence it can form the basis for designing an appropriate network. Its use is demonstrated by a hypothetical extension of an existing monitoring network. That foundation in turn enables a network to be designed of sufficient density (relative to cost) to serve its regulatory purpose.     

用趋势权重污染指数法评价水体的环境质量

针对水环境质量的均值污染指数评价方法的缺点 ,提出了利用趋势权重污染指数法来评价微水体环境质量。并通过实例与均值污染指数法进行了比较 ,结果证明 ,趋势权重指数法评价水体质量准确、简便。     

景观生态学及熵模型在荒漠化监测与评价中的应用

在对景观生态学和"熵"的概念及其特征进行分析的基础上,以承德市北部荒漠化地区为例,重点讨论了景观生态学中优势度指数、均匀度指数以及热力学中熵模型在荒漠化土地动态变化及评价中的应用.根据2001年8月31日Landsat卫星遥感TM数据,结合现场调查,通过景观熵值、植被覆盖度等指标综合评判,对研究样地荒漠化程度进行划分.结果表明:通过熵模型计算荒漠化景观系统的熵值,可以判断荒漠化景观发展趋势,也可以比较不同荒漠化景观的荒漠化程度.经过综合指标分析,判定丰宁县小坝乡属于重度荒漠化地区,围场县御道口属于中度荒漠化地区,该结论与实际相符合.      

南京市大气气溶胶中二元羧酸昼夜变化研究

2002年3月14-19日在南京大学校园内进行了为期1周的采样,用以研究大气气溶胶PM_2.5中的低分子量(C₂～C₁₀)二元羧酸的昼夜变化规律.结果表明,南京市大气气溶胶中二元羧酸的夜间质量浓度(平均为460ng/m3)普遍高于相应的白天质量浓度(平均为350 ng/m3).草酸是含量最高的二元羧酸,其次是丁二酸与丙二酸,这3种二元羧酸占所检测到的水溶性有机酸总量的89%.由C3/C4(ρ(丙二酸)/ρ(丁二酸))(平均为1.00)可以判断采样期间气溶胶中有机酸主要来源于大气的光化学氧化反应,从C6/C9(ρ(己二酸)/ρ(壬二酸))(平均为0.88)可以认为生物源是有机酸的一个重要来源.