基于变权综合理论的天然气管道动态风险评价

为对天然气管道进行有效的风险评估,提出基于变权综合理论的天然气管道动态风险评价法。利用故障树分析法(FTA)确定天然气管道不同时间空间下的主要风险因素,实时更新风险指标体系;同时引入变权综合原理,建立权重跟随指标值动态变化的变权赋值模型;然后对天然气管道进行综合评定,确定管道当前状态的风险程度。以陕京3线中某管段为例进行分析,得出该管段当前风险等级为中等,在后期运行中应被重点监控。变权赋值与动态指标体系的结合使该方法能实时反映管道风险状况,并适用于天然气管线各段。     

基于熵权模糊综合评价的铁路危险货物运输预警

为保证危险货物铁路运输安全,基于铁路交通灾害预警管理理论,就危险货物铁路运输提出预警管理方法和建议。首先大量参阅危险货物铁路运输事故案例,结合安全系统工程理论,构建危险货物铁路运输预警系统指标体系。然后针对模糊综合评价权重难以确定的问题,为避免权重主观性过强,利用基于熵权模糊综合评价法对危险货物铁路运输安全进行评价。结合实例试算,结果表明:基于熵权模糊综合评价法的结果同原用评价法的结果基本一致。最后探讨铁路危险货物运输的定性预控措施。     

基于组合权物元分析模型的地下水水质评价

针对以往地下水水质评价中多采用单一权重法确定各评价指标权重的不足,提出基于主客观组合权重的权重计算模式,并运用权重风险度计算公式选出相对合适的组合权重,再与物元分析理念相结合,构建用于评价地下水水质的组合权物元分析模型。应用该模型对阜新新邱露天煤矿排土场淋溶水的地下水污染区的12个监测点水质进行综合评价。结果表明:研究区的1#～5#监测点水质均达到Ⅱ级以上,符合国家饮用水标准要求;6#～12#监测点水质均受到不同程度的污染,已不能饮用。评价结论与灰色关联分析法和模糊综合评价法所得结论基本一致。     

基于模糊熵和非对称贴近度的安全预警评估方法

针对系统安全风险评估和预警过程中,系统安全特性和各预警因素所存在的模糊不确定性问题,将熵理论和模糊数学相结合,提出一种基于模糊熵和非对称贴近度的系统安全预警评估方法。在建立系统安全预警评估指标体系的基础上,首先,分析基于模糊熵理论确定预警指标权重的可行性,给出系统预警指标赋权算法;其次,建立基于模糊非对称贴近度确定系统安全等级的过程,第三,给出系统安全预警评估的具体计算步骤;最后,以人为因素系统的安全预警评估为例进行方法的实例验证。实例分析结果表明采用该方法所确定的系统预警指标权重更加符合客观实际,能有效解决系统安全预警评估中存在的模糊不确定性问题,系统预警决策结果合理有效。     

不同分子量的腐殖酸存在下2种无机砷的生物毒性效应研究

水环境中天然有机质会与砷形成络合物,进而影响砷的迁移、转化和生物毒性。研究利用超滤方法将腐殖酸(humic acid, HA)分为5个不同分子量的组分,以大型溞为受试生物,探究了不同分子量HA存在下砷对大型溞的毒性效应。结果表明,不同分子量的HA均缓解了As(Ⅲ)和As(Ⅴ)对大型溞的氧化应激损伤和细胞膜损伤,并降低了砷对MT的诱导量。其中1～30 k Da的HA对砷的缓解效果最好,1 k Da的HA毒性缓解效果最差,可能的原因是HA与砷的络合增加溶液中络合态砷的含量,而络合态砷难以进入细胞并被生物利用。不同分子量的HA对砷毒性的缓解差异与其跟砷的络合比例不同有关。     

基于博弈论-云模型的露天矿岩质边坡稳定性分析

针对露天矿岩质边坡稳定性具有随机性和模糊性的特点,建立了基于博弈论-云模型的边坡稳定性分级评价方法。首先,通过分析边坡稳定性影响因素,构建了包括地质、环境和工程条件等多方面的综合指标评价体系;其次,采用改进层次分析和熵权理论分别确定指标的主观和客观权重,基于博弈论计算指标综合权重;最后,通过计算综合确定度,基于最大隶属度原则确定边坡的稳定性等级。将所建立的评价模型应用到某露天矿边坡稳定性评价中,结果显示该模型的评价结果与实际情况完全符合,与未确知测度和可拓学理论的评价结果一致,表明该模型具有一定可靠性和实用性。     

基于SPA-VFRM的城市要害系统综合应急能力研究

为反映城市要害系统综合应急能力的发展现状及过程,在分析城市要害设施系统构成与面临的主要灾害类型基础上,提出从充分性、精确性、抵御性和及时性4个维度评价应急能力的思路,建立城市要害系统综合应急能力评估指标体系,并应用层次分析法与变异系数法确定指标综合权重,结合集对分析（SPA）与可变模糊识别模型（VFRM）构建城市要害系统综合应急能力的评价模型;运用该模型实证分析某市要害系统综合应急能力发展现状。实证表明:该市要害系统综合应急能力呈现“波浪式升高”的动态发展趋势,灾害抵御能力是构成综合应急能力的主要方面;3种方法的评价结果排序基本一致,表明该模型的评估结果稳健、可靠,能够有效反映城市要害系统综合应急能力发展情况。     

Effect of low-molecular weight organic acids on phosphorus release and phytoavailabilty of phosphorus in phosphate rocks added to soils

Phosphorus (P) is critically needed to improve soil fertility in many parts of the world. The use of water-soluble P fertilizers, e.g., single super-phosphate and triple super-phosphate in developing countries to improve crop production has been limited primarily by their high cost. The presence of indigenous phosphate deposits in some countries provides an incentive for direct application or local chemical treatment at low cost to improve the solubility of low reactive phosphate rocks (PRs). The use of naturally occurring low-molecular weight organic acids (LMWOAs) that are produced in soil as microbial metabolites or plant exudates from dead or living cells represents a new perspective in PR research. The LMWOAs contain various functional groups that may play a significant role in PR dissolution. Little information is available, however, about the potential of LMWOAs in releasing P from PRs. This study reports P release from 12 PRs, four each of low, medium, and high reactivity, obtained from various deposits (Kodjari, Tahoua, North Carolina, Gafsa, Khouribga, Tilemsi Valley, Central Florida, Sechura, Minjingu, North Florida, Hahotoe, and Parc W) using nine LMWOAs containing mono-, di-, and tri-carboxylic groups and a mineral acid (H₂SO₄). Laboratory studies showed that the organic acids are effective in releasing P from low and medium reactive PRs, but very ineffective in releasing P from high reactive PRs. The average amounts of P released by all the organic acids from the three types of PRs were 65.5 mmol kg⁻¹ PR from the low reactive PRs, 55.1 mmol kg⁻¹ from the medium, and 11.1 mmol kg⁻¹ from the high; those released from across all the PRs were 21.9 by the mono-carboxylic acid group, 54.2 by the di-carboxylic acid group, and 57.0 mmol P kg⁻¹ by the tri-carboxylic acid group. The P released was negatively correlated with the equilibrium pH, but positively correlated with Ca released from the PRs. Laboratory incubation studies on the release of P from PRs added to soils with or without organic acids and incubated at 25 °C for 15, 30, and 45 days showed that the percentage of plant-available P released varied considerably from 0.95 in the Kodjari PR to 40.1% in the North Carolina PR and was related to PR reactivity. A greenhouse study with corn (Zea mays L.) grown for 60 days on soils treated with PRs or with PRs mixed with organic acids showed that corn response to addition of oxalic or citric acid varied with P rates and PR sources, suggesting that organic acids have potential as amendments for increasing plant-available P in PR-treated soils.     

A hybrid method for inverse characterization of subsurface contaminant flux

The methods presented in this work provide a potential tool for characterizing contaminant source zones in terms of mass flux. The problem was conceptualized by considering contaminant transport through a vertical "flux plane" located between a source zone and a downgradient region where contaminant concentrations were measured. The goal was to develop a robust method capable of providing a statement of the magnitude and uncertainty associated with estimated contaminant mass flux values. In order to estimate the magnitude and transverse spatial distribution of mass flux through a plane, the problem was considered in an optimization framework. Two numerical optimization techniques were applied, simulated annealing (SA) and minimum relative entropy (MRE). The capabilities of the flux plane model and the numerical solution techniques were evaluated using data from a numerically generated test problem and a nonreactive tracer experiment performed in a three-dimensional aquifer model. Results demonstrate that SA is more robust and converges more quickly than MRE. However, SA is not capable of providing an estimate of the uncertainty associated with the simulated flux values. In contrast, MRE is not as robust as SA, but once in the neighborhood of the optimal solution, it is quite effective as a tool for inferring mass flux probability density functions, expected flux values, and confidence limits. A hybrid (SA-MRE) solution technique was developed in order to take advantage of the robust solution capabilities of SA and the uncertainty estimation capabilities of MRE. The coupled technique provided probability density functions and confidence intervals that would not have been available from an independent SA algorithm and they were obtained more efficiently than if provided by an independent MRE algorithm.     

Extensions to minimum relative entropy inversion for noisy data

Minimum relative entropy (MRE) and Tikhonov regularization (TR) were compared by Neupauer et al. [Water Resour. Res. 36 (2000) 2469] on the basis of an example plume source reconstruction problem originally proposed by Skaggs and Kabala [Water Resour. Res. 30 (1994) 71] and a boxcar-like function. Although Neupauer et al. [Water Resour. Res. 36 (2000) 2469] were careful in their conclusions to note the basis of these comparisons, we show that TR does not perform well on problems in which delta-like sources are convolved with diffuse-groundwater contamination response functions, particularly in the presence of noise. We also show that it is relatively easy to estimate an appropriate value for epsilon, the hyperparameter needed in the minimum relative entropy solution for the inverse problem in the presence of noise. This can be estimated in a variety of ways, including estimation from the data themselves, analysis of data residuals, and a rigorous approach using the real cepstrum and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Regardless of the approach chosen, for the sample problem reported herein, excellent resolution of multiple delta-like spikes is produced from MRE from noisy, diffuse data. The usefulness of MRE for noisy inverse problems has been demonstrated.