洪涝灾害条件下疏散交通生成预测方法

为有助于有关部门更准确预测洪涝灾害受灾民众的疏散量,结合非集计数据和集计数据的优点,提出分区集计数据的概念,设计了受灾区域分区方法,并通过意向偏好(SP)调查法对我国居民在洪涝条件下疏散交通需求数据进行调查。在此基础上,引入BP神经网络建立基于分区集计数据的疏散交通生成预测模型。利用调查数据进行实证分析发现,所设计方法取得了较好的预测效果,鲁棒性较好,平均相对预测误差仅为1.8%,其预测效果明显优于现有的非集计和整集计模型。     

Sustainability: a Dissent

Abstract:  Broadly conceived and considered in its many usages, sustainability has grave defects as a planning goal, particularly when used by conservationists: it confuses means and ends; it is vague about what is being sustained and who or what is doing the sustaining; it is uninspiring; it is little more than Pinchot-era conservation (and thus ignores the many lessons learned since then); it need not be linked to land, to the land's functioning, or to any ecological science; it need not include a moral component; it is consistent with the view of humans as all-powerful manipulators of the planet; and, in general, it is such a malleable term that its popularity provides only a facade of consensus. When sustainability is defined broadly to include the full range of economic and social aspirations, it poses the particular risk that ecological and biodiversity concerns will be cast aside in favor of more pressing human wants. Given these many defects, the conservation movement should discard the term in favor of a more alluring goal, attentive to nature and its ecological functioning. A sound goal would incorporate and distill the considerable ecological and moral wisdom accumulated since Pinchot's day while giving conservationists the rhetorical tools needed to defend the land against competing pressures. In our view, conservation would be well served by an updated variant of "land health," Aldo Leopold's ecologically grounded goal from the 1940s. Land health as an independent understanding should set the essential terms of how we live and enjoy the earth, providing the framework within which we pursue our many social and economic aims.     

云南湖区公众环境宣传教育活动浅析

湖泊综合治理,单靠行政手段和经济手段是远远不够的,必须发动群众,依靠湖区周边的广大群众,通过广泛深入地进行环境保护宣传教育,提高广大群众的环境保护意识,促使他们自觉自愿地投身于湖泊的治理和建设中去,湖泊治理才能取得预期效果.     

建设规范化实验室工作中的档案管理

以大连市环境监测中心为例，介绍了实验室认可中档案管理人员的设置，人员技术档案、监测业务档案、仪器设备档案、物资采购档案、质量体系文件归档的方法和要求。阐述了实验室认可中档案管理的重要性。     

Ethics of Sustainable Development – a Study of Swedish Regulations for Genetically Modified Organisms

In spite of stricter provisions inthe new EU directive on deliberate release ofgenetically modified organisms (GMOs), criticsstill advocate a moratorium on permits forcultivation of GMOs. However, in an attempt tomeet concerns raised by the public, thedirective explicitly gives Member States thepossibility to take into consideration ethicalaspects of GMOs in the decision-making. Thisarticle investigates the potential effects ofsuch formulation by means of an empiricalanalysis of experiences gained the last yearsfrom similar Swedish regulations for GMOs,aiming at promoting sustainable development.The faulty implementation shown in the Swedishcase indicates that legal stipulations forethics as such have limited importance. It issuggested that public participation is animportant factor for successful implementationof the ethics of sustainable development.     

论国家生态安全

国家生态安全是一种全新的现代国家安全观，要重视和维护国家生态安全。     

矿产资源的开发利用与环境保护

作者论述了人口、资源、环境三者之间的辩证关系，提出环境保护是矿产资源开发利用的前提，不能以牺牲环境为代价来开发利用矿产资源。以此为基点，作者概述了我国矿产资源开发利用对环境的影响，以及我国矿山环境保护工作的现状，提出了加强矿产资源开发利用中环境保护的五项建议。     

四川石油天然气工业环境统计体系现状分析及改进对策

针对四川石油天然气工业环境统计中存在的非稳定污染源监测数据的统计价值不高，统计调查方法单一，个别统计指标计算未使用国家统一标准等现状，从环境监测站改组入手，改革统计调查方法，建立以必要的周期性普查为基础，以经常性的抽样调查为主体，同时辅之以全面统计报表，重点调查和科学推算综合运用的统计调查方法体系。     

State Park Directors' Perceptions of Mountain Biking

/ This study intended to explore the perceptions of mountain bikingmanagement through a mail survey of state park directors in all 50 states.With a 100% response rate, it was found that 47 states permit mountainbiking in their state parks, however, few state parks have formalized plansto manage this outdoor activity. The management policies that do exist arenot followed on a statewide basis but vary within each state and at eachstate park. Many states have worked cooperatively with local mountain bikingclubs to develop and maintain mountain bike trails, promote rider education,and provide volunteer patrols on trails. The issue of user conflict surfacedwith almost three-fourths of the managers responding that conflict existedbetween mountain bikers and other trail users. This preliminary study shouldprompt further research with on-site managers focusing on the use ofmanagement plans for mountain biking, cooperation between managers and usergroups, and user conflict. It is recommended that an Internet-basedinformation clearinghouse or discussion group be made available to landmanagers by a national bicycling organization.KEY WORDS: Mountain biking; State parks; State park directors;Recreation resource management