Water Management Applications for Satellite Precipitation Products: Synthesis and Recommendations

This article is an assessment of the current state of the art and relative utility of satellite precipitation products (SPPs) for hydrologic applications to support water management decisions. We present a review of SPPs, their accuracy in diverse settings including the influence of geography, topography, and weather systems, as well as the pros and cons of their use for different water management applications. At the end of this broad synthesizing effort, recommendations are proposed for: (1) SPP developers to improve the quality, usability, and relevance of precipitation products; and (2) SPP users to improve the reliability of their predictions and hydrologic applications to better support water management.     

Employing the shared socioeconomic pathways to predict CO2 emissions

Predicting CO₂ emissions is of significant interest to policymakers and scholars alike. The following article contributes to earlier work by using the recently released “shared socioeconomic pathways” (SSPs) to empirically model CO₂ emissions in the future. To this end, I employ in-sample and out-of-sample techniques to assess the prediction accuracy of the underlying model, before forecasting countries’ emission rates until 2100. This article makes three central contributions to the literature. First, as one of the first studies, I improve upon the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) by incorporating the SSPs, which did not exist when the RCPs have been released. Second, I calculate predictions and forecasts for a global sample in 1960–2100, which circumvents issues of limited time periods and sample selection bias in previous research. Third, I thoroughly assess the prediction accuracy of the model, which contributes to providing a guideline for prediction exercises in general using in-sample and out-of-sample approaches. This research presents findings that crucially inform scholars and policymakers, especially in light of the prominent 2 °C goal: none of the five SSP scenarios is likely to be linked to emission patterns that would suggest achieving the 2 °C goal is realistic.     

坡度图在滑坡研究中的应用

本文阐述了坡度图的概念和作用;详细介绍了坡度尺、坡度图的作法、以及坡度图在兰州地区的应用结果;简要分析了斜坡坡度与滑坡的关系。     

资源型城市接续主导产业的选择研究--以白银市为例

本文论述了资源型城市接续主导产业选择的重要性和选择原则，并以白银市为例，利用综合评价值法广告牌了白银市的主导产业和优势产业，然后用特尔斐法对白银市的接续主导产业进行了选择，选择结果比较符合白银市的实际情况。     

Three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model for TMDL development of Lake Fuxian, China

Lake Fuxian is the largest deep freshwater lake in China. Although its average water quality meets Class I of the China National Water Quality Standard (CNWQS), i.e., GB3838-2002, monitoring data indicate that the water quality approaches the Class II threshold in some areas. Thus it is urgent to reduce the watershed load through the total maximum daily load (TMDL) program. A three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model was developed for Lake Fuxian, simulating flow circulation and pollutant fate and transport. The model development process consists of several steps, including grid generation, initial and boundary condition configurations, and model calibration processes. The model accurately reproduced the observed water surface elevation, spatiotemporal variations in temperature, and total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and chemical oxygen demand (COD) concentrations, suggesting a reasonable numerical representation of the prototype system for further TMDL analyses. The TMDL was calculated using two interpretations of the water quality standards for Class I of the CNWQS based on the maximum instantaneous surface and annual average surface water concentrations. Analysis of the first scenario indicated that the TN, TP and COD loads should be reduced by 66%, 68% and 57%, respectively. Water quality was the highest priority; however, local economic development and cost feasibility for load reduction can pose significant issues. In the second interpretation, the model results showed that, under the existing conditions, the average water quality meets the Class I standard and therefore load reduction is unnecessary. Future studies are needed to conduct risk and cost assessments for realistic decision-making.     

道路交通噪声不同预测模型之比较

目前,我国在进行道路交通噪声环境影响评价工作中主要使用的预测模型有2009声导则模型、2006规范模型,此外,也有部分噪声评价工作采用了德国的CadnaA软件。因各种模型在使用条件和参数选取等方面存在不同,导致预测结果存在差异。如何选取合适的预测模型,一直是国内学者不断研究想解决的问题。本文对已有道路交通噪声进行现场实测,通过设计不同的预测模式进行模型验证,将预测结果与实测值进行比较,结果表明这五种噪声预测模式中,模式一、模式四、CadnaA软件的噪声预测值与实际情况最相符,模式一绝对预测误差昼间在3.3-6.0 dB(A)之间,夜间在-3.4-0.2 dB(A)之间。使用2009声导则模型、2006规范模型相结合的预测模式更为准确。     

香溪河库湾水质特征与非回水区水华响应关系

为探究香溪河在受倒灌影响较弱的河段水华暴发征兆及机理,于水华高发期5~8月对香溪河进行监测,分析电导率、水温、叶绿素a（Chl-a）以及流速.结果表明,在6~8月,香溪河倒灌现象于XX05点（峡口镇）处基本结束,XX06~XX09受倒灌来水影响较弱;香溪河于7月暴发水华,各个监测点位上Chl-a含量均值达到100μg/L以上,XX05~XX06与XX07-XX09点位上暴发不同种水华;在水华暴发前后,水体温度无显著变化,且并无明显分层现象,说明水温分层是水华暴发的主要原因这一理论并不能很好的适用于非回水区;通过对电导率数值的研究发现,数值在垂向上出现显著拐点,而拐点出现在临界层与光补偿层之间,同时与叶绿素a含量分布呈现显著负相关性.香溪河总氮（TN）、总磷（TP）平均值为1.849mg/L和0.157mg/L,均超过富营养化的阈值,水体氮磷含量与Chl-a浓度无显著相关性,水体中除N、P营养盐外的其它离子对香溪河水华的暴发起着重要作用.在水华消退后,电导率数值又逐渐恢复表层高底层低的垂向线性分布特性,与水华的暴发、消退有着明显的响应.     

呼伦贝尔沙区土壤细菌群落结构与功能预测

以呼伦贝尔沙区裸沙地、草地、沙地樟子松（Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica）人工林和沙地樟子松天然林四种生境土壤为研究对象,采用野外调查、16S rRNA基因高通量测序和PICRUSt功能预测相结合的研究方法比较分析不同生境土壤细菌群落结构和潜在功能组成特征.结果显示：呼伦贝尔沙区沙地樟子松天然林土壤细菌多样性最高,人工林土壤细菌多样性最低,Shannon指数分别为（8.623±0.193）和（7.432±0.028）,不同生境土壤细菌alpha和beta多样性存在显著差异.草地、沙地樟子松人工林和天然林土壤中变形菌门（Proteobacteria）相对丰度最高,均值分别为29.83%±1.14%、34.73%±1.99%、31.95%±0.21%,裸沙地土壤放线菌门（Actinobacteria）相对丰度最高,均值为26.13%±0.43%.不同生境土壤细菌主要优势属为慢生根瘤菌属（Bradyrhizobium）、RB41,其相对丰度在四种生境中的均值分别为5.29%±2.24%、4.22%±1.23%.PICRUSt功能预测共得到6个一级功能层,40个二级功能层,土壤细菌功能较为丰富,土壤细菌群落在环境信息处理、代谢、遗传信息处理和有机系统方面功能活跃.沙地樟子松天然林核苷酸代谢、酶家族、氨基酸代谢、碳水化合物代谢功能基因较为丰富,保证了沙地樟子松天然林土壤细菌的存活,使其具有较高的多样性.呼伦贝尔沙区不同生境土壤细菌功能基因丰度波动,反映了四种生境的土壤细菌群落组成及多样性的变化,指示了不同生境功能基因对土壤细菌群落的影响规律,可为预测和理解沙区土壤细菌代谢潜力和功能提供参考借鉴.     

中国超大城市碳排放达峰的影响因素及组合情景预测——基于门限-STIRPAT模型的研究

城市是中国碳排放的重要来源,而超大城市的碳达峰研究对国内其他城市和全国能否实现碳达峰目标具有重要的现实意义.以北京、上海、广州、深圳、天津和重庆等6个超大城市为研究对象,能源强度为门限变量,建立门限-STIRPAT模型,首先确定6个超大城市碳排放的驱动因素,然后对27种情景下的各城市碳排放达峰进行预测.研究结果表明:①人口、人均GDP和能源强度对各城市碳排放起到正向促进效应,人口的影响效应最大,其次是能源强度,人均GDP对碳排放的影响最小.②能源强度对二氧化碳排放的影响呈阶段性变化特征.③北京、上海和重庆在高能源强度下降率的情景下,已经达峰;天津、除最宽松的高-高-高情景外的广州和深圳会在2030年前实现达峰.如果能源强度以中速率下降,6个城市碳排放不能保证一定能在2030年前达峰.如果能源强度以低速率下降,6个城市均不能在2030年前达峰.本研究有利于明确超大城市碳排放的影响因素,对其他城市尽快实现碳排放达峰具有借鉴意义,为全国实现碳达峰目标提供可行的研究思路.     

不同海拔鬼箭锦鸡儿根际和非根际土壤细菌群落多样性及PICRUSt功能预测

鬼箭锦鸡儿作为我国北方高山和亚高山地区的主要建群植物,是区域生态系统的重要组成部分,但是很少有研究关注其对土壤生态系统的影响及其对环境变化的响应.因而,以鬼箭锦鸡儿为研究对象,采用高通量测序技术,分析了不同海拔鬼箭锦鸡儿根际和非根际土壤细菌群落多样性特征,并进行了功能预测分析.结果表明,所有样品共检测到43门、 112纲、 251目、 324科和542属,变形菌门、酸杆菌门和放线菌门是根际和非根际土壤中的优势菌群.虽然不同海拔之间,鬼箭锦鸡儿根际和非根际土壤细菌多样性指数和群落结构不存在显著差异,但是在同一海拔水平上,根际和非根际土壤细菌多样性指数和群落结构组成存在显著差异.PICRUSt功能预测表明,细菌群落主要涉及氨基酸代谢、碳水化合物代谢、辅助因子和维生素代谢等29个子功能,表现出功能上的丰富性,且代谢为最主要的功能.土壤细菌二级代谢通路预测基因相对丰度的变化与变形菌门、酸杆菌门和绿弯菌门等菌群丰度显著相关,并且土壤细菌预测功能基因组成的差异与土壤细菌群落结构的差异呈显著正相关,说明细菌群落结构与功能基因可能存在密切联系.研究初步探讨了不同海拔梯度下鬼箭锦鸡儿根际和非根际土壤细菌...