液碳生产企业安全监控与自控系统开发

液态二氧化碳生产企业快速发展,规模逐年增大,安全监控与自动化水平不高导致事故风险日益升高。通过对液碳企业危险和风险分析,利用数据采集、实时数据库、参数监控、视频监控、预警报警、通讯和网络等技术,构建安全监控与自控系统,完成对液碳生产流程、有毒、有害、易燃易爆物品以及关键设备设施的动态监测、安全管理、智能分析、联锁控制、报警、应急辅助决策和统计查询等功能。安全监控与自控系统建设和实施可实现液碳生产企业安全、稳定、长周期、经济运行。     

Defining and achieving sustainable development

SUMMARY

This paper analyses the fundamental problems of defining and achieving sustainable development. A common core of the various definitions of sustainability circulating is identified. Economic and scientific approaches to operationalize sustainability generally lead to management rules, which — if obeyed — should guarantee sustainability. Since it is not possible to precisely predict the future, this scientific—technical—economic route to sustainability may fail. A second, ethical way, to sustainability which interprets sustainability as an ideal for fair play is introduced. How the two different ways may complement one another with a three-step hierarchy of political goals is elucidated.     

水文水质模型联合应用于水库水质预测研究

联合应用流域水文非点源AnnAGNPS模型和水库水质CE-QUAL-W2模型,AnnAGNPS模型输出黑河流域非点源污染负荷,将其转化为金盆水库入库浓度作为CE-QUAL-W2模型的输入,对黑河金盆水质进行预测,研究非点源污染对陕西金盆水库水质影响.结果表明,在对水库水质进行预测时,应对洪水期和非洪水期的非点源污染区别对待.非点源污染在洪水期时对金盆水库水质有较大影响,而在非洪水期时非点源污染对水库水质影响不显著.非点源污染对水库纵向和垂向水质影响存在差异性.林地对流域非点源污染削减起到很大作用.     

风电机组噪声预测

在已有后缘为钝形双叶片风电机组噪声预测模型基础上,结合我国风力发电机组叶片形状及其辐射噪声的频谱特性等,对预测模型进行了修正.通过对3台不同型号风电机组13个测点噪声测量值和预测值对比验证表明,修正后模型能较好地反映风电机组噪声的衰减规律.在预测点与风轮中心距离大于1.5倍风轮直径时,修正后模型预测值与实测值差值在±2.5dB(A)范围内.利用修正后预测模型计算确定的风电机组噪声声功率级及指向性指数,将其代入考虑指向性的点声源模型,可用于简化预测与风轮中心距离大于3倍风轮直径处的噪声.     

预测法在安全生产中的应用研究评述及展望

为更好地研究不同预测法在安全生产领域的应用现状和发展趋势,以当前安全类主流杂志中发表的涉及安全生产的文献为依据,统计6种定量预测法使用的频率和范围,分析预测法在当前安全生产方面应用的特点和成效,探讨预测法在安全领域的应用价值和前景。得出结论:选择有效预测法能极大地提高安全生产中事故发生的预测效率,做到先预防再预控;没有一种预测法是恒定有效的,预测法的选择需要根据不同部门、不同场景进行调整;组合预测法的灵活使用不仅能够避免单一预测法的不足,而且能提高事故预测的准确度。     

航空装备事故的灰色时序组合预测模型

为提高航空装备事故预测水平,提出一种基于灰色和时间序列分析模型的航空装备事故组合预测模型。先构建灰色模型,提取历史数据中承载的趋势信息。然后进行模型选择、阶数识别和参数估计,建立灰色残差的时间序列分析模型,用以刻画历史数据中的随机波动特征。最后,将2个模型的预测值相加,得到所求的组合预测结果。实例中,以美国空军1996—1999年的A级飞行事故10万时率数据为基础,建立灰色时序组合模型,模型中短期预测精度优于单一灰色模型,平均相对误差控制在5%以内,预测结果能够反映航空装备安全的实际状况。     

基于泛平均运算的矿井瓦斯浓度组合预测模型

为有效分析煤矿瓦斯监测数据以实现准确、可靠的瓦斯浓度预测,基于不等权泛平均运算模型,研究瓦斯浓度时间序列组合预测的方法,提出一种新的矿井瓦斯浓度组合预测模型,并证明最优组合预测模型是其特例。采用自回归(AR)模型和径向基函数(RBF)神经网络预测模型作为组合预测模型的单项预测模型;以遗传算法和最小二乘法确定新组合预测模型的参数,实现瓦斯浓度预测单项模型的最优组合。试验分析表明:新模型在平方和误差、平均绝对误差、均方误差、平均绝对百分比误差、均方百分比误差等评价指标上,均取得比自回归模型、径向基函数神经网络模型和最优组合预测模型更低的误差。     

The application of kinetics based simulation method in thermal risk prediction of coal

Coal spontaneous combustion is one of the major natural disasters faced in coal mines. The accurate prediction of the thermal risk of coal is of great importance. However, there isn't a widely accepted approach to get the oxidation process of coal that under adiabatic condition or in a specific environment under mine at present. To demonstrate whether the advanced kinetics simulation method could be employed to obtain the accurate oxidation process of coal for determining the coal's thermal risk in the mine design phase and mining phase, DSC experiments were conducted by C80 micro-calorimeter to get the heat behavior of coal, based on which the kinetic parameters can be solved and the oxidation process of coal can be predicted.The results showed that the kinetics based simulation method was successfully used to predict the adiabatic temperature rise process of coal for risk prediction. The deviation between the predicted curve and tested curve that obtained by adiabatic test is small enough to be accepted. Kinetics based simulation method is a promising candidate, instead of adiabatic test, to assess the propensity of coal to spontaneous combustion, which can play an important role in the design phase of the mine and mining area. Moreover, through establishing the heat balance equation of residual coal and with the aid of kinetics based simulation method, the oxidation process of coal that in the suffocation zone of the gob was also accurately predicted. According to the index t₇₀ (the time required for coal to reach 70 °C) and v_min (the lower limit of the advancing speed of the working face) obtained from the predicted curve, the thermal risk of coal was predicted to guide the further adjustment of the advancing speed of the working face, the amount of the injected mud and the determination that whether to add other fire prevention measures. Kinetics based simulation method, be of great practical importance in risk prediction of coal that in the gob, can be also used as a convenient tool to guide the safe production in the actual mining process.     

响应面法建立不同经口介质中邻苯二甲酸酯生物有效性预测模型及相关因素

运用响应面法对不同消化基质下邻苯二甲酸酯(PAEs)生物有效性的相关因素进行筛选建立预测模型,并对主要因素设定值进行分析.研究表明,3种模型中因变量与自变量之间的相关性较好(土壤:R2=0.959;农作物及植物:R2=0.973;脂肪:R2=0.862),模型拟合度较高.通过多次试验模拟,初步认为在土壤消化基质中,设置人体摄入PAEs经口摄入浓度为10μg·g-1,基质质量为0.4g,pH值约为7时,生物吸收量最高.在植物源基质下,污染物浓度在10—11μg·g-1,消化时间在6—7h,基质质量为0.4g为生物吸收量最高.脂肪源中,基质质量在0.4g,污染物浓度在10μg·g-1,脂肪量在10%—11%时,PAEs生物吸收量最高.研究通过重复试验,充分体现了该模型的准确性,及设定条件的可靠性.但本研究仅考虑摄入介质相对单一,污染物化合形态等未在考虑范围内,在后期研究中将补充试验.     

基于多米诺效应的输油管道重大事故后果分析

针对近年来不断发生的输油管道重大事故,引入多米诺效应理论分析输油管道事故后果。首先依据多米诺效应机理,建立输油管道重大事故多米诺效应模型,然后采用PHAST软件确定初始事故影响范围,运用设备损坏概率和人员伤亡概率模型计算初始事故对周围设备和个体的影响概率,从而可以从设备损坏、人员伤亡和事故影响范围三个方面定量分析输油管道的事故后果。研究结果对制定输油管道重大事故应急抢险方案,避免事故影响范围进一步扩大具有理论指导意义。