用泥石流灾害信息网络减轻泥石流对列车的威胁

提出建立铁路泥石流灾害信息网络的设想，以便在泥石流形成和发生的各个阶段，较准确地作出是否让列车过桥的决定。文中对网络的背景、组成、工作原理及开发中应注意的问题进行了探讨。     

Models for Prediction and Assessment of Losses of Production Suspending and Cutting in Enterprises

１ＴｈｅＬｏｓｓｅｓｏｆＰｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＳｕｓｐｅｎｄｉｎｇ／ＣｕｔｔｉｎｇａｎｄＩｔｓＭｅａｓｕｒｉｎｇＳｃａｌｅ１．１ＴｈｅＬｏｓｓｅｓｏｆＰｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＳｕｓｐｅｎｄｉｎｇａｎｄＣｕｔｔｉｎｇＴｈｅｌｏｓｓｅｓｏｆｐｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎｓｕｓｐｅｎｄｉｎｇａｎｄｃｕｔｔｉｎｇｍｅａｎｔｈｅｌｏｓｓｅｓｔｈａｔｔｈｅｅｎｔｅｒｐｒｉｓｅｓｈａｖｅｔｏｓｔｏｐｏｒｒｅｄｕｃｅｉｔｓｐｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎｏｐｅｒａｔｉｏｎａｎｄｌｏｗｅｒｓｉｔｓｐｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎｓｃａｌｅｆｏｒｔｈｅｗ…     

湖泊水环境预测的原理与方法

论述了湖泊水环境预测常用方法,主要有输入输出模型、扩散模型、富营养化水质模型和多元回归模型等,属于因果关系的短期和瞬时预测,并且将灰色动态模型和回归分析模型耦合能预测湖泊水环境今后几年甚至几十年的变化,将提高预测效率;提出了湖泊水环境的基本程序;最后指出水资源研究的随机分析、模糊分析和灰色系统的耦合与ＧＩＳ、ＲＳ和ＧＰＳ的应用是今后湖泊水环境预测的发展趋势。     

新一代地震预报专家系统NGESEP知识库子系统

对新一代地震预报专家系统ＮＧＥＳＥＰ中“规则／框架”知识、学习知识、一般规则进行了详细的介绍,给出了各类知识在地震预报中所对应的不同含义和一致性检查的方法。     

华北地区中强地震前调制地震异常特征

利用调制地震方法对华北地区１９７３年以来发生的２４个ＭＬ≥５．５地震前地震调制比、地震调制比异常面积、调制地震条带和调制地震频度的异常变化进行分析,对异常类型进行分类。分析结果认为,华北地区ＭＬ≥５．５地震前地震调制比和异常面积随时间进程的起伏、调制地震频度震前数月的突然增大以及调制地震条带异常图象是显著的异常变化,可以用于对中、强地震的中期预报     

华南地区1998年度地震趋势分析——地震学异常度预测法

采用地震学异常度预测法对华南地区的地震活动趋势进行再研究,丰富了华南地区的地震学异常度预测震例,对全区未来地震趋势作出了较为合理的判断,尤其是对广西环江、荔波４．９级地震的跟踪预测和震后环境判定得出了令人信服的图象判据。     

张北6-2级地震及晋北地区的重力场变化

对张北6-2 级地震震中区的地壳深部构造和靠近震中区的晋北地区的重力场变化进行了研究。认为,区域构造运动、地壳深部物质迁移和区域应力场的积累是这次地震的主要原因。晋北地区地震前后出现了明显的重力场变化,并具有异常范围大、幅度高的特点。     

鲍集乡房屋基本情况调查——谈农村防震减灾工作

通过对盱眙县鲍集等乡（镇）农村住房基本情况调查,反映了目前农村住房质量差,存在严重震灾隐患的问题。一旦遭遇５～６级中强地震,倒塌或严重破坏的房屋将占４０％左右。分析原因,主要是广大农民抗震减灾意识淡薄,对农村建房疏于管理及农村建筑队伍技术力量薄弱。对此提出治理意见并建议地方政府在制定农村房屋建筑管理办法,使农村房屋基本达到抗震要求,最大限度减轻地震灾害损失。     

ON THE MISMATCH BETWEEN DATA AND MODELS OF HYDROLOGIC AND WATER RESOURCE SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: Many difficulties exist in the matching of models with data. This paper identifies elements of this problem and discusses considerations involved in model evaluation. The well known multivariate linear regression model is used to illustrate the distinctions between accuracy and precision and between estimation and prediction (because the model is commonly misused.) No amount of additional data will improve the accuracy of a poor model. A high R², while indicative of a good matching between the observed data and model estimates, is a poor criterion for judging adequacy of the model to make good predictions of future events. Model evaluation also includes the problem of introducing secondary data and proxy variables into a model. Secondary data frequently enter, for example, the mass, energy and water budget equations because of difficulties in measuring the primary variables. Proxy variables arise because of a desire to collapse a vector of incomparable values, say, of water quality into a single number. Review of the above issues indicates that model evaluation is a multi-criterion problem, often imbedded in a larger framework where models are intended to meet multiple objectives. The mismatch of models and data has increasing legal and social consequences.     

Alkaline Degradation of Cellulose: Mechanisms and Kinetics

Cellulose powder and softwood sawdust were subjected to alkaline degradation under conditions representative of a cementitious environment for periods of 7 and 3 years, respectively. During the first 3 years, sampling was frequent, and data on the degradation of cellulose and production of isosaccharinic acid was used for establishing long-term prediction models. Samples after an additional period of 4 years were compared to the predicted values. The total rate of degradation was measured as the increase in total organic carbon (TOC) in corresponding solutions. A previously published theoretical model of degradation kinetics gave a good approximation of the present experimental data. Peeling-off, stopping, and alkaline hydrolysis reaction rate constants were obtained as model parameters, and the results suggested that the transformation of the glucose end group is the rate-limiting step in the cellulose peeling-off reaction and also determines the pH dependence of that reaction. After 3 years, isosaccharinic (ISA) acid represented 70–85% of all degradation products as quantified by capillary zone electrophoresis. The long-term prediction model indicated that all of the cellulose would be degraded after only 150–550 years. The control sampling after 7 years points toward a lower degradation of cellulose and production of ISA than predicted by the model, reflecting either a degradation of ISA that was faster than the production or a termination of the ISA production.