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1.
Kelly M. Cobourn Hannah J. Burrack Rachael E. Goodhue Jeffrey C. Williams Frank G. Zalom 《Journal of Environmental Economics and Management》2011,62(2):278-289
A modeler must often rely on highly simplified representations of complex physical systems when analyzing associated economic issues. Herein, we consider a management problem in which a bioeconomic system exhibits simultaneity in processes governing productivity and damage. In this case, it may benefit the producer to sacrifice productivity to reduce the costs associated with increased damage. We specify empirically a structural damage relationship that explains the biological process by which an invasive species damages a host and estimate the structural model and its reduced form with an exceptional dataset on infestation of olives by the olive fruit fly. We contrast the results of these models with the approach typically taken in the economic literature, which expresses damage as a function of pest density. The population-based approach introduces significantly greater bias into the individual grower's choice of damage-control inputs than estimates based on the structural model. 相似文献
2.
Enrique J. La Motta 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1995,31(2):207-216
ABSTRACT: This paper presents a discussion of the chemistry of CO2 removal in tray aerators, and different sets of equations that are applicable to several initial water chemical conditions are proposed. These chemical equations and a statistical model to predict the kinetic constant were tested with field data observed by other researchers in pilot units and in a full scale plant. The water temperature in their experiments was around 15°C. 相似文献
3.
D. L. Fread 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1973,9(2):338-351
ABSTRACT The effects of the size of the Δt time step used in the integration of the implicit difference equations of unsteady open-channel flow are determined for numerous typical hydrographs with durations in the order of days or even weeks. Truncation errors related to the size of the Δt time step cause a numerical distortion (dispersion and attenuation) of the computed transient. The magnitude of the distortion is related directly to the size of the time step, the length of channel reach, and the channel resistance and inversely to the time of rise of the hydrograph. The type of finite difference expression which replaces spatial derivatives and non-derivative terms in the partial differential equations of unsteady flow has an important influence on the magnitude of the numerical distortion, as well as the numerical stability of the implicit difference equations. Time step sizes in the range of 3 to 6 hrs generally tend to minimize the combination of required computation time and numerical distortion of transients having a time of rise of the order of several days. 相似文献
4.
Krishan P. Singh 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1976,12(2):381-392
ABSTRACT. Unit hydrographs derived by using two methods, linear programming and least squares, are compared. Test data comprise rainfall and runoff information from four storms over the North Branch Potomac River near Cumberland, Maryland. The mathematical bases of these methods for unit-hydrograph derivation are explained. The linear programming method minimizes the sum of absolute deviations, and the least squares method minimizes the sum of the squares of deviations. Computer subroutines are readily available for application of these methods. The unit hydrographs derived with the two methods are practically the same for storms 2 and 3, but differ somewhat for storms 1 and 4. However, the reconstituted direct surface runoff hydrographs are similar to those observed with the exception of the hydrograph for storm 4 which had a relatively more non-uniform rainfall excess of a considerably larger duration. 相似文献
5.
A general model is developed to examine the patterns of the regional movement of tagged and released fish from mark-recapture
experiments. It is a stochastic model that incorporates fishing mortality, natural mortality, fish movement, tag-shedding,
and different rates of reporting. A likelihood function is constructed for estimating its parameters. We used this model to
analyze data on the Pacific halibut from mark-recapture experiments conducted by the International Pacific Halibut Commission
(IPHC), with a total of 36,058 releases from 1982 to 1986 and 5,826 recoveries from 1982 to 2000. We estimated their rates
of movement among IPHC management areas, along with their instantaneous rates of natural and fishing mortalities. Our analysis
revealed that fish movement was not significant among areas, with a resident probability of > 0.92. This lends support to
the IPHC catch-at-age stock assessment model (which has no built-in movement components). The estimated instantaneous rate
of natural mortality (0.198 year−1) lies between that assumed in all IPHC stock assessments before 1998 (0.20 year−1) and that from 1999 onwards (0.15 year−1). The estimates of the instantaneous rates of fishing mortality were consistent with those from the IPHC stock assessment
model.
Received: April 2003 / Revised: May 2005 相似文献
6.
7.
Henri E.Z. Tonnang Lev V. Nedorezov John O. Owino Horace Ochanda Bernhard Löhr 《Ecological modelling》2009
The performance of discrete mathematical models to describe the population dynamics of diamondback moth (DBM) (Plutella xylostella L.) and its parasitoid Diadegma semiclausum was investigated. The parameter values for several well-known models (Nicholson–Bailey, Hassell and Varley, Beddington, Free and Lawton, May, Holling type 2, 3 and Getz and Mills functional responses) were estimated. The models were tested on 20 consecutive sets of time series data collected at 14 days interval for pest and parasitoid populations obtained from a highland cabbage growing area in eastern Kenya. Model parameters were estimated from minimized squared difference between the numerical solution of the model equations and the empirical data using Powell's method. Maximum calculated DBM growth rates varied between 0.02 and 0.07. The carrying capacity determined at 16.5 DBM/plant by the Beddington et al. model was within the range of field data. However, all the estimated parameter values relating to the parasitoid, including the instantaneous searching rate (0.07–0.28), per capita searching efficiency (0.20–0.27), search time (5.20–5.33), handling time (0.77–0.90), and parasitism aggregation index (0.33), were well outside the range encountered empirically. All models evaluated for DBM under Durbin–Watson criteria, except the May model, were not autocorrelated with respect to residuals. In contrast, the criteria applied to the parasitoid residuals showed strong autocorrelations. Thus, these models failed to estimate parasitoid dynamics. We conclude that the interactions of the DBM with its parasitoid cannot be explained by any of the models tested. Two factors may be associated with this failure. First, the parasitoid in this integrated biological control system may not be playing a major role in regulating DBM population. Second, and perhaps more likely, poor correlations reflect gross inadequacies in the theoretical assumptions that underlie the existing models. 相似文献
8.
In this paper we present a new approach describing population dynamics based on the view of a population as an oscillating system. To develop a mathematical model of an oscillating population, we applied a third-order differential equation. Our model describes population dynamics within a parametric-temporal continuum, formed by the relative values of population growth and decrease over time. In this paper we also illustrate how our oscillative model effectively compliments the existing suite of models in population dynamics. 相似文献
9.
A hierarchical Bayesian non-linear spatio-temporal model for the spread of invasive species with application to the Eurasian Collared-Dove 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
The spread of invasive species is a long studied subject that garners much interest in the ecological research community.
Historically the phenomenon has been approached using a purely deterministic mathematical framework (usually involving differential
equations of some form). These methods, while scientifically meaningful, are generally highly simplified and fail to account
for uncertainty in the data and process, of which our knowledge could not possibly exist without error. We propose a hierarchical
Bayesian model for population spread that accommodates data sources with errors, dependence structures between population
dynamics parameters, and takes into account prior scientific understanding via non-linear relationships between model parameters
and space-time response variables. We model the process (i.e., the bird population in this case) as a Poisson response with
spatially varying diffusion coefficients as well as a logistic population growth term using a common reaction-diffusion equation
that realistically mimics the ecological process. We focus the application on the ongoing invasion of the Eurasian Collared-Dove. 相似文献
10.
R. Burnett S. Bartlett D. Krewski G. Robert M. Raad-Young 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》1994,1(4):325-332
A statistical model for longitudinal count data is used to examine the potential adverse health effects of ambient air pollution. Daily respiratory admissions to 164 acute care hospitals in Ontario are obtained for the period 1983 to 1988. Estimates of ozone levels in the vicinity of each hospital are determined from air pollution monitoring stations maintained by the Ontario Ministry of the Environment. Generalized estimating equation methods are used to make inferences about the regression and overdispersion parameters. The admission data display little evidence of serial correlation and extra Poisson variation. However, admission rates vary considerably among hospitals. This latter source of variation needs to be taken into account in examining the effects of air pollution on respiratory health status. 相似文献