Dynamic growth model for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) plantations in Galicia (north-western Spain)

In this study we developed a dynamic growth model for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) plantations in Galicia (north-western Spain). The data used to develop the model were obtained from a network of permanent plots, of between 10 and 55-year-old, which the Unidade de Xestión Forestal Sostible (Sustainable Forest Management Unit) of the University of Santiago de Compostela has set up in pure plantations of this species of pine in its area of distribution in Galicia. In this model, the initial stand conditions at any point in time are defined by three state variables (number of trees per hectare, stand basal area and dominant height), and are used to estimate stand volume, classified by commercial classes, for a given projection age. The model uses three transition functions expressed as algebraic difference equations of the three corresponding state variables used to project the stand state at any point in time. In addition, the model incorporates a function for predicting initial stand basal area, which can be used to establish the starting point for the simulation. This alternative should only be used when the stand is not yet established or when no inventory data are available. Once the state variables are known for a specific moment, a distribution function is used to estimate the number of trees in each diameter class, by recovering the parameters of the Weibull function, using the moments of first and second order of the distribution (arithmetic mean diameter and variance, respectively). By using a generalized height–diameter function to estimate the height of the average tree in each diameter class, combined with a taper function that uses the above predicted diameter and height, it is then possible to estimate total or merchantable stand volume.     

FLUVIAL GEOMORPHOLOGICAL METHODOLOGY FOR NATURAL STABLE CHANNEL DESIGN1

A fluvial geomorphological methodology for designing natural stable channels is being widely applied for river restoration. It is an analogue procedure, as the W/d ratio and sinuosity from a reference reach are scaled to determine the restoration design. The choice of reference reach is crucial and published criteria specify that it should be stable, correspond to the stream type at the restoration site, have the same valley type, and be from the same hydrophysiographic region. For stable, meandering gravel cobble bed rivers flowing through alluvial flood plains (C3 and C4 stream types), UK regime equations are used to evaluate the procedure. Successful design requires particular combinations of the ratios of bankfull discharge, bed material size and load, valley slope, and bank vegetation category between the reference and restoration sites. These critical ratios, which are confirmed by U.S. field data, provide guidelines for selecting a suitable reference reach for C3‐C4 stream types. They also indicate that the reference reach can be in any valley type or hydrophysiographic region. The geomorphological procedure will apply to all stable stream types, provided the reference reach is correctly identified. Specific guidelines for each stream type await the development of additional regime equations.     

A measure of human sensitivity in acute inhalation toxicity

The prediction of the probability of death or injury following the inhalation of a toxic gas or vapour is used in risk analysis. The proportion of a population responding for a given endpoint (e.g. lethality) can be related to the received dose using a probit model. Some of the coefficients in the probit equations are based on data from animal testing. Generally, experimental test animals are bred to exhibit low variability. Animal variability in response to toxic exposures may not adequately represent human variability in response to toxic exposures to the tested chemical. It is suggested that some independently established measure of human variability be used in the formulation of the probit equation constants rather than those that arise solely from the fitting of the animal data.     

OVERPUMPED ARTESIAN WELLS AMONG A WELL GROUP1

ABSTRACT. Overpumped artesian wells are defined and explained. Unified well equations which can be used for artesian, gravity and overpumped artesian wells are derived under both the steady and transient conditions of flow. The location of the boundary between artesian and gravity steady and transient flow systems in artesian aquifers, due to multiple wells among which overpumped artesian wells may exist, is explained.     

Simulation of aquatic food web and species interactions by adaptive agents embodied with evolutionary computation: a conceptual framework

Individual-based and state variable-based adaptive agents (AA) are discussed regarding their relevance to different types of ecosystems. Individual-based AA proved applicable to a spatially explicit simulation of highly simplified terrestrial food webs. State variable-based AA with evolutionary computation (EC) embodied are suggested for the simulation of aquatic food webs and plankton species interactions. Embodiment of EC in AA can be achieved by evolving predictive rules (ER), differential equations (EDE) or artificial neural networks (ANN) derived from a diverse lake database. In order to provide ecosystem simulation with resilience to environmental change, agent banks can be created containing alternative agents for same species or functional groups from different lakes. State variable-based AA are currently tested for aquatic ecosytem simulation by means of a diverse lake database. It promises to overcome constraints by the rigidity of traditional lake ecosystem models.     

Who should wear mask against airborne infections? Altering the contact network for controlling the spread of contagious diseases

There are several ways of controlling the propagation of a contagious disease. For instance, to reduce the spreading of an airborne infection, individuals can be encouraged to remain in their homes and/or to wear face masks outside their domiciles. However, when a limited amount of masks is available, who should use them: the susceptible subjects, the infective persons or both populations? Here we employ susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) models described in terms of ordinary differential equations and probabilistic cellular automata in order to investigate how the deletion of links in the random complex network representing the social contacts among individuals affects the dynamics of a contagious disease. The inspiration for this study comes from recent discussions about the impact of measures usually recommended by health public organizations for preventing the propagation of the swine influenza A (H1N1) virus. Our answer to this question can be valid for other eco-epidemiological systems.     

Hierarchical modeling of the dilute transport of suspended sediment in open channels

We propose, discuss and validate a theoretical and numerical framework for sediment-laden, open-channel flows which is based on the two-fluid-model (TFM) equations of motion. The framework models involve mass and momentum equations for both phases (sediment and water) including the interactive forces of drag, lift, virtual mass and turbulent dispersion. The developed framework is composed by the complete two-fluid model (CTFM), a partial two-fluid model (PTFM), and a standard sediment-transport model (SSTM). Within the umbrella of the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations, we apply K–ε type closures (standard and extended) to account for the turbulence in the carrier phase (water). We present the results of numerical computations undertaken by integrating the differential equations over control volumes. We address several issues of the theoretical models, especially those related to coupling between the two phases, interaction forces, turbulence closure and turbulent diffusivities. We compare simulation results with various recent experimental datasets for mean flow variables of the carrier as well as, for the first time, mean flow of the disperse phase and turbulence statistics. We show that most models analyzed in this paper predict the velocity of the carrier phase and that of the disperse phase within 10% of error. We also show that the PTFM provides better predictions of the distribution of sediment in the wall-normal direction as opposed to the standard Rousean profile, and that the CTFM is by no means superior to the PTFM for dilute mixtures. We additionally report and discuss the values of the Schmidt number found to improve the agreement between predictions of the distribution of suspended sediment and the experimental data.     

Alternative treatments of the cost of time in recreational demand models: an application to whitewater kayaking in Ireland

The measurement of travel costs in recreational demand modeling has been a contentious issue for many decades. This article explores the use of a number of alternative methods of incorporating time costs in the travel cost modeling process. Travel cost values where the opportunity cost of time is excluded, where it is included as a percentage of the individual's reported wage rate and where it based on an estimated wage from a secondary data source (the European Community Household Panel) are compared and then used in a conditional logit model to estimate the demand for whitewater kayaking in Ireland. We then evaluate the effect of different treatments of the cost of travel time on the welfare impacts of a number of different management scenarios for kayaking rivers in Ireland, and find that statistically significant differences emerge.     

正交曲线坐标下Boussinesq方程的研究

从质量守恒方程和Euler方程出发,推导出包含底摩擦耗能、波浪破碎效应和亚格湍流效应的改进型Boussinesq方程,并对该方程以及边界条件进行了正交曲线转换,建立了正交曲线坐标系下的二维波浪模型并用实验地形对本文模型进行了验证,计算结果与实测数据吻合很好,说明模型可以较好地模拟波浪传播过程中的浅水变形、折射、绕射和反射等现象.     

Imputing Unmeasured Explanatory Variables in Environmental Epidemiology With Application to Health Impact Analysis of Air Pollution

This paper presents the results of a reconsideration of earlier work that finds an association between daily hospital admissions for respiratory distress and daily concentrations of sulphate (lag 1) as well as daily maximum concentrations of ozone (lags 1 and 3). These associations are found even after clustering the data by hospital of admission and accounting for the effects of temperature. We use an adaptation of their generalized estimating equation technique for clustered data, that daily data being for southern Ontario summers from 1983 to 1988. Like them, we adjust for daily maximum temperatures. However, unlike the earlier work returned to ours includes daily average humidity as a potential explanatory variable in our model. Our analysis also differs from theirs in that we cluster the data by census subdivision to reduce the risk of confounding pollutant levels with population size within regions. Moreover, we log-transform the explanatory variables and then high-pass filter the resulting data. We also deviate from the earlier analysis by taking account of measurement error incurred in using surrogate measures of the explanatory variables. To do so we use new methodology designed for our study but of potential value in other applications. That methodology requires a spatial predictive distribution for the unmeasured explanatory variables. Each day about 700 missing measurements for each of these variables can then be imputed over the geographical domain of the study. With these imputations we get a measure of imputation error through the covariance of the predictive distribution. Along with the predictive distribution we require an impact model to link-up with the predictive distribution. We describe that model and show how it uses the imputed measurements of the missing values of the explanatory variables. We also show how through that model, uncertainty about these values is reflected in our analysis and in commensurate uncertainties in the inferences made. Apart from its substantive objectives, our analysis serves to test the new methods with the earlier results serving as a foil. The reassuring qualitative agreement between our findings and the earlier results seems encouraging.