多收入阶层CGE模型在能源资源税改革效应分析中的应用研究

开展能源资源税改革效应分析,是评估环境政策改革在环境效益、经济效率和公平效应上是否实现共赢目标的基础工作.通过细分社会核算矩阵中的居民收入组账户,构建面向多收入阶层的CGE模型,有利于量化环境税费领域改革产生的效应.经模拟测算得到,中国能源资源税改革将对GDP、部门总产出和社会总消费等主要宏观经济指标带来负面影响,但均在可接受范围内.微观层面上,居民收入组内的可支配收入和消费支出则受到不同程度的负面影响.     

水分润湿过程中煤中瓦斯解吸规律试验

为了深入探讨水分对煤中瓦斯解吸特性的影响,采用试验和理论分析相结合的方法,按照原煤的固有粒度配比加工制作型煤,充分干燥后使其吸附平衡以模拟原始煤体,然后利用自制的试验装置实现水分自然进入含瓦斯煤,再测试水分润湿含瓦斯煤过程中样品缸内的瓦斯压力变化情况。结果表明:水分润湿含瓦斯煤过程中样品缸内瓦斯压力不断升高,水分能置换出煤中吸附瓦斯;相同吸附平衡压力下,煤样含水率越高,水分占据的有效吸附位越多,累计瓦斯解吸量越大,当煤样含水率达到煤的极限吸水率时,累计瓦斯解吸量达到极限值;同一含水率条件下,随吸附平衡压力增长,煤样吸附饱和度逐渐增加,水分越难进入煤体内部细微孔隙,造成累计瓦斯解吸量逐渐增加,但增幅逐渐减小,随吸附平衡压力不断升高,极限瓦斯解吸量趋于一定值。     

考虑地层蠕变特性的盾构隧道施工对邻近桥桩影响和保护措施*

为探讨地层蠕变特性盾构隧道施工对邻近桥桩变形影响,基于Burgers模型建立本构数值模型,并采用FLAC3D软件进行计算。结果表明:盾构隧道贯通后,邻近桥梁承台基础变形持续增加,变形趋于稳定至少需要1 a时间,且累计变形值将超过桥梁桩基础允许变形值;提出隔离桩和盾构隧道周围地层注浆加固2种保护措施。研究结果可为评估盾构隧道施工对邻近桥桩影响程度和制定邻近桥桩保护措施提供参考。     

Welfare Balance of Different Interest Groups During Rural-urban Land Conversion

Rural-urban land conversion is currently a common social economic phenomenon during the process of economic development and rural urbanization in China. Rural-urban land conversion is positively effective as far as social and economic benefits are concerned （Yang, 2002）, but its negative effect is also evident, resulting in such problems as low efficiency of rural land configuration and loss of social welfare. Consequently, farmers should also have an equal chance to enjoy the social welfare enhanced by land conversion. Based on the theories of welfare economy, this paper puts forward policy suggestions by discussing the welfare changes of various interest groups, builds the model of welfare distribution, and analyzes the conditions of maximizing social welfare. The absolute and opposite value of social welfare is closely related with the speed of rural-urban land conversion, and governments should give farmers and collectives fair compensation to make up for the utility loss caused by land expropriation, which are conclusions drawn from this paper. This study aims to provide a theoretical basis for regulating targets and evaluation criteria, realizing the mechanism and implementation of public polices during rural-urban land conversion.     

The Environmental “Risky” Region: Identifying Land Degradation Processes Through Integration of Socio-Economic and Ecological Indicators in a Multivariate Regionalization Model

The economic policy needs to pay increasingly more attention to the environmental issues, which requires the development of methodologies able to incorporate environmental, as well as macroeconomic, goals in the design of public policies. Starting from this observation, this article proposes a methodology based upon a Simonian satisficing logic made operational with the help of goal programming (GP) models, to address the joint design of macroeconomic and environmental policies. The methodology is applied to the Spanish economy, where a joint policy is elicited, taking into consideration macroeconomic goals (economic growth, inflation, unemployment, public deficit) and environmental goals (CO₂, NO _x and SO _x emissions) within the context of a computable general equilibrium model. The results show how the government can “fine-tune” its policy according to different criteria using GP models. The resulting policies aggregate the environmental and the economic goals in different ways: maximum aggregate performance, maximum balance and a lexicographic hierarchy of the goals.     

长三角城市群高质量绿色发展的均衡性特征及障碍因素

从绿色核心动力、环境基底、创新产业、发展绩效四个维度构建评价体系,运用CRITIC赋权、核密度估计、重心—标准差椭圆等方法,从均衡态、均衡度、均衡熵角度探讨长三角城市群高质量绿色发展的均衡状况,并分析其障碍因素。结果表明：（1）高质量绿色发展存在明显的空间差异,但未出现空间极化现象;总体格局呈西北—东南向,重心位于南北居中、东西偏东的位置。（2）高质量绿色发展总体水平较为均衡,但其中创新维度均衡度较低;城市内部均衡度存在明显的省域分化,沪苏浙城市明显优于安徽省内城市。均衡熵表明多数城市系统协调度有优势,具备一定发展潜力。（3）创新水平、环境质量、土地集约、现代产业等是高质量绿色发展普遍存在的障碍因素。坚持创新驱动,建设现代产业体系,加强国土空间治理是长三角城市群高质量绿色发展的紧迫任务。     

朱湖生态渔业研究

针对“合理利用农村资源,认真保护好水域生态环境”等问题进行了研究。根据试点实情,运用渔业生态工程,对系统内部结构进行了合理调整,不断调控生态平衡,组建成“以种植为基础,养殖为中心,沼气为纽带”的良性循环系统,促使生态渔业生产的协调发展,实现无污染环境,合理利用资源,获取持续最佳的生产力和生态经济效益。     

碳减排方案优化及其在产业升级中的效应研究

构建了包含能源消耗与碳排放的多行业动态一般均衡模型,研究发现,通过各行业的边际减排成本相等这一总体减排任务的合理分解方式,能够实现要素的优化配置并激发“创新补偿效应”,具有相对较高的增长效应与福利效应.分行业单独制定碳减排约束时的边际减排成本较高,且无法产生行业间减排的联动效应,因而总体减排方案是有效的.碳强度减排方案优化后,其在产业结构升级中的效应也十分明显.测算结果表明,碳减排对工业结构“重型化”的控制效应明显,还将农业减排的压力转化为“富碳农业”发展的动力,导致经济中农业占比上升.服务业企业通过增大劳动和资本等要素的投入替代产生高碳排放的能源要素,减缓碳减排政策对其生产行为的负向影响并实现了稳定增长.随着减排强度的加大,中国产业结构合理化和高度化程度得到了显著提升.     

干旱亚干旱区固体废弃物对非饱和土体污染的研究

鉴于以往用动力学法在研究非饱和土体水运动（移）问题时存在的具体困难，根据土壤水动力学原理和土壤水特性，从新的角度研究非饱和土体水运动和污染问题，给出了简便易行的水分平衡法基本计算式，提出了新的参数─—非饱和蒸发量（Ｅｆ）。简要介绍了水分平衡法在干旱区固体废物安全堆贮工程计算、污染预测及控制等方面的应用。     

化学放热系统热爆炸潜在危险性评价

讨论化学放热系统的热稳定性和临界条件,用化学反应物无消耗的假设推导化学放热系统热失控(热爆炸)时的动力学参数临界值,得到热失控的判据、临界点火温度和熄火温度。提出用系统安全指数概念来评价放热反应系统发生热爆炸的潜在危险性,分析化学放热系统的平衡域。用硝酸甲酯分解爆炸实例,说明如何利用安全指数对具有热爆炸可能性的系统的潜在危险性进行定量评价,其预测结果与实验结果一致。