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151.
Decision–support systems in the field of integrated water management could benefit considerably from social science knowledge,
as many environmental changes are human-induced. Unfortunately the adequate incorporation of qualitative social science concepts
in a quantitative modeling framework is not straightforward. The applicability of fuzzy set theory and fuzzy cognitive maps
for the integration of qualitative scenarios in a decision–support system was examined for the urbanization of the coastal
city of Ujung Pandang, Indonesia. The results indicate that both techniques are useful tools for the design of integrated
models based on a combination of concepts from the natural and social sciences.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
152.
This article measures the effect of an increase in productivityattributable to an increase in soil organic carbon associated with theincrease in the use of conservation practices in agriculture in theUnited States. Both the direct and indirect effects are calibrated. Theanalytical approach used consists of a dynamic computable generalequilibrium model composed of 14 producing sectors, 10 consumingsectors, seven household categories classified by income, and agovernment. The results suggest that the impact of a change inproductivity is an increase in output over a six year period starting in1998 in field crops. The most significant impact is felt in thelivestock sector. This is because field crops are a major input in theproduction of livestock. The food processing sector also exhibits arelatively large increase because of the increase in inputs of both fieldcrops and livestock. Manufacturing output increases primarily becauseoverall investment rises and most investment utilizes manufacturinggoods. The other producing sectors are generally unaffected by theincrease in agricultural production due to an increase in soil organiccarbon. Coincident with the increase in the production of field cropsis a relatively large decrease in the price of field crops. Othernoticeable price reductions occur in the livestock sector and the foodprocessing sector. For the consuming sectors, the consumption offood and alcohol and tobacco increase but consumption in all of theother sectors remains basically unchanged. Prices in the food andalcohol and tobacco sectors decline by about 1% while theprices in the other sectors remain static. Household welfare increasesin the aggregate by only 0.1% with this increase occurringuniformly across all household categories. Revenue received by thegovernment increases a modest 2% in response to an increase inoutput and, hence, an increase in taxes paid. The results indicate thatthere are significant production benefits for several sectors that can berealized by an increase in the use of conservation practices inagricultural production which, in turn, enhances soil organic carbon.There are a number of policy options available to promote the use ofconservation practices. These include education and technicalassistance, financial assistance, research and development, landretirement, and regulation and taxes. 相似文献
153.
Kimberly K. Smith 《Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Ethics》2009,22(3):241-256
Elizabeth Anderson’s “pluralist–expressivist” value theory, an alternative to the understanding of value and rationality underlying
the “rational actor” model of human behavior, provides rich resources for addressing questions of environmental and animal
ethics. It is particularly well-suited to help us think about the ethics of commodification, as I demonstrate in this critique
of the pet trade. I argue that Anderson’s approach identifies the proper grounds for criticizing the commodification of animals,
and directs our attention to the importance of maintaining social practices and institutions that respect the social meanings of animals. Her theory alone, however, does not adequately address the role of the state in this project. Drawing on social
contract theory to fill this gap, I conclude that the state’s role in regulating the pet trade should be limited to ensuring
the welfare of animals in the stream of commerce, not prohibiting their mass marketing altogether. 相似文献
154.
本文根据灰色关联分析的基本性质,提出一种环境质量综合评价的新方法。该方法用待评价样本各指标值组成参考数列,环境质量分级标准值组成被比较数列,通过计算参考数列与被比较数列的关联度,按最优关联识别原则综合评价环境质量等级。用4个实例与其它方法进行了对比,取得满意的效果。 相似文献
155.
Peter F. M. McLoughlin 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1988,24(3):599-607
ABSTRACT: Third World irrigation and drainage systems have experienced major declines recently in both capability and performance. This is due initially to working them well beyond their design capaci-capacities; scouring, sedimentation, and overtopping result. Chronic O&M underfunding then adds heavily to this worsening malaise. International donors have assisted irrigation departments with rehabilitation projects and programs to improve O&M effectiveness on a grand (billions of dollars) scale. Despite their historical propensity to examine, almost fastidiously, program economic justifications (B/C, IRR, etc), the donors apparently have glossed over two basic analytic elements for (a) more spending on O&M as distinct from an equivalent spending on other means to provide farmers with an m3 of water; and (b) different levels of O&M spending on canals and drains. Surely those different levels provide differing benefits, in total, and at the margin. Which level is most economic? This paper identifies these latter analytical issues, posits methodologies key to an O&M spending level analysis, and discusses the information base. Particular attention is paid to identifying relevant costs and benefits, and to suggesting supplementary criteria for O&M spending level selection. The paper is an exercise in delineation of an imminently practical area of irrigation engineering economics. 相似文献
156.
应用分形理论,研究了煤矿顶板运动过程中所表现的分形特征,提出了用顶板下沉速度的分数维值的变化预报顶板来压、冒落的方法,使得预报顶板来压、冒落的指标定量化成为可能,预报更加科学,把预报的理论与方法推进到新阶段。这对保障煤矿生产安全具有重要的应用价值。 相似文献
157.
A hierarchical approach to fisheries planning and modeling in the Columbia River Basin 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The Columbia River Basin is the scene of a massive effort to restore populations of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) and steelhead (O. mykiss). Efficient restoration is confounded by a high level of complexity, competing sociopolitical goals and values, and uncertainty
about key system properties. Simulation models and other tools of systems analysis are important to development of a comprehensive,
regionally acceptable strategy. Hierarchy theory provides a useful paradigm for organized complexity within the Columbia Basin
and the basis for a trilevel hierarchical structure for organizing and integrating models. Life-stage models compose the most
basic simulation units at the lowest level in the proposed hierarchical modeling structure. Each life-stage model simulates
a distinct period in the life cycle of anadromous salmonids. Population models at the intermediate level simulate the complete
life cycles of salmon and steelhead populations. At the highest level in the hierarchy, interpopulation models simulate extensive,
long-term processes that affect multiple species and stocks. A hierarchical system of models is preferable to a single model
or to a group of models lacking formal structure. A principal advantage is that models have the correct spatial and temporal
resolution for analyzing questions at different scales. A hierarchical structure also facilitates the flow of information
among models, and aids in understanding the impacts of uncertainty. Constructing a hierarchy of models should involve both
bottom-up and top-down perspectives that maintain logical consistency among models, while allowing unique model structures
appropriate for each level in the hierarchy. 相似文献
158.
地球系统是宇宙系统的全息缩影,地球上的灾害和天体之间具有全息关系,同样有恒定的周期性。本文根据全息理论对灾害进行分析预测,并建议在灾害研究中应用全息理论. 相似文献
159.
分形块体理论及其在三峡高边坡稳定分析中的应用 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
把分形几何与块体理论相结合,提出了分形块体理论,建立了分形块体理论赤平解析法,并将其应用于三峡永久船闸高边坡稳定性分析中。结果表明:分形块体理论符合工程实际,是分析裂隙岩体工程稳定性行之有效的可靠方法。 相似文献
160.
Brian G. Field 《Journal of Environmental Planning and Management》1984,27(2):68-78
This paper focuses on the development plan activities of the London Boroughs and simply seeks to explain the relatively limited progress that has been made in the preparation and adoption of statutory local plans, by showing how production was constrained as local planners were caught up in the shifting ground of contemporary planning theory. The author suggests that uncertainty about the acceptable scope and content of local plans, at a time when planners were being encouraged to extend the emphasis of their work beyond the purely physical, led to serious problems as planners began to experiment with new approaches to local planning but failed to appreciate the operational implications of each approach. 相似文献