考虑边界条件不确定性的地下水污染风险分析

为分析边界条件不确定性对地下水污染质运移数值模拟模型输出结果的影响,运用Monte Carlo方法对一算例进行阐明,并从污染风险预报方面对模拟结果进行分析.为减少重复调用模拟模型产生的大量计算负荷,将边界条件（第一类边界条件-水头值）作为随机变量,建立地下水污染质运移数值模拟模型的Kriging替代模型,在保证较高精度的同时,实现了Monte Carlo模拟.结果表明：边界条件的不确定性,对地下水污染质运移数值模拟模型预报的结果有很大影响,考虑与未考虑边界条件不确定性得到的研究区污染羽分布差别较大.对地下水污染质运移数值模拟模型的Monte Carlo模拟结果进行统计与分析,可以评估研究区观测井1,2,3污染物浓度预报结果的可靠程度,并且可以预报出研究区观测井1,2,3遭受不同程度污染的风险.     

基于空间适宜性评价和人口承载力的贵溪市中心城区城市开发边界的划定

城市开发边界的划定能够合理引导城市空间的有序发展,控制其无序蔓延。论文以典型的资源型城市贵溪市为研究区,从空间适宜性评价、人口承载力、城市规模以及城市总体规划和土地利用总体规划（简称“两规”）衔接等方面探索有效的城市开发边界划定方法。空间适宜性评价综合考虑自然、空间可达性和生态条件,运用聚类分析法确定区域内不宜作为开发建设的生态底线区域和适宜建设开发区域的高低等级,以此确定城市开发边界的发展方向。通过灰色预测GM(1,1)模型预测研究区2020年人口总量,并基于土地资源和水资源承载力验证当地所能容纳的最大人口总量,同时确定城市规模和划定城市开发边界。以空间适宜性评价、人口承载力、城市规模预测、两规衔接和空间形态控制等方法倒逼缩减建设用地,从而划定城市发展的刚性和弹性增长边界。     

综合生态安全格局构建与城市扩张模拟的城市增长边界划定——以天水市规划区（2015—2030年）为例

传统的城市增长边界划定方法,一般仅考虑生态安全格局,并未考虑在现有客观条件下的城市扩张趋势,划定结果具有一定的主观性;或仅对城市的扩张进行模拟,忽略了城市的生态安全问题。针对上述问题,论文通过耦合城市综合生态安全格局与基于CA_Markov模型的城市扩张模拟结果,提出了一种新的城市增长边界划定方法:首先,合理选取因子构建研究区的综合生态安全格局,利用禁建区对综合生态安全格局的结果进行修正,获得研究区的刚性增长边界;其次,合理选取城市扩张驱动因子,通过CA_Markov模型预测城市扩张边界;最后,综合考虑刚性增长边界、模拟获得的城市扩张边界及近期城市拓展方案等,获得最终的城市增长边界。并以天水市规划区（2015—2030）为案例,对方法的科学性进行了说明。结果表明,论文划定的城市增长边界内总面积370.56 km²,占规划区总面积的7.7%。此方法能够有效解决城市增长与生态保护之间的矛盾,对河谷型城市等建设用地匮乏、生态环境脆弱城市的增长边界划定具有良好的应用价值,也可为其他类型城市的城市增长边界划定提供参考。     

大连金州地区海陆风及热内边界层研究

根据大连金州2009年常规气象站资料分析大连金州地区海陆风变化特征,并用MM5V3模式模拟典型日的海陆风风场变化和热内边界层位温场结构变化,结果表明:海风和陆风出现的频率有明显的季节性变化。冬季陆风较多,春夏海风较多,春季、冬季易形成海陆风;海风起止时间夏季长冬季短,陆风起止时间秋冬季较夏季长;典型海陆风日中,海风造成陆地湿度变大,海风风速大于陆风风速;通过海风的数值模拟,海风由生成到成熟海岸吹向内陆其厚度可增厚到1 000 m以上,伸向内陆距离可到18.9 km;热内边界层向内陆呈舌状分布,海岸边界层高度在700 m之间,抛物面高度随着向内陆延伸的距离增加而升高。热内边界层最高达1 000 m。     

二维无压稳定渗流分析的改进方法

人类发展演变过程中,经历了各种各样的地质作用所造成的灾害,其中大部分地质灾害的形成都有地下水的参与,因而确定地质体稳定性时不能忽略地下水。无压渗流是比较复杂的非线性问题,难点在于如何求自由面, 尤其是对溢出点的求解一直没有很好的解决。本文提出了求解无压渗流自由面的一种新方法,在采用等效渗透系数法搜索到自由面后,通过反复移动溢出点再次搜索自由面,最终达到准确求解自由面的目的。实例证明该方法是简单准确有效的。本方法对解决工程问题具有一定的实际意义。     

Changes in earth’s dipole

The dipole moment of Earth’s magnetic field has decreased by nearly over the past 150 years and by about 30% over the past 2,000 years according to archeomagnetic measurements. Here, we explore the causes and the implications of this rapid change. Maps of the geomagnetic field on the core–mantle boundary derived from ground-based and satellite measurements reveal that most of the present episode of dipole moment decrease originates in the southern hemisphere. Weakening and equatorward advection of normal polarity magnetic field by the core flow, combined with proliferation and growth of regions where the magnetic polarity is reversed, are reducing the dipole moment on the core–mantle boundary. Growth of these reversed flux regions has occurred over the past century or longer and is associated with the expansion of the South Atlantic Anomaly, a low-intensity region in the geomagnetic field that presents a radiation hazard at satellite altitudes. We address the speculation that the present episode of dipole moment decrease is a precursor to the next geomagnetic polarity reversal. The paleomagnetic record contains a broad spectrum of dipole moment fluctuations with polarity reversals typically occurring during dipole moment lows. However, the dipole moment is stronger today than its long time average, indicating that polarity reversal is not likely unless the current episode of moment decrease continues for a thousand years or more.     

Insights into multidimensional transport flux from vertical observation and numerical simulation in two cities in North China

This study represents the first quantitative evaluation of pollution transport budget within the boundary layer of typical cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region from the perspective of horizontal and vertical exchanges and further discusses the impact of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL)-free troposphere (FT) exchange on concentration of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) within the ABL during heavy pollution. From the perspective of the transport flux balance relationship, differences in pollution transport characteristics between the two cities is mainly reflected in the ABL-FT exchange effect. The FT mainly flowed into the ABL in BJ, while in SJZ, the outflow from the ABL to the FT was more intense. Combined with an analysis of vertical wind profile distribution, BJ was found to be more susceptible to the influence of northwest cold high prevailing in winter, while sinking of strong cold air allowed the FT flowing into the ABL influence the vertical exchange over BJ. In addition, we selected a typical pollution event for targeted analysis to understand mechanistic details of the influence of ABL-FT exchange on the pollution event. These results showed that ABL-FT interaction played an important role in PM_2.5 concentration within the ABL during heavy pollution. Especially in the early stage of heavy pollution, FT transport contributed as much as 82.74% of PM_2.5 within the ABL. These findings are significant for improving our understanding of pollution transport characteristics within the boundary layer and the effect of ABL-FT exchange on air quality.     

天山北坡区域大气污染特征及冬季重污染成因分析—以石河子市为例

以天山北坡典型代表城市石河子市为例,基于地面常规污染物浓度监测、气象观测、激光雷达观测及中尺度气象模型(WRF)模拟资料,综合分析了气象条件和边界层结构变化对空气质量的影响。结果表明：以石河子市为代表的天山北坡地区空气质量季节性差异显著,PM_2.5浓度在冬、夏两季相差最高达11.4倍,且冬季（12月—次年2月）大气污染发生率高达81.2%,重度及以上污染天气占59.1%。冬季污染呈连续“污染季”变化特征,在2020—2021年冬季发生的4次重污染过程中,每次重污染过程持续时间为7~27 d,间隔仅1~3 d,各过程均以PM_2.5污染为主导,PM_2.5峰值浓度为373~425 μg/m³,PM_2.5/PM₁₀均值为0.82。进入秋冬季后,地面连续低温、高湿的气象条件对PM_2.5浓度的增长有显著促进作用,以温度<−3 ℃和65%<相对湿度<92%为主要影响条件,在该条件下边界层高度的显著降低和连续强逆温引起的近地扩散条件转差,是冬“污染季”形成的根本原因。在2021年1月16—22日重污染过程期间,地面为持续低温、高湿、微/静风状态,重污染生消仅随边界层和逆温条件改变,其中污染累积时段边界层高度较清洁时段降低近5倍,逆温强度超过1.5 ℃/(100 m),后续由逆温的减退和边界层抬升带来3 d清洁天气。

     

Will Simplified Modalities and Procedures Make More Small-Scale Forestry Projects Viable Under the Clean Development Mechanism?

Simplified modalities and procedures (M&P) are expected to increase the viability of small-scale project activities under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). A small-scale afforestation or reforestation (AR) project is defined as a project removing less than 8 kilotons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) per year. Depending on the project type and the method for measuring scale, 8 kilotons of CO₂e per year correspond to highly diverse areas, possibly ranging from 200 to 6000 ha. Using a model to calculate the minimum project scale above which the CDM is a positive financial incentive for eligible AR project activities, the paper analyzes whether a reduction of transaction costs under simplified M&P will be a sufficient incentive to motivate small-scale participation in the CDM. Model results show that, even under optimistic assumptions on carbon market conditions and transaction costs, small-scale project activities will not benefit from simplified M&P. Results also show that project activities removing more than 8 kilotons of CO₂e per year and registered as small-scale would be the ones that could benefit the most from simplified M&P. It is concluded that the participation of small-scale project activities to the CDM requires more than simplified M&P, the price of expiring Certified Emission Reductions being one of the most critical parameters.     

佛山地区干季边界层垂直风温结构对空气质量的影响

利用佛山地区2013年12月大气边界层观测试验得到的垂直风温资料和相应逐日AQI资料、逐时PM_(2.5)浓度资料,研究了佛山地区大气边界层垂直风温结构对空气质量的影响.结果表明:佛山地区干季持续存在的逆温结构是导致PM_(2.5)污染较重的重要原因.干季污染日近60%的最低逆温层高度低于1000 m,而非污染日低于1000 m的最低逆温层仅占36%,污染日佛山贴地逆温频率高达31.2%.逆温层出现高度较低,将污染物压缩积累在贴地层大气中导致污染较重.在大陆冷高压控制下,佛山地区的边界层结构演化非常典型,最大边界层高度和最大边界层通风量表现出了显著相关,污染日日平均边界层高度始终维持在较低的水平,多数时候不足500 m,最大边界层高度则大部分小于1000 m,日平均边界层通风量主要分布在500~1500 m~2·s~(-1)之间,在极端情况下甚至不足300 m~2·s~(-1),最大边界层通风量大部分处于1500~5000 m~2·s~(-1)之间,导致污染物始终聚集在较低的大气边界层内,使得PM_(2.5)浓度长时间维持在较高的污染水平.佛山地区风场存在显著的3层结构,较小的底层风速意味着大气的输送和扩散能力较弱,高度较低的中层使得污染物进一步被压缩累积在大气底层,垂直风场的不稳定性使得污染日佛山地区局地回流活跃,回流(RF)指数极小值多分布在0.2~0.4之间,污染日RF指数普遍小于非污染日,垂直风场的有效输送能力被显著削弱.