Analysing the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrology models

Recently, the New Morris Method has been presented as an effective sensitivity analysis tool for mathematical models. The New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity of an output parameter to a given set of input parameters (first-order effects) and the extent these parameters interact with each other (second-order effects). This method requires the specification of two parameters (runs and resolution) that control the sampling of the output parameter to determine its sensitivity to various inputs. The criteria for these parameters have been set on the analysis of a well-behaved analytical function (see Cropp and Braddock, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 78:77–83, 2002), which may not be applicable to other physical models that describe complex processes. This paper will investigate the appropriateness of the criteria from (Cropp and Braddock, 2002) and hence the effectiveness of the New Morris Method to determine the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrologic models: the Soil Erosion and Deposition System and Griffith University Representation of Urban Hydrology. In the first case, this paper will separately analyse the sensitivity of an output parameter on a set of input parameters (first- and second-order effects) for each model and discuss the physical meaning of these sensitivities. This will be followed by an investigation into the sampling criteria by exploring the convergence of the sensitivity behaviour for each model as the sampling of the parameter space is increased. By comparing these trends to the convergence behaviour from Cropp and Braddock (2002), we will determine how well the New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity for each model and whether the sampling criteria are appropriate for these models. It will be shown that the New Morris Method can provide additional insight into the functioning of these models, and that, under a different metric, the sensitivity behaviour of these models does converge confirming the sampling criteria set by Cropp and Braddock.     

Evaluating China's Slope Land Conversion Program as sustainable management in Tianquan and Wuqi Counties

Increased soil erosion on sloped land has become a significant environmental concern in China that has been attributed to human activities such as deforestation, over-cultivation, and over-grazing of livestock. In order to reduce soil erosion on sloped lands, the Chinese government has responded by implementing large-scale, ecological rehabilitation programs, including the "Grain for Green" reforestation project. This program involves financial incentives to transition farmers into other economic activities with the goal of reducing ecological pressures and degradation. Because of the scope and potential impacts from these programs, detailed research is needed to understand their social and ecological effects. This paper reports on research conducted in Tianquan County, Sichuan Province, and Wuqi County, Shaanxi Province, that evaluates the effects of the program upon local economies and household livelihood systems. The paper argues that the successful conversion of farmland under "Grain for Green" depends upon local government involvement, local economic development, and funding for local projects. Without economic development within rural economies, we conclude that farmers will remain dependent upon continued subsidy assistance to meet the policy's ambitious environmental restrictions, thereby undermining the program's long-term sustainability.     

Assessing conservation opportunity on private land: socio-economic, behavioral, and spatial dimensions

This study presents a method for assessing conservation opportunity on private land based on landholders' socio-economic, behavioral, and farm characteristics. These characteristics include age, gender, education, level of off-farm income, farm size, proportion of remnant native vegetation on-farm, and ecological value of native vegetation on-farm. A sample of landholders who own greater than 2 ha of land in the South Australian Murray-Darling Basin region were sent a mail-based survey about their values and preferences for environmental management (N = 659, 52% response). Cross-tabulations and ANOVA statistical analysis techniques were used to compare the socio-economic attributes across three landholder classes: disengaged, moderately engaged, and highly engaged in native vegetation planting. Results indicate that highly engaged landholders were more likely to be female, formally educated, hobby farmers who managed small parcels of land and have high off-farm incomes, whereas disengaged landholders held significantly stronger farming connections (more farming experience, family have lived on the farm for more generations). Spatial analysis revealed area-specific differences in conservation opportunity and conservation priority. In some areas, properties of high ecological value were managed by highly engaged landholders, but nearby properties of high value were managed by moderately engaged or disengaged landholders. Environmental managers therefore cannot assume areas of high conservation priority will be areas of high conservation opportunity. At the regional scale, the potential for revegetation seems most promising within the moderately engaged landholder group considering the vast amount of land managed by this group in areas of high ecological value, particularly within the less represented Mallee and Coorong and Rangelands sub-regions. We suggest that incentive schemes which purchase conservation need to be targeted at disengaged landholders; mentoring schemes led by commercial farmers highly engaged in native vegetation planting should be directed at moderately engaged landholders, and; awards programs which acknowledge conservation successes should be targeted at highly engaged landholders.     

Analysis of behavioral changes of zebrafish (Danio rerio) in response to formaldehyde using Self-organizing map and a hidden Markov model

Two computational methods were applied to classification of movement patterns of zebrafish (Danio rerio) to elucidate Markov processes in behavioral changes before and after treatment of formaldehyde (0.1 mg/L) in semi-natural conditions. The complex data of the movement tracks were initially classified by the Self-organizing map (SOM) to present different behavioral states of test individuals. Transition probabilities between behavioral states were further evaluated to fit Markov processes by using the hidden Markov model (HMM). Emission transition probability was also obtained from the observed variables (i.e., speed) for training with the HMM. Experimental transition and emission probability matrices were successfully estimated with the HMM for recognizing sequences of behavioral states with accuracy rates in acceptable ranges at central and boundary zones before (77.3-81.2%) and after (70.1-76.5%) treatment. A heuristic algorithm and a Markov model were efficiently combined to analyze movement patterns and could be a means of in situ behavioral monitoring tool.     

Effects of alfalfa coverage on runoff, erosion and hydraulic characteristics of overland flow on loess slope plots

An evaluation of the interactions between vegetation, overland and soil erosion can provide valuable insight for the conservation of soil and water. An experiment was conducted to study water infiltration, runoff generation process, rate of sediment erosion, and hydrodynamic characteristics of overland flow from a sloping hillside with different draw-off discharges from alfalfa and control plots with 20° slope. The effect of alfalfa on runoff and sediment transport reduction was quantitatively analyzed. Alfalfa was discussed for its ability to reduce the overland flow scouring force or change the runoff movement. Compared to the bare-soil plots, alfalfa plots generated a 1.77 times increase in infiltration rate. Furthermore, the down-slope water infiltration rate for the bare soil plots was higher than in the up-slope, while the opposite was found in the alfalfa plots. In addition, alfalfa had a significant effect on runoff and sediment yield. In comparison to the control, the runoff coefficient and sediment transportation rate decreased by 28.3% and 78.4% in the grass slope, respectively. The runoff generated from the alfalfa and bare-soil plots had similar trends with an initial increase and subsequent leveling to a steady-state rate. The transport of sediment reduced with time as a consequence of the depletion of loose surface materials. The maximum sediment concentration was recorded within the first few minutes of each event. The alfalfa plots had subcritical flow while the bare-soil plots had supercritical flow, which indicate that the capability of the alfalfa slope for resisting soil erosion and sediment movement was greater than for bare soil plots. Moreover, the flow resistance coefficient and roughness coefficient for the alfalfa plots were both higher than for the bare-soil plots, which indicate that overland flow in alfalfa plots had retarded and was blocked, and the flow energy along the runoff path had gradually dissipated. Finally, the ability to erode and transport sediment had decreased.     

Ecological niche and phylogeny: the highly complex echolocation behavior of the trawling long-legged bat, Macrophyllum macrophyllum

Bats produce echolocation signals that reflect the sensory tasks they perform. In open air or over water, bats encounter few or no background echoes (clutter). Echolocation of such bats is the primary cue for prey perception and varies with the stage of approach to prey, typically comprising search, approach, and terminal group calls. In contrast, bats that glean stationary food from rough surfaces emit more uniform calls without a distinct terminal group. They use echolocation primarily for orientation in space and mostly need additional sensory cues for finding food because clutter echoes overlap strongly with food echoes. Macrophyllum macrophyllum is the only Neotropical leaf-nosed bat (Phyllostomidae) that hunts in clutter-poor habitat over water. As such, we hypothesized that, unlike all other members of its family, but similar to other trawling and aerial insectivorous bats, M. macrophyllum can hunt successfully by using only echolocation for prey perception. In controlled behavioral experiments on Barro Colorado Island, Panamá, we confirmed that echolocation alone is sufficient for finding prey in M. macrophyllum. Furthermore, we showed that pattern and structure of echolocation signals in M. macrophyllum are more similar to aerial and other trawling insectivorous bats than to close phylogenetic relatives. Particularly unique among phyllostomid bats, we found distinct search, approach, and terminal group calls in foraging M. macrophyllum. Call structure, however, consisting of short, multiharmonic, and steep frequency-modulated signals, closely resembled those of other phyllostomid bats. Thus, echolocation behavior in M. macrophyllum is shaped by ecological niche as well as by phylogeny.     

Effects of Climate and Land-Use Change on Species Abundance in a Central European Bird Community

Abstract:  Although it is known that changes in land use and climate have an impact on ecological communities, it is unclear which of these factors is currently most important. We sought to determine the influence of land-use and climate alteration on changes in the abundance of Central European birds. We examined the impact of these factors by contrasting abundance changes of birds of different breeding habitat, latitudinal distribution, and migratory behavior. We examined data from the semiquantitative Breeding Bird Atlas of Lake Constance, which borders Germany, Switzerland, and Austria. Changes in the regional abundance of the 159 coexisting bird species from 1980–1981 to 2000–2002 were influenced by all three factors. Farmland birds, species with northerly ranges, and long-distance migrants declined, and wetland birds and species with southerly ranges increased in abundance. A separate analysis of the two decades between 1980–1981 and 1990–1992 and between 1990–1992 and 2000–2002 showed that the impact of climate change increased significantly over time. Latitudinal distribution was not significant in the first decade and became the most significant predictor of abundance changes in the second decade. Although the spatial scale and temporal resolution of our study is limited, this is the first study that suggests that climate change has overtaken land-use modification in determining population trends of Central European birds.     

Unusual echolocation behavior in a small molossid bat, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Molossops temminckii,</Emphasis> that forages near background clutter

When searching for flying insects, Molossops temminckii uses unusual echolocation calls characterized by upward modulation of frequency vs time (UFM). Call frequency increases asymptotically in the relatively long (∼8 ms) pulses from a starting frequency of ∼40 kHz to a long narrowband tail at ∼50 kHz. When approaching a prey, the bat progressively increases the duration of calls and intersperses in the sequence broadband downwardly frequency-modulated signals with a terminal frequency of about 53 kHz, which totally replaces the UFM signals at the end of the approach phase. The sequence progresses to a capture buzz resembling those from other molossid and vespertilionid bats. The M. temminckii wing morphology is characterized by an average aspect ratio and a high wing loading, suggesting that it is more maneuverable than the typical Molossidae but less than typical Vespertilionidae. M. temminckii regularly forages near clutter, where it needs to pay attention to the background and might face forward and backward masking of signals. We hypothesize that the UFM echolocation signals of M. temminckii represent an adaptation to foraging near background clutter in a not very maneuverable bat needing a broad attention window. The broadband component of the signal might serve for the perception of the background and the narrowband tail for detection and perhaps classification of prey. Bats may solve the signal masking problems by separating emission and echoes in the frequency domain. The echolocation behavior of M. temminckii may shed light on the evolution of the narrowband frequency analysis echolocation systems adopted by some bats foraging within clutter.     

环境问题与"可持续发展"道路存在的误区

环境问题本质是人的问题,具体表现于人口问题和人的德行问题。文章认为导致我们系列环境政策没有起到预想结果的原因在于我们"德行"中存在的认识误区,分析了这些认识误区;提出解决环境问题的根本途径是改造我们的"德行"并知道我们生活在地球"极限之内"。     

Onsets of schooling behavior and social transmission in chub mackerel Scomber japonicus

Grouping behavior has various types of antipredator functions. Some of these functions require social transmission of information, such as the many-eyes effect, whereas others do not, such as the dilution and confusion effects. Functions of grouping behavior would enhance with social transmission among group members. We investigated and compared the onsets of schooling behavior and social transmission of information in chub mackerel Scomber japonicus. Onset of schooling behavior was observed in rearing tanks by calculating the degree of parallel swimming. Onset of social transmission was examined by using visual cues from conspecifics. A group of five individuals was put in each of three experimental chambers from which they could see a group of conspecifics in the neighboring chamber. A weak electric stimulus was given to one of these chambers, and information transfer among individuals was observed. We found that social transmission by visual cues started on 30 days posthatching (25.1 mm in standard length), which was 2 weeks after the onset of schooling behavior. The late onset of social transmission relative to schooling behavior might be attributed to different predation pressure with development, or by underdevelopment of optic tectum, as the volume of the optic tectum did not increase just after the onset of schooling behavior.