基于非对称演化博弈的应急疏散人员行为冲突研究

为了真实地描述紧急疏散过程中人员行为冲突的演化过程,提高疏散效率,基于非对称性演化博弈模型,首先,从生理角度出发,界定人员之间的非对称性;其次,基于非对称性“鹰鸽博弈”模型,探析各人员策略选择的规律,分析非对称性因子、冲突的成本收益对系统稳定与合作状态概率的影响;最后,在此基础上,探讨博弈双方的合作心理收益对系统演化的影响。研究结果表明：非对称性因子越大,冲突的单位成本越小,越有利于人员合作行为的演化;较大的合作心理收益促使双方开展合作。非对称性“鹰鸽博弈”模型揭示应急疏散情形下人员冲突行为的演化规律,为推动疏散人员开展合作,减少冲突,提高突发事件下的疏散效率提供参考。     

港口危险货物装卸作业人员安全行为能力影响因素研究

为全面加强港口危险货物装卸安全管理工作,促进危险货物安全生产形势持续稳定好转,以江苏省危险货物水路运输企业为依托,在文献调研和专家咨询的基础上,提出港口危险货物装卸作业人员安全行为能力影响因素基本模型;以问卷调查的方式评测安全行为能力影响因素,运用SPSS软件对问卷进行信度、效度检验;最后基于问卷检验结果和基本模型,构...     

身管内膛热化学-机械烧蚀磨损数值计算

目的 探究身管烧蚀和机械磨损的作用机理,完善身管热化学–机械烧蚀磨损模型,指导身管寿命预测和结构设计。方法 以弹炮耦合系统摩擦行为为切入点,提出一种计及摩擦热的热化学烧蚀材料退化模型。基于Archard磨损理论和动压润滑原理,以动压润滑摩擦替换传统弹炮耦合过程采用的干摩擦,提出一种身管机械磨损材料退化模型。结果 身管内膛烧蚀磨损主要集中在坡膛和炮口位置,500发射击后坡膛位置最大径向、周向烧蚀量分别为1.3、0.8mm,炮口位置最大径向、周向机械磨损量分别为0.32、0.26mm。结论材料退化模型能够较为准确地描述弹炮耦合系统中身管内膛的烧蚀磨损特性。数值模拟结果与实际膛线烧蚀磨损具备较好的一致性。     

基于MICP技术的再生骨料改性研究综述

分析总结了微生物矿化技术对再生骨料堆积密度、吸水率、压碎指标3个方面性能的影响,结果显示,微生物矿化技术处理后的再生骨料物理力学性能有明显改善,且改善效果与微生物活性和处理时间有重要关联.     

徐州市主城区个人生态足迹空间变异性研究

为揭示徐州市主城区个人生态足迹的空间变异性并分析引起其空间变异的原因,采用问卷调查和克里格插值法对个人生态足迹及其组分的空间分布进行了分析。结果表明:①徐州市主城区个人生态足迹分别是中国和全球个人生态足迹的1.48倍和1.18倍,其中商品服务足迹所占比例最大(51.1%),徐州市主城区处于弱不可持续发展状态;②经过实验半变异函数交叉验证,球状、指数和高斯模型可以较好模拟个人生态足迹及其组分的空间变异,其中,个人生态足迹、住宅足迹和商品服务足迹的块基比均小于25%,表现出强烈的空间相关性,碳足迹和食物足迹处于25%至75%之间,表现出中等空间相关性;③个人生态足迹、碳足迹、食物足迹和商品服务足迹总体上呈南高北低趋势,以市中心为峰值逐渐向周围递减,住宅足迹呈多峰值分布,最高值位于远离市中心的郊区。对个人生态足迹及其驱动因素进行空间相关分析,发现,调查对象的社会经济背景和空间特征对个人生态足迹及其组分的空间变异特征具有重要影响。     

民航人因失误分类框架

人因失误分类是否系统、完整及对人误描述是否一致直接影响人误分析的结果。本文对民航中主要几种人误分析方法进行了详细评述,指出其在考虑人的认知过程和行为外在表现形式方面的不足。在对现有人误理论模型和人误分类方法详细分析的基础上,提出了民航人误分类框架。框架由人的行为过程的四个阶段“获取信息-分析处理信息-决策／计划-执行”和八类人误模式及相应的子模式构成。行为阶段与人误模式可针对具体活动进行组合,框架的使用具有灵活性。框架对保证民航中人误辨识结果的规范性和准确性具有重要意义。     

大连区域自然生态系统敏感性评价的研究

对大连土壤侵蚀敏感性和蛇岛老铁山区综合敏感性进行了评价。土壤侵蚀敏感性评价结果表明:大连市中部地区和西北部小部分地区属于微度敏感;西部及东部地区属轻度敏感;北部与东北部大部分地区属于强度敏感。蛇岛老铁山自然生态系统老铁山区敏感性综合评价指数为5.5,九头山区敏感性综合评价指数为3.0,农田村落区敏感性综合评价指数为4.1。蛇岛老铁山自然生态系统老铁山区属重度敏感。     

EVALUATION OF EROSION CONTROL PRODUCTS WITH AND WITHOUT ADDED POLYACRYLAMIDE1

ABSTRACT: Polyacrylamide (PAM) has been demonstrated to greatly reduce erosion in furrow irrigation, but much less is known about its effectiveness on the much steeper slopes typical of construction sites. The purpose of this study was to determine if anionic PAM would enhance erosion control either alone on bare soil or in combination with four types of ground covers commonly used for grass establishment: straw, straw erosion control blanket (ECB), wood fiber, and mechanically bonded fiber matrix (MBFM). Tests were conducted under natural rainfall and vegetation on a 4 percent slope (bare soil, straw, ECB, and MBFM) or using a rainfall simulator (bare soil, straw, wood fiber, MBFM) on either 10 percent or 20 percent slope on three different soil substrates. All ground cover treatments were evaluated with and without PAM applied in solution at 19 kg/ha. The straw, ECB, and MBFM significantly reduced runoff volume, average turbidity, and total sediment lost over five rainfall events on the vegetated plots. The addition of PAM to ground covers only occasionally had significant effects on runoff parameters but did significantly increase vegetative coverage overall. The rainfall simulator tests produced similar results after four events, with the straw, wood fiber, and MBFM all having significantly lower turbidity than the bare soil. The PAM significantly reduced turbidity for both the first and second events but did not consistently improve runoff quality after multiple rainfall events for any ground cover‐soil combinations tested. Separate tests of PAM applied before or after straw did not indicate a clear advantage of either approach, but runoff turbidity was often significantly reduced with PAM, especially at the 20 percent slope. Turbidity reductions were attributed to flocculation of eroded sediment.     

WATER QUALITY IMPACTS OF CONSERVATION AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES IN THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA1

ABSTRACT: Nonpoint pollution in the form of runoff generated by conventional agricultural practices is one of the major sources of environmental degradation of surface water bodies. Agricultural conservation practices including no‐tillage operations have been introduced as alternatives to cope with such challenges. This study attempts to examine the economic and environmental impacts of no‐tillage as compared to conventional agricultural practices for cotton, soybeans and corn cultivated in the Mississippi Delta. Impacts in the form of sediment, nutrient and pesticide runoff at farm level are investigated, using the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC).