土层地震反应分析的地面加速度峰值计算研究

针对不同的工程场地采用20组相互独立的基岩加速度时程作为输入地震波,对广东省307个项目的地震安全性评价中的662个地震钻孔剖面进行土层地震反应分析,用相对均方误差来定量评估所得到的地面加速度峰值离散值,发现地面加速度峰值的计算结果具有很大的离散性,最大相对均方误差为19%,平均相对均方误差为7.53%;地震基本烈度高的地区比地震基本烈度低的地区的相对均方误差大,场地类别差的比场地类别好的相对均方误差大;目前较为普遍地用1条或3条基岩加速度时程作为地震动输入是明显不够的,应适当地增加,对于高烈度地区和场地类别较差的场地更是如此,才能得到较为合理的地面加速度峰值。     

基于灰色系统理论的煤矿人因事故关键因素分析

通过对煤矿人因失误事故致因因素进行分析,统计出相关的关键影响因素,运用灰色系统关联理论,根据国家安监局近十年煤矿事故统计数据,对煤矿人因失误事故影响类型进行了分析。以煤矿事故发生起数和事故死亡人数作为参考指标,计算和分析行为失误致因、个人违章、组织管理失误等十项主要与煤矿人因事故相关的灰色关联度,进而推算出这些因素的灰色关联序,确定出导致煤矿人因失误事故的关键因素,最终得到煤矿人因事故与关键影响因素之间的定量化分析结果。采用灰色关联理论对煤矿人因失误影响因素进行分析,能够很好地说明人因失误与各关键影响因素之间的权重关系,对煤矿人因事故主致因机理有更加深刻的理解,为煤矿事故的预防和控制提供重要的参考依据。     

基于事故/事件的民机人因防错设计关键因素研究

针对民机人因防错设计对飞行安全的影响,从世界民航安全事故/事件数据库中筛选出92起典型的人为因素事故案例,采用基元事件分析法进行深度分析,提炼出民机人因防错设计需要考虑的重要设计因素,并建立重要设计因素集。基于系统工程学的“人机环”模型,结合国内外飞机设计相关标准,建立民机人因防错设计重要因素指标体系。运用模糊层次分析法对因素指标进行权重计算,确立影响飞行安全的14项人因防错设计关键因素,并针对这些关键因素提出民机人因防错设计通用要求,以期为民机人因防错设计满足初始适航要求提供参考。     

环境分析实验室管理样的含量估计及其应用

本文对自制管理样的定值及应用做了描述,样品采自新疆吐鲁番地区红、黄壤土,分析定值采用内检、外检方式,数据经统计检验处理,以多组均值求得总平均值作为元素的含量估计值,用±2S表示测量的单项不确定度.在土壤背景值研究等工作中应用的结果,各元素相对标准偏差(RSD)为:汞、镉大于 10％,铜、铅、锌、镍、氟均小于 10％。     

钢筋混凝土板弯曲问题的各向同性化最小平方误差法

利用合适的坐标变换将钢筋混凝土板的弯曲问题变换为各向同性板弯曲问题。由弹性薄板的虚功原理及最小平方误差法计算各向同性板弯曲变形,得到原正交各向异性薄板的挠度方程。算例表明,在近似函数选取合理的情况下,该方法简单,计算时间短,具有较高的精确度。     

基于第三类危险源的风险管理计划研究

以安全管理理论、组织理论、风险管理理论为基础,在对多家煤矿实地调研的基础上,提出第三类危险源是造成组织失误的根本原因,预防第三类危险源的根本方法是编制风险管理计划;实例分析了陈家山矿某巷道实施风险管理整个过程,通过风险管理计划实施与运用,检查危险源是否在可接受风险水平下得到控制。风险管理可以对危险源的风险状态持续的检查,发现问题及时纠正,使危险源的风险状态降级,以便消除危险源。根据风险管理计划进行煤矿安全组织风险预警,其目的是为了保证煤矿安全管理组织活动处于安全、可靠的运行状态,并预测、监控、纠正各种不安全行为。陈家山矿风险管理研究对预防组织失误有现实意义。     

航空维修人为差错的行为特点分析及对策

主要从行为科学的基本理论出发，通过对航空维修人为差错的统计分析，寻求人为差错的行为类型、特点及预防人为差错的基本对策     

PRECISE WATER VELOCITY MEASUREMENTS USING PHOTOGRAMMETRIC TECHNIQUES1

ABSTRACT Necessary input parameters for studying mixing zone characteristics of thermal plumes are horizontal surface and subsurface water velocities. Using time lapse aerial photography and analytical photogrammetric techniques, movements of drogues in an effluent plume were traced. From these traces accurate velocity vectors were obtained. Photographic coordinates of drogue images were measured using a glass scale. From the photo coordinates and the results of a ground control survey, an analytical solution was made for positions of drogues in the water at known intervals of time. Drogue positions were mapped for selected exposures thereby providing a visual display of velocity vectors in the study area. A rigorous error analysis was performed to determine the validity of the computed results.     

Towards a new planning system for the 1990s and beyond

The paper outlines the emerging effects of the Information Technological revolution and examines the likely consequences for planning in Britain. A number of possible scenarios are described as a basis for thinking about the design of a new planning system for the future.     

Reconstructing human contributions to accidents: the new view on error and performance

PROBLEM: How can human contributions to accidents be reconstructed? Investigators can easily take the position a of retrospective outsider, looking back on a sequence of events that seems to lead to an inevitable outcome, and pointing out where people went wrong. This does not explain much, however, and may not help prevent recurrence. METHOD AND RESULTS: This paper examines how investigators can reconstruct the role that people contribute to accidents in light of what has recently become known as the new view of human error. The commitment of the new view is to move controversial human assessments and actions back into the flow of events of which they were part and which helped bring them forth, to see why assessments and actions made sense to people at the time. The second half of the paper addresses one way in which investigators can begin to reconstruct people's unfolding mindsets. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: In an era where a large portion of accidents are attributed to human error, it is critical to understand why people did what they did, rather than judging them for not doing what we now know they should have done. This paper helps investigators avoid the traps of hindsight by presenting a method with which investigators can begin to see how people's actions and assessments actually made sense at the time.