邻氯酚厌氧降解血清瓶试验的误差分析

采用自制的厌氧血清瓶,以2-氯酚(以下简称2-CP)为主要降解基质,研究了各种可能因素对试验试验结果的影响,并进行了误差分析。结果表明氮气吹脱、定容过程和滤膜过滤等试验操作所引起的试验误差很小,而基质挥发、污泥吸附导致的水样中2-氯酚浓度的降低量远小于微生物的降解量。因此利用血清瓶对2-氯酚进行厌氧生物降解的试验研究,可以较好地反应厌氧生物降解的基本规律,结果准确可靠,重现性好。     

冬小麦种植面积空间抽样单元尺寸优化设计

抽样单元尺寸是空间抽样调查方案设计过程中的关键要素。合理的抽样单元尺寸对降低抽样调查费用、改善抽样外推总体精度具有重要意义。为实现农作物种植面积空间抽样调查中抽样单元尺寸的优化设计,论文以河南省为研究区,以冬小麦种植面积为研究对象,选取正方形网格作为抽样单元,遵循传统抽样理论中抽样单元间相互独立原则,通过分析不同抽样单元尺寸与对应该尺寸下的抽样框内总体单元间全局空间自相关指数(Moran’s I)的相关关系,进行了抽样单元尺寸的初选。为最终实现抽样单元尺寸优选,基于初选的8种抽样单元尺寸,分别构建抽样框,采用以抽样单元内冬小麦面积占单元面积比例(麦土比)为分层标志的分层抽样方法进行了研究区冬小麦种植面积空间抽样样本抽选、总体外推及误差估计试验研究,结果表明:抽样比随抽样单元尺寸的增大而增大;8种抽样单元尺寸下的外推总体相对误差和变异系数均较小,变化范围分别为3.82%~5.75%和3.76％~4.69％;以抽样调查费用和抽样误差为抽样效率评价指标,优选出抽样单元尺寸为20 000 m×20 000 m时,进行研究区冬小麦种植面积抽样调查的效率最高。     

Spatial distribution of soil heavy metal pollution estimated by different interpolation methods: accuracy and uncertainty analysis

Mapping the spatial distribution of contaminants in soils is the basis of pollution evaluation and risk control. Interpolation methods are extensively applied in the mapping processes to estimate the heavy metal concentrations at unsampled sites. The performances of interpolation methods (inverse distance weighting, local polynomial, ordinary kriging and radial basis functions) were assessed and compared using the root mean square error for cross validation. The results indicated that all interpolation methods provided a high prediction accuracy of the mean concentration of soil heavy metals. However, the classic method based on percentages of polluted samples, gave a pollution area 23.54-41.92% larger than that estimated by interpolation methods. The difference in contaminated area estimation among the four methods reached 6.14%. According to the interpolation results, the spatial uncertainty of polluted areas was mainly located in three types of region: (a) the local maxima concentration region surrounded by low concentration (clean) sites, (b) the local minima concentration region surrounded with highly polluted samples; and (c) the boundaries of the contaminated areas.     

What is a static head measurement? Evaluating structural error and implications for regional groundwater modeling

Most groundwater modelers avoid using static heads measured from active production wells because they can introduce a bias into model calibration. However, in the deep confined Cambrian-Ordovician Sandstone Aquifer System in the Central Midcontinent of North America, dedicated observation wells are sparse and remote from areas of most concentrated pumping. As a result, in areas where drawdown is the greatest and modeling is most needed, only static heads from production wells are available for calibration. This paper evaluates two leading sources of discrepancies in using production well data, spatial and temporal structural error (S.E.). A simple Theis solution is used to evaluate the potential magnitude of spatial S.E. when calibrating a regional MODFLOW model with coarse cell resolution. Despite theoretical analyses indicating that spatial S.E. could be significant, statistical analysis of the model results suggests that temporal S.E. is dominant. Long (ranging over decades) or frequent (monthly) head datasets are key in understanding temporal S.E., to better capture water-level variability. In this study, the range in static head observations impacted estimates of the remaining time a well could extract water from the aquifer by 0.1 to 16.0 years. This uncertainty in future water supply is highly relevant to stakeholders and must be assessed in hydrographs depicting risk.     

化工罐区危险化学品倒装作业危害分析及控制

从避免事故和保证安全生产的角度,联系实际对危险化学品倒装过程进行了危害性分析,并根据分析结果对减少事故发生的措施进行了讨论,以降低作业过程的风险.     

人-机-环境系统工程在井下运输安全中的应用

运用人-机-环境系统工程理论,对煤矿井下运输系统中的人、机、环境三大要素及其对运输事故的影响进行分析,尤其是对人为失误的原因及其控制,人的模糊可靠性,运输事故与人的因素的关系,事件树分析,事故树分析,灰色关联分析,模糊聚类分析以及灰色综合评判等进行了深入的研究,提出了相应的控制措施。     

Why did the pilots shut down the wrong engine? Explaining errors in context using Schema Theory and the Perceptual Cycle Model

Although human error remains a dominant issue in aviation research, methods that predict human error have been criticised for not providing adequate causal explanations, rather they have focused on classification. The concept of Schemata has prevailed in the literature and has been shown to describe the contextual causes of human error. The purpose of this paper is to review the recent error literature and demonstrate that Schema Theory (as incorporated in the Perceptual Cycle framework) offers a compelling causal account of human error. Schema Theory offers a system perspective with a focus on human activity in context to explain why apparently erroneous actions occurred, even though they may have appeared to be appropriate at the time. This is exemplified in a case study of the pilots’ actions preceding the 1989 Kegworth accident. Schema Theory is presented as a promising avenue for further exploration into the context of human error in aviation.     

Determining Decision Thresholds and Evaluating Indicators when Conservation Status is Measured as a Continuum

Categorization of the status of populations, species, and ecosystems underpins most conservation activities. Status is often based on how a system's current indicator value (e.g., change in abundance) relates to some threshold of conservation concern. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves can be used to quantify the statistical reliability of indicators of conservation status and evaluate trade‐offs between correct (true positive) and incorrect (false positive) classifications across a range of decision thresholds. However, ROC curves assume a discrete, binary relationship between an indicator and the conservation status it is meant to track, which is a simplification of the more realistic continuum of conservation status, and may limit the applicability of ROC curves in conservation science. We describe a modified ROC curve that treats conservation status as a continuum rather than a discrete state. We explored the influence of this continuum and typical sources of variation in abundance that can lead to classification errors (i.e., random variation and measurement error) on the true and false positive rates corresponding to varying decision thresholds and the reliability of change in abundance as an indicator of conservation status, respectively. We applied our modified ROC approach to an indicator of endangerment in Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) (i.e., percent decline in geometric mean abundance) and an indicator of marine ecosystem structure and function (i.e., detritivore biomass). Failure to treat conservation status as a continuum when choosing thresholds for indicators resulted in the misidentification of trade‐offs between true and false positive rates and the overestimation of an indicator's reliability. We argue for treating conservation status as a continuum when ROC curves are used to evaluate decision thresholds in indicators for the assessment of conservation status. Determinación de Umbrales de Decisiones y Evaluación delos Indicadores cuando se Mide el Estado de de Conservación como un Continuo     

城市路面径流污染负荷及采样次数对其估算准确性的影响

在西安市城市主干道南二环路建立路面径流原位采样站,利用自制流量等比例采样装置,采集2009年3月-2010年2月的36场降雨径流,测试各场次径流SS、COD、溶解性COD、NH4-N、Pb、Zn和溶解态Pb、Zn的事件平均浓度(EMC),计算径流年污染负荷,并采用随机抽样方法研究采样次数对污染负荷估算准确性的影响.结果...