CREAM-based communication error analysis method (CEAM) for nuclear power plant operators’ communication

Communication error has been considered a primary cause of many incidents and accidents in the nuclear industry. In order to prevent these accidents, a method for the analysis of such communication errors is proposed here. This paper presents a qualitative and a quantitative method to analyze communication errors. The qualitative method focuses on finding a root cause of the communication error and predicting the type of communication error which could happen in nuclear power plants. We develop context conditions and antecedent-consequent links of influential factors related to communication errors. The quantitative analysis method focuses on estimating the probability of communication errors. To accomplish the quantification of communication errors, the Cognitive Speaking Process (CSP) is defined and a method to estimate the weighting factors and the probability is suggested. Finally, case studies conducted to validate the applicability of the proposed methods are detailed. From the results, we can foresee the effects of given plant conditions on communication errors and reduce the error occurrences.     

Implementing an effective conduct of operations and operational discipline program

This paper introduces the concepts of conduct of operations (COO) and operational discipline (OD), the attributes of effective COO/OD systems, and the steps an organization might take to improve its COO/OD programs. In general, the COO program encompasses the management systems developed to encourage performance of all tasks in a consistent, appropriate manner. OD is the deliberate and structured execution of the COO management systems by personnel throughout the organization. By introducing a framework and tools for describing, evaluating, and improving COO/OD, this paper provides guidance that can be used by companies to improve process safety performance.     

我国中小城镇污水治理现状

随着近几年中小城市发展进程的加快,城市中日益暴露出各方面的问题与弊端,污水治理问题显得尤为突出和严重。污水排放大量增加对我国中小城市水环境造成了严重的污染和破坏,因此对污水处理技术的选择与考量十分迫切。基于我国国情,我国是发展中国家,财力有限。因此用于基础设施上的资金在大城市和中小城镇之间的分配比重严重失衡,中小城镇污水的处理率相对较低。这就决定了中小城镇在选择污水处理技术时,首先要考虑的因素必须是经济、高效、节能和简便易行。     

COD在线监测仪器比对监测采样误差分析研究

化学需氧量(COD)和悬浮物(SS)是衡量污水对外界环境的污染程度的重要指标.化学需氧量是指在强酸并加热条件下,用重铬酸钾作为氧化剂处理水样时所消耗氧化剂的量.悬浮物即"不可滤残渣"是指将水过滤后留在过滤材料上的物质.针对引起比对分析监测结果中采样环节误差的原因,从理化概念入手,分析了环境样品随沉降时间不同引起的CODcr值的变化,以及CODcr值与SS值的相关性,并提出了相应的对策.以提高COD在线监测结果的科学性、可靠性,使其更好地发挥COD在线监测仪在环境管理中的作用,为污染减排和污染物总量控制工作提供准确、科学的技术支持.     

降水产流同位素径流分割研究进展与展望

降水产流是陆地水循环中大气降水补给地表水的重要环节。氢氧稳定同位素的指纹效应能够有效示踪径流的补给来源、路径和地理区域。同位素径流分割模型已从二元分割逐渐发展到三元乃至多元分割模型,多学科交叉也逐渐丰富了径流分割研究的方法体系。本文对同位素径流分割在降水产流中的应用进展作了总结分析,介绍了环境同位素（²H和¹⁸O）在降水产流研究中的应用现状、存在的不确定性以及处理误差的方法和应用特点。最后对环境同位素在径流分割领域的应用前景进行了论述,提出环境同位素结合GIS、InSAR、ERT等地球物理方法,将进一步深化流域水文要素时空变化的研究。     

民航运行中的威胁与差错管理

在民航运行中的威胁与差错管理的理论基础上,指出威胁与差错管理的目标并非消除威胁与差错,而是把其危害控制在一个可以接受的范围以内。分别界定了威胁、差错、非期望状况的概念,优化了威胁与差错管理的模型,并给予详细的实证分析。进一步丰富了威胁与差错管理的框架形式,提出了系统完善策略。该研究取得的成果有助于民航业从主动控制的角度提升安全效能。     

Aerial lift fall injuries: a surveillance and evaluation approach for targeting prevention activities

PROBLEM: Work on aerial lift platforms exposes workers to fall hazards. The objective of this study was to identify the most common injury scenarios and determine current research gaps for addressing fall incidents associated with aerial lifts. METHODS: Three databases were searched: Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries (CFOI), NIOSH Fatality Assessment and Control Evaluation (FACE) reports, and OSHA Incident Investigation Records. RESULTS: The majority of falls/collapses/tipovers were within the height-category of 10-29 feet. Tipovers comprised 44-46% of boom-lift falls and 56-59% of scissor-lift falls. Constructing and repairing activities were most commonly associated with fall/collapse/tipover incidents. DISCUSSION: CFOI and OSHA/FACE show convergent data, suggesting similar scenarios for aerial lift tipovers. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The analysis provides the aerial lift industry information to prioritize their efforts on aerial lift design.     

大气中多环芳烃气/粒分配的不确定性分析

于2010年8月10～14日用双层石英膜和双层聚氨酯泡沫（PUF）的方法采集并分析了厦门大学海洋楼顶大气中气态和颗粒态多环芳烃（PAHs）,并采用标准误差传递方法对气/粒分配系数（K_p）的不确定度进行了分析.测量结果显示,低分子量PAHs如萘、 苊、 二氢苊和芴在PUF吸附体系中的穿透能力最强,穿透率接近50％;如考虑第一层石英滤膜对气态萘、 苊和二氢苊的吸附影响,则校正后的K_p值比校正前相应的K_p值低1个数量级以上.采用标准误差传递方法得到PAHs气/粒分配系数K_p的不确定度,介于28.14%～50.37%之间,且表现为易挥发和难挥发性PAHs的K_p值皆具有较高的不确定度,而半挥发性PAHs的K_p值的不确定度则较小.K_p值的不确定度来源分析显示,气态PAHs浓度的不确定度的影响最大（方差贡献均值=77.9％）,其次为颗粒态PAHs浓度的不确定度（方差贡献均值=22.0％）,大气颗粒物浓度的不确定度影响最小（方差贡献均值=0.1％）.因此,选择合适的采样系统以获取更加准确的气态PAHs的浓度,是提高PAHs气/粒分配系数准确度的关键.     

气象参数对基于BP神经网络的PM2.5日均值预报模型的影响

建立了基于BP神经网络的PM2.5质量浓度预报模型,对广州市5个监测点2012年6月-2013年5月的PM2.5质量浓度日均值进行预报,分析了总体预报误差、不同风速和降雨量下的预报误差,以及天气预报误差对PM2.5质量浓度预报误差的影响.结果表明,BP神经网络模型对5个站点的PM2.5预报结果稳定,平均相对误差为29.71％.在有利于PM2.5扩散的气象条件下预报误差较大,风速较大时与风速较小时预报误差的差异高达15％,而不同降雨量情况下的预报误差较相近.修正天气预报后,各站点的预报误差平均降低了4.67％.这表明可从空气质量数据质量等方面人手改进模型.     

基于AHP-SLIM的航空器维修人误概率确定

人误是造成民用航空维修差错的主要因素。由于缺少实际的数据,对航空维修行业人为失误发生的规律进行研究是必要的,但是规律研究主要依赖于该领域专家的判断,很难确保一致性。为了克服这个困难得到更加准确的评估,本文将层次分析法同成功似然函数结合起来估计造成飞机/发动机/附件损坏的人误概率。该方法确定了航空器维修人员的安全态度、知识和技能、计划和监管、信息沟通等因素,对人误的影响程度以及飞机/发动机/附件损坏中常见人误的发生概率。计算结果表明,操作/试验时最容易发生飞机/发动机/附件损坏,并且提出加强组织和监管、严格按章办事等解决措施。